We estimate that There is an increased chance Hezbollah will execute military action against the IDF forces building the barrier along the blue line:
During the construction of the barrier the IDF is constructing on the blue line along the Israeli-Lebanese border, an operational accident occurred on March 21, 2023, when an anti-personnel mine exploded, injuring two IDF soldiers. The explosion occurred in an area known by the Lebanese as Haraj al-Rahab, near the Lebanese villages of Ita al-Sha’ab and the Israeli community Shtula.
This is an area where there is a well-known and marked minefield that was laid by Israel many years ago. The mine that exploded was swept through the ground about 30 meters from the minefield; its detonation was not an initiated action against IDF soldiers.
In the present case, the explosion of the mine is due to an accident. Next time, Hezbollah may take proactive action. Hezbollah is deeply concerned about the construction of the Israeli barrier along the blue line. Hezbollah’s provocations against the building efforts, among other things, through the Lebanese army, have been unsuccessful until now. Following the attack in Megiddo on March 13, 2023, will Hezbollah continue to manage risks concerning an Israeli response (containment, limited response, or broad escalation)?
As of the summer of 2022, we notice a change in Hezbollah’s doctrine. Hezbollah is willing to manage risks vis-à-vis Israel to the point of risking deterioration into war. The political situation in Israel adds to Hezbollah’s self-confidence. The attack in Megiddo is a leap forward and, in fact, deviates greatly from the “rules of the game” and “equations” created vis-à-vis the Lebanese arena. A ground incursion into Israeli territory to carry out terrorist attacks against civilians has not occurred since 2006. The operational and cognitive significance of a ground incursion deep into Israeli territory is significantly greater than the firing of rockets or the piloting of a UAV into Israeli territory from time to time.
We estimate that there is a moderate to high probability that Hezbollah will decide to step up its response against the construction works. If the terrorist attack against civilians in Megiddo originated from Lebanon, under the accountability or sponsorship of Hezbollah, our assessment is that the day is not far when Hezbollah decides to take limited military action against IDF forces constructing the barrier, either with sniper fire, the placing of mines or IEDs or by firing anti-tank weapons, all while managing the risk that such an action could lead to war against Israel.
