Various reports indicate that Hezbollah is on high alert toward a possible confrontation with Israel due to the negotiations over the maritime borders. According to various reports, Hezbollah is on its highest alert since 2006. According to those reports, Hezbollah recently conducted a competency test for its command posts and military communications system. Hezbollah’s reserve array was put on alert (Hezbollah had between 20,000 and 30,000 reservists), Hezbollah units were called back to Lebanon from Syria, and operatives in south Lebanon were reinforced.
In our assessment, Hezbollah is indeed on alert. We are referring to Nasrallah’s “preparing the hearts” (religious and ideological) open campaign underway in recent weeks for a possible confrontation with Israel.
Recently, we have received a version of an internal Hezbollah flyer evidently addressing Hezbollah operatives and encouraging them religiously, spiritually, and mentally in preparation for possible combat (the authenticity of the flyer has not been verified by us). The flyer declares that victory is imminent, the commanders and operatives are ready, and “Sahib-al Zaman” (the Mahdi’s nickname) stands alongside the activists. It also states that the enemy (Israel) is frightened and trembling in his house.
The flyer mentions three battles fought by Hezbollah, regarded by them “heroic victories“: the Battle of Maydoun in 1988, in which Hezbollah fought against the IDF, the Battle of Dabsha, in which Hezbollah operatives managed to hoist their banner on the outskirts of an IDF post (the “Dla’at” outpost) in the security zone in 1994, and Jarrod – referring to the battles against ISIS and the Syrian rebels in Al-Qalamoun and Arsal (Lebanon-Syria border) during the Syrian civil war.
We assess that Hezbollah is keeping all options on the table (i.e., the nature and course of action), i.e., limited/full action, with a readiness to act by air and/or sea and/or land.
It should be noted that we recently noticed that one of Hezbollah’s positions (“Green Without Borders”), located in the geographical area between the Israeli communities of Yir’on and Bar’am (the area of the village of Yaroun in Lebanon), has “disappeared” from the territory. It is not clear if its location has been changed to a more hidden location or if it has simply been dismantled. Is it about Hezbollah preparing for a possible confrontation and preventing Israeli fire as an immediate response to Hezbollah’s exposed targets? At this stage, the matter is not clear.
We haven’t yet noticed that other similar positions of Hezbollah near the border changed their location or were dismantled. If, as part of Hezbollah’s preparations, the presence of Hezbollah operatives in the positions was canceled, in order not to be a target, it is highly probable that this is another step in Hezbollah’s preparations for a possible confrontation.