OceanTrans’s drilling rig arrived in Lebanon’s Block 9 today to begin exploration in the Qana gas field. The Lebanese government highlighted the rig’s arrival and raised hopes that this would signal the start of Lebanon’s recovery from the crisis it experienced in recent years.
A consortium that includes the state-owned QatarEnergy, French Toal, and Italian ENI is in charge of the drilling. Despite the joy seen in Lebanon at the rig’s arrival and the start of the exploration, there are a few points that need mentioning.
First of all, there is no certainty as to the amount of gas or oil found in Qana Field, if any. In addition, Lebanon currently has no infrastructure for transporting, treating, and exporting gas, and it is expected that it will take several years to build such infrastructure.
And finally, even if gas is found, Lebanon’s share is expected to be around 60% of the revenue. Hezbollah’s involvement in the local politics and economic system, along with the widespread corruption, raises the question of how much money will end up in the state treasury.
It is important to remember that the rig’s arrival was made possible following the signing of the maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon in October 2022 and after Nasrallah’s threats of war. Lebanon will have its first results by the end of the year.
Can this development be a stabilizing factor that will stop the possibility of escalation with Israel?
