Trends in Hezbollah’s firing toward non-evacuated areas (above 5 km from the border)
Out of all the strikes conducted by Hezbollah that were examined in the “Analysis of the intensity and scope of attacks against Israel (October 8, 2023, to July 1, 2024)” graph, 5.7% occurred in non-evacuated areas. Specifically, the distance of these attacks exceeds 5 kilometers from the Israel-Lebanon border (as indicated in the map issued by us on July 2).
An empirical examination of Hezbollah’s assaults on areas situated beyond a 5 km radius of the border reveals a consistent increase in the frequency of their strikes on non-evacuated areas since the commencement of the conflict.
The elimination of prominent leaders appears to be the primary catalyst for the increasing trend. Throughout the progression of the war, Israel successfully eliminated high-ranking Hezbollah leaders and operatives, as well as targeted high-value targets deep in Lebanon. In response, Hezbollah retaliated by increasing the areas in which it launched attacks (For example, an Israeli attack in the Bekaa, will often be answered by firing rockets into the Golan Heights). Hezbollah is striving to uphold a consistent pattern of strikes against Israel, as part of their strategy for retaining their offensive capabilities.
These notable eliminations are depicted in the accompanying graph, which highlights the killing of the de facto leader of the Radwan force, the regional commanders, and the commander of the Nasser unit. During the month of their elimination, there was a surge in the extent of fire spreading to areas located more than 5 kilometers away from the border.
Furthermore, there is a correlation between the duration of the conflict and the escalation of Hezbollah’s retaliatory strikes. This is seen in their pursuit of more significant targets and expanding the range of their operations, indicating a growing sense of self-assurance among Hezbollah.
It is crucial to highlight that the data exhibited only includes the count of events, not the quantity of munitions. On June 27 shooting events occurred beyond a 5-kilometer distance, involving the firing of numerous rockets, sometimes in the hundreds.
Nevertheless, it should be emphasized that the proportion of Hezbollah assaults targeting the non-evacuated areas is quite low, amounting to only 5.7%. however, most rocket attacks in this region are executed with a considerable quantity of rockets that lack precision, making them unreliable as statistical weapons. Consequently, this significantly heightens the likelihood of harm to non-combatants in these areas who have not been evacuated.
The Lebanese arena:
War data:
In Israel, the government evacuated 43 communities located up to five kilometers from the Lebanese border. A total of about 61,000 citizens. To them were added several thousand more who decided to evacuate independently.
It should be noted that some of the Israeli communities have not been fully evacuated and there is a civilian presence there (agriculture and industry).
The Israeli government has extended the evacuation period until 31 August 2024.
Hezbollah has caused the death of 10 Israeli civilians and one agricultural worker with foreign citizenship so far. A total of 11 civilians and 19 IDF soldiers were killed. Just this last week (July 8-15), 3 Israelis were killed, and 4 others were injured because of Hezbollah attacks.
During the past week, 52 attacks were carried out on the northern border, of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 44 attacks against Israel, utilizing high-trajectory fire (including Grad, Falaq, and Burkan rockets), anti-tank missiles, and suicide UAVs.
There has been no claim of responsibility for 8 incidents, of these, 6 incidents in which UAVs were intercepted, a single launch from Syria to the southern Golan Heights, and a single launch to the Adamit area.
On July 13, a Lebanese organization called “Saraya” acknowledged their involvement in an assault on an IDF outpost located in the Shebaa Farms region. There were no other indications of an assault. This group functions as a regional paramilitary force acting as a proxy of Hezbollah, and it consists of individuals who are not of the Shiite sect. According to Lebanese reports, the conflict has resulted in the deaths of two militia operatives. Since the commencement of the conflict in October 2023, this is the initial instance that the group has acknowledged accountability for attacks on Israel.
Since the beginning of the war, 2,410 attacks have been carried out in the northern arena, the vast majority of which were carried out by Hezbollah.
Prominent launching and shooting incidents against Israel:
(July 8) Hezbollah fired Grad rockets at the communities of HaGoshrim and Yesud Hamala and anti-tank missiles at the communities of Metula and Manara. According to Hezbollah, the strikes were carried out in response to IDF attacks in Lebanon.
(July 9-10) Hezbollah’s response to the elimination of Yasser Nimr Karnabash in Syria, who was apparently a senior operative and possibly even a commander in Unit 4400 – Hezbollah’s network responsible for transferring weapons to Lebanon (see details below in the Syria section). Hezbollah carried out two attacks: the first was the launching of about 40 Grad rockets into the Golan Heights. As a result of the launches, two civilians traveling in their vehicle were killed. In another attack, Hezbollah launched suicide UAVs that exploded near the customs house, injuring one female soldier.
(July 11) Hezbollah launched suicide UAVs toward the Kibbutz Kabri region of Western Galilee, killing one soldier.
During the Hezbollah attack on the Kibbutz Kabri area, we observed the utilization of a Shahed 101 suicide UAV equipped with an electric power system, marking the first known instance of such technology being employed. For more information, see the related article.
(July 11) Hezbollah fired an ML-20 cannon toward houses in Moshav Shtula. For further information, see the article “Hezbollah – Using an ML-20 Cannon from an Underground Position in firing at Shtula (July 11).” The strike damaged a bed and breakfast complex in the community that burned down.
(July 13) Hezbollah launched around 23 Grad missiles on the city of Kiryat Shmona. Four female soldiers sustained injuries while property and infrastructure were damaged.
Eliminations of senior Hezbollah figures
Since October 8, 2023, 35 senior Hezbollah operatives were eliminated. 40% of them, a total of 14, belonged to the geographic units (southern front) with an emphasis on the Nasser unit, including the unit’s commander – Haj Abu Taleb, and Aziz unit commander Ahmad Naama Nasser. Approximately 28.6% of the Radwan unit, which amounts to 10 individuals, including the unit’s acting leader, Wassam al-Tawil were eliminated as well. The primary focus of the Radwan unit and geographical units was on removing sector leaders (like brigade commanders) and commanders in specialized arrays (such as rockets/anti-tanks, etc.). In addition, 3 high-ranking operatives from Hezbollah’s air unit, 3 individuals from Hezbollah’s air defense system, and a senior agent in Hezbollah’s weapons transfer operation from Syria to Lebanon were eliminated. Out of the total number of people killed, 4 individuals, which is equivalent to 11.4%, were experts in the areas of research, development, manufacture of weapons, and combat support technologies.
Elimination attempts are critical and necessary. Regardless of the eliminations, Hezbollah has operational and command continuity. This endeavor cannot be the primary focus, but rather a concurrent and supplementary effort to the focus, which is to cause significant harm to Hezbollah’s tactical fire systems and military infrastructure on the southern front, as well as extensive damage to Hezbollah’s strategic fire systems and infrastructure in depth.
Prominent airstrikes in Lebanon
(July 8) An airstrike in the Al-Qalailah area eliminated Mustafa Hassan Salman, a key operative in Hezbollah’s rocket and missile unit, who had taken part in planning and executing a variety of terrorist activities against the State of Israel.
(July 10) The IDF launched an offensive against two air defense facilities belonging to Hezbollah in the Janta region, located in the Bekaa Valley, deep in Lebanese territory. Apparently, as a reaction to the launch of around 40 Grad missiles at the central area of the Golan Heights, resulting in the deaths of the civilian couple Noa and Nir Baranes.
Hezbollah – General:
(July 9) Hezbollah recently published a new video captured by its UAVs within Israeli territory. The clip depicted a range of bases and locations captured across the Golan Heights and Mount Hermon, spanning from Tel Fares in the southern Golan Heights to Mount Hermon outposts in the northern region. For further information, see the article Analyzing the Hezbollah 2 UAV video in the Golan Heights.
Furthermore, we try to offer you a photographed product of activities on the Lebanese side. Our product comes from the ground and from within the streets. This time from Beirut, where an Al-Jamāʻah al-islāmīyah, Hezbollah’s major collaborators in the struggle against Israel, complex is located.
(July 10) Nasrallah’s speech in memory of Muhammad Naama Nasser, commander of the Aziz unit:
Nasrallah reiterated the claim that if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza, the Lebanese front will also be committed to the ceasefire, because, he claims, it is only a “support front.” However, he adds that if the conflict turns into an all-out war, Hezbollah is prepared for it and is not afraid of it.
Nasrallah revealed for the first time that after the Second Lebanon War, it was decided to divide the southern Litani region between the Nasser unit, in charge of the eastern sector, and the Aziz unit, in charge of the western sector. Nasrallah revealed that he was close to the two commanders of these units, both of whom Israel eliminated in less than a month.
Nasrallah demonstrated proficiency in current events and the Israeli media, which, he claims, portrays the difficult internal situation prevailing in Israel because of the war. Nasrallah repeatedly emphasized the familiar narrative (as in every speech he made during the current war): Israel is failing in the war in Gaza and it is not achieving any of its goals. Therefore, he claims that the resistance axis is on its way to victory over Israel.
Nasrallah added that the Lebanese front achieved its goals and pressured Israel to choose two options: surrender or annihilation. According to him, at first, Israel demanded that Hezbollah withdraw 3 km from the border, and then Hezbollah exposed the Kornet weapon with a range of 8 km. Then Israel demanded that Hezbollah move away by 8 km, and then Hezbollah exposed the Almas missile, which has a range of 10 km. Therefore, Israel is now demanding that Hezbollah withdraw by 10 km from the border. Nasrallah also claimed that there are fewer threats from Israel regarding the start of an all-out war on the Lebanese front because Israel knows that Hezbollah is ready. Evidence that Hezbollah is not afraid of war is its response to Israel’s eliminations, while Israel’s responses are limited.
At the end of his speech, Nasrallah thanked Iran’s president-elect for a telegram he sent him and for his position of total support for the resistance.
(July 13) Nasrallah’s additional speech on the occasion of Ashura:
“One of the factors in preserving the good life is when social life is exposed to danger and the threat of aggression and the confiscation of will and decision, here comes the legislation of holy defense, jihad, martyrdom and redemption, and all this culture comes as part of the good life… Honor and pride can only be achieved through the possession of power, resistance, and deterrence in the face of the aggressor, resistance creates the culture of life and America spreads the culture of death.”
(July 13) Following a confrontation that developed into gunfire in the Madi neighborhood in Beirut’s southern suburbs, between a resident, an Amal movement member, and Hezbollah security that prevented him from entering the area with his car, Hezbollah operative, Samir Eid Qabbani, commander of the Madi area of Dahiya, was killed.
Amal and Hezbollah leadership released a statement on the day, providing details on what had happened in the Madi area in Beirut’s southern suburbs. The statement said that a personal issue escalated into a gunshot incident, causing the unintended harm and subsequent demise of Mr. Samir Qabbani. According to the statement, after the incident, the army deployed extensively and took action to arrest those responsible. Additionally, the leadership of the Amal movement and Hezbollah expressed their condolences to the family of the deceased and stressed; “the importance of maintaining security through official forces and security services.”
Hamas Lebanon
(July 13) The death of Mohammed Deif, the leader of Hamas’ military-terrorist wing, in the Khan Yunis region of the Gaza Strip has not yet been fully confirmed. Both Hamas and the Shiite Axis currently maintain that Deif is alive. In the event of confirmed reports and a public declaration of his killing, Hamas-Lebanon, in coordination with Hezbollah, may mount a substantial retaliatory response against Israel. If Hamas-Lebanon retaliates, there is a potential for their retaliation to involve launching rockets toward regions in northern Israel that are located outside the 5-kilometer distance. The raid on Deif on July 13 resulted in the confirmed death of Rafa’a Salameh, the leader of Hamas’ Khan Yunis Brigade.
Lebanon – General:
(July 11) 350 Syrian refugees who had been in Lebanon voluntarily returned to Syrian territory through the border centers of General Security in Arsal and Al-Qaa. This was done in coordination with the security authorities on the Syrian side and in the presence of UNHCR observers.
(July 12) When UNIFIL vehicles passed through the area of Al-Hush in the city of Tyre, residents blocked their way, claiming that they could not enter their area without a Lebanese army escort vehicle.
(July 13) During an interview with MTV, the Lebanese minister of energy and water discussed the significant issues regarding the electricity supply in Lebanon. He mentioned that due to the heat, he struggles to sleep and resorts to using a fan attached to a generator instead of an air conditioner. The interview occurred in the context of the minister’s assertion that if payment for the fuel supply from Iraq is not settled, the power plants will cease operations entirely. Additionally, sources indicate that Beirut’s international airport is now operating on generators.
The Syrian arena:
(July 9) A targeted aerial attack occurred on Route 1, located west of Damascus, near Sabora and Yafour. This attack resulted in the death of Yasser Nimr Karnabash, who was also known by the aliases “Haj Abu al-Fadl” and “Amin”. Karnabash was born in 1970 and originated from the village of Zuter al-Sharqiyah in southern Lebanon. The mentioned route is a major roadway that links Damascus to the border crossing between Syria and Lebanon, specifically known as the Jedeidat Yabus-Al-Misana crossing. He formerly served as Hassan Nasrallah’s personal security. Multiple accounts suggest that he perhaps held a high-ranking position and potentially even a commander within Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, which is responsible for facilitating weaponry supplies to Lebanon.
(July 10) The IDF employed tanks and artillery to attack the Syrian army’s military infrastructure, which violated the 1974 separation of forces agreement between Israel and Syria in the buffer zone. Following the attack, reports emerged in Syria stating that leaflets had been distributed, declaring that Israel would not tolerate the presence of armed military forces in the demilitarized zone, as specified in the 1974 troop deposit agreement. The leaflets also warned that Israel would retaliate against any military base that violated the terms of the agreement.
(July 13) Following the incursion of 2 UAVs into the Eilat region via Syrian territory, the IDF launched an offensive against a central command center located in the Kafr Susa suburb of Damascus. Furthermore, the military infrastructure and targets utilized by the Syrian Army’s air defense system were targeted, namely in the Dumar region. It appears that one Syrian soldier has been killed.
Syria – General:
(July 10) An official announcement by the U.S. Embassy in Syria said that since the beginning of the war in Syria in 2011, Bashar al-Assad’s regime has been a source of regional instability. This regime is committing grave atrocities against its people and creating a humanitarian crisis due to corruption and mismanagement. The embassy, which has been closed since February 2012, said it would continue to shed light on human rights violations in Syria and the United States would act against those responsible.
(July 12) Several rockets were fired from Syria toward the southern Golan Heights. The rockets fell in open areas and there were no casualties. No organization claimed responsibility for the launches. The IDF returned fire at Syrian Army targets in the Daraa province. One Syrian soldier was apparently killed.
Shiite Axis – General
The latest attack on American sites in Iraq and Syria by Shiite militias, as publicly documented by US Central Command, occurred on February 20th. Multiple accounts indicate that the attacks on American bases ceased because of explicit directives from Iran to the Shiite militias, considering undisclosed agreements between Iran and the United States.
Subsequently, as per several local accounts, Shiite militias have executed 7 assaults on American bases, without any organization taking responsibility and the Americans refraining from reporting them. While we acknowledge the occurrence of airstrikes, it is important to note that the US Central Command has not yet provided official confirmation, as it had done before February 20.
During the past week (July 8-15) the Islamic resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for 3 attacks against Israel, including an attack on a power plant in Hadera, a vital Israeli infrastructure. There have been no indications of attacks. In addition, in an incident for which no responsibility was taken, two UAVs on route to Israel from Syrian territory to the Eilat area were intercepted by the IDF.
Yemen – Houthi-land:
During the past week, coalition forces managed to strike 9 UAVs and 6 explosive boats which posed an immediate threat to the freedom of movement in international waters.
Since October 2023, there have been 185 Houthi attacks against Israel, the United States, and other targets.
