Ian J. McCary, the US deputy special envoy to Syria, stated on June 3 that “the purpose of the international force in Syria and Iraq is going to shift significantly since ISIS has been virtually crushed… The forces will now focus on humanitarian rehabilitation work, particularly regarding the al-Hawl refugee camp in northern Kurdish-controlled Syria”.
Is the above comment, among other things, a foreshadowing of what is to come in terms of the American presence in al-Tanf (Southeastern Syria), the primary goal of which was to defeat ISIS in this area?
The American presence in al-Tanf today, along with the opposition forces they support (Maghawir al-Thawra), severely limits Iranian activity in the land corridor and, as an operational constraint, redirects them to one central geographical area in the Albukamal area – Deir ez-Zor.
The Americans at al-Tanf obstruct the Iranians’ possible short, rapid route into Syria and Lebanon. The crossing in the al-Tanf area, also known as the Al-Waleed crossing in Iraq, is the shortest and fastest land territorial contiguity from Iran to Iraq, then to Syria, and finally to Lebanon – Hezbollah.
The geographical area of al-Tanf provides a type of autonomy for anti-Assad forces stationed there under the auspices of an American military umbrella. This is to the dismay of Syrians, Iranians, and Russians, who highlight (of course…) that America’s presence, without invitation and coordination with the Assad regime, violates international law.
The al-Tanf area is not impenetrable to smugglers. Smuggling efforts, mostly of narcotics, occur from time to time. Iran and the extremist Shiite Axis attempt to challenge American and opposition forces through smuggling attempts and attacks (UAVs/rockets). However, we assess that large weaponry transfers will not occur on this route as long as an American presence exists.
A US withdrawal from al-Tanf would also hasten and intensify Iran’s entrenchment in southern Syria. The direct geographical proximity to southern Syria, from al-Tanf to the Syrian Golan Heights, will significantly contribute to the civilian and military entrenchment of the Shiite axis in southern Syria, close to the Jordanian and Israeli borders. In other words, even a minimal American presence in al-Tanf disrupts the ideology of exporting the Islamic Revolution.
In conclusion, the withdrawal of the United States from al-Tanf (southeastern Syria) may intensify Iran’s entrenchment in southern Syria and will greatly assist the Iranian efforts to transfer advanced conventional weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
