This week has seen a substantial increase in Hezbollah rocket firing reaching distances of more than 5 kilometers and targeting communities that have not been evacuated. Hezbollah is taking a calculated risk. The intensity of its retaliation intensifies the possibility of escalation, and it appears that Hezbollah is exhibiting self-confidence, at least in terms of its efforts to broaden the range and targets of the rocket firing.
From July 16 to July 22, Hezbollah launched 16 strikes to a range of more than 5 kilometers. Apart from five attacks on military targets, eleven strikes targeted civilian communities that had not been evacuated.
According to local reports in Lebanon, five Syrian refugees were killed on July 15-16, 2024, including 3 children and 2 Lebanese women, when they were with their brother, a Hezbollah operative. Hezbollah retaliated with a massive barrage toward the city of Kiryat Shmona and communities further than 5 kilometers from the border, communities that are not evacuated of residents: Kabri, Kfar Hoshen, Meron, Bar Yochai, Sa’ar, and Gesher HaZiv.
Nasrallah mentioned these occurrences at a speech commemorating the conclusion of the Ashura event in the Dahia on July 17th. Nasrallah issued a warning to Israel, stating that if there are continued attacks on civilians in Lebanon, Hezbollah will retaliate by targeting Israeli communities that have thus far been unaffected.
Subsequently, Hezbollah claimed that Lebanese civilians had injured and retaliated by launching attacks on Israeli civilian communities. On July 19, Hezbollah launched numerous rockets toward the communities of Abirim, Neve Ziv, and Manot in retaliation for attacks on Radwan headquarter in Jemimah and Safad El Battikh, as well as an attack on Chaqra that resulted in injuries to several civilians, according to Lebanese sources, but also of Hezbollah oparatives.
On July 22, following the IDF attack in Hanin, a girl was reportedly injured in Lebanon. Hezbollah responded by firing dozens of rockets at the village of Tzuriel, an area that is not evacuated and is about 7 km from the border with Lebanon. The shooting injured two Israeli civilians and caused heavy property damage.
It should be noted that as of this writing (July 23), Hezbollah is firing at areas with a range of more than 5 kilometers and at communities that are not evacuated.
The main reason civilians are being injured in southern Lebanon is Hezbollah’s use of the human shield tactics. Most of Hezbollah’s military activity is within the villages in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah’s military infrastructure is completely integrated into the civilian infrastructure throughout southern Lebanon and cannot be separated. Hezbollah operates in civilian areas and uses civilians as human shields.
Following recent occurrences, whereby some Lebanese citizens sustained injuries, Hezbollah has chosen to intensify its retaliatory actions and extend the scope of its strikes to include more distant towns that were not previously targeted. This is further evidenced by the acknowledgment in the claim of responsibility for the attacks, which explicitly states that these communities were targeted for the first time, as a direct result of Nasrallah’s declaration.
It is crucial to acknowledge that Hezbollah conducts daily strikes against Israel. These attacks are not just in retaliation to IDF attacks in Lebanon, but also as a kind of “support” for Gaza. Hezbollah initiated the conflict on the northern border on October 8, 2023, and as a result, a system of retaliatory actions against IDF operations was developed. The equation mostly serves to bolster Hezbollah’s domestic support base in Lebanon, demonstrating its unwavering resolve. Hezbollah also enhances its reputation as a “protector of Lebanon” by taking action in response to situations where Lebanese citizens are injured. As previously mentioned, Hezbollah is undertaking a deliberate and calculated risk. The heightened magnitude of its reactions amplifies the likelihood of escalation.
