Over the past year, the Alma Center has been researching the mix of the military and civilian establishment of the radical Shiite axis headed by Iran in southern Syria. In 2020, we published a number of research reports on the subject that dealt with Shiite militias, the deployment of Hezbollah (Southern Command and the Golan File units), and the civilian establishment. In the near future, we also intend to publish a report on the local militias in southern Syria loyal to the radical Shiite axis.
Here are key insights from our research effort so far:
- Southern Syria will become like southern Lebanon in a few years (the “Hezbollah model”) – the final loss of “Syrian independence”.
- The civilian establishment will allow widespread use of the “human shield” tactic – affecting the IDF’s freedom of activity.
- Like Lebanon, many civilian households will be used for military purposes (weapons storages, missile launch sites, observation posts, etc.).
- Like UNIFIL in Lebanon, UNDOF’s freedom of movement and activity will be limited (entry to villages, movement on roads, etc.).
- Increasing conflict with the Russians and executing attacks on them.
- Americans are not part of the picture in southern Syria near the Israeli border.