The shooting at the fence (July 6) near the village of Ghajar was carried out by an anti-tank missile. The type of missile is unknown at this time. The existing arsenal ranges from the simplest and least accurate weapon, intended for a relatively short range, such as the RPG7 (about 900 meters in daylight) to the accurate and advanced Kornet intended for long range (up to 8 kilometers in daylight). Assuming that the eye witness impact photo is authentic, if the shooting was carried out from a short range, it is possible that it was carried out from the west (Arab El Louaizeh area), from a sector of fire out to roughly 600 meters in our estimation. If the shooting was carried out from a long range, it is possible that it was carried out from the north (El Khiam area) from a sector of fire out to roughly 4 kilometers in our estimation.

As far as Lebanon and Hezbollah are concerned, the dispute does not end in the Mount Dov area (“Shebaa Farm” and Ghajar village). From their point of view, there is a dispute over additional areas along the blue line (marked as red lines over the blue line on the attached map). It seems that Hezbollah’s current Ghajar campaign, which we believe the July 6th anti-tank fire is related to, created an equation supported by Lebanese government: Hezbollah’s encampment on Mount Dov will be evacuated, if Israel withdraws from the “annexed” (their words) northern part of Ghajar. This village is originally Alawite-Syrian. As of May 2000, the blue line cuts it in two. Today, all its residents on both sides of the line are Israeli citizens. About a year ago, fencing was built around the northern part to protect the residents, disrupt smuggling, and stop land infiltrations from Lebanon for which Hezbollah is responsible. Hezbollah is “remembering” now, at a time convenient to it, that Israel has “annexed” the entire village. In our estimation, Hezbollah’s conduct in recent months shows that they are headed for a confrontation.

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Tal Beeri

Tal Beeri

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