Nothing is accidental. We recognize a clear pattern of Hezbollah in the last month and a half to create friction and escalation in the disputed areas on the blue line (the 13 areas marked with a red line on the map and three more areas in the eastern sector: Ghajar village, Shuba hill, and Sheba farm):
June 2023 – Placing tents in the disputed area in Shuba village.
July 5 – crossing the blue line into Israeli territory in the disputed area in Meiss Ej Jabal
July 6 – anti-tank fire in the disputed area in Ghajar village.
July 12 – attempted sabotage of the fence in the disputed area in El Bastan.
We estimate that the pattern will continue and escalate. In our estimation, the next escalation between Hezbollah and Israel is only a matter of time, and it will carry out direct offensive action against the IDF forces near the fence with an emphasis on one of the disputed areas.
