By: Dana Polak and Tal Beeri
On July 27 Hezbollah launched a rocket from southern Lebanon, striking a soccer field in the Druze town of Majdal Shams, located at the base of Mount Hermon. A total of 12 children and teens were killed, while around 50 others, including boys, girls, and adults, sustained injuries. The attack occurred during the afternoon, while several youngsters were playing soccer on the field. This attack is the most serious incident of civilian deaths in the northern arena since Hezbollah commenced its attacks against Israel on October 8, 2023.
As per the IDF Spokesperson, the rocket launched by Hezbollah was a Falaq-1, manufactured in Iran. The rocket was launched from the vicinity of the village of Shebaa in southern Lebanon, approximately nine kilometers north of Majdal Shams. The Falaq-1 rocket has a maximum range of 10 kilometers. The rocket that struck Majdal Shams was loaded with 53 kg of explosives. Ali Muhammad Yahya was the Hezbollah operative responsible for directing the missile fire. Yahya is a high-ranking member of Hezbollah who operates in the specific location where the missile was launched. The rocket evaded interception by the Iron Dome system, perhaps because of the region’s intricate geography, the rocket’s low altitude, and other challenging factors that hindered interception.
Hezbollah’s first use of Falaq-1 rockets in the current war was on January 26, 2024. Then, too, it launched them toward the Hermon area.
At 19:30 on July 27, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for firing a Falaq-1 rocket toward the Hermon area. At 20:00, Hezbollah issued an extraordinary formal release, denying any role in the Majdal Shams attack.
Majdal Shams is located at the foot of Mount Hermon, in direct line of fire from the rocket launch location in Shebaa. Of course, Hezbollah’s allegation is untrue, and it is apparent that the missile that hit Majdal Shams was the same one fired at the Hermon region at 19:30, as claimed by Hezbollah.
Hezbollah supporters attempted to reaffirm the group’s denials of culpability for the rocket strike on Majdal Shams. The same sources attempted to create a narrative in which an Iron Dome interceptor missile caused the event. This is despite the fact that a video of the rocket hitting the town was released on social media, clearly demonstrating the power of the enormous explosion created by the rocket’s explosives (53 kg).
Is Hezbollah’s anomalous denial the reason for its desire to avoid an all-out war with Israel? We are not sure.
Hezbollah is making a strategic decision by evaluating that Israel now has no intention of engaging in a full-scale war against it. Hezbollah is fully aware that its actions raise the possibility of an escalation. Recently, Hezbollah has displayed a notable level of self-assurance, seen in its increased activity and its ability to extend the scope of its attacks to other targets.
In our understanding, Hezbollah is in a “win-win” situation. We believe that Hezbollah aims to drag Israel into an escalation that would eventually lead to a full-scale war, as this serves its broader interest of strengthening its position in Lebanon. On the other hand, even if Israel does not get drawn into such a war, the current situation still benefits Hezbollah by exhausting Israel, allowing it to learn and gather insights in preparation for future escalation, which will occur sooner or later.
Hezbollah may be attempting to circumvent clashes with the Druze minority in Lebanon since its leaders have expressed solidarity and sympathy with the Druze community in Israel. Had the victims been Jewish, Hezbollah would not have disavowed its participation and would not have released an atypical statement on the incident. For Hezbollah, everything is a matter of narrative, public relations, and perception.
From the onset of the war, Hezbollah has been attempting to rationalize its attacks on Israel and provide reasons for including Lebanon in the battle. Whether by defending it as a platform for “assistance” to the Palestinians or strengthening its portrayal as the “Protector of Lebanon” in reaction to an Israeli Defense Forces assault on Lebanon. The justification is made mainly toward its Lebanese base of support.
Hezbollah attempts to portray a narrative in which it mostly targets military targets, and when it does target civilian objectives, it claims it is in retaliation to IDF assaults on civilian areas in Lebanon. Reality and facts are different. Hezbollah’s assertion that it targets “military targets” is contradicted by the fact that the majority of its armaments consist of rockets. These rockets are known as inaccurate statistical weapons for their lack of precision and are typically launched in large numbers. There is a substantial probability of striking civilian objects. Hezbollah is fully aware of this fact. The potential to harm a populated civilian community will not stop Hezbollah.
We saw further painful evidence of this on July 9, when Hezbollah launched a salvo of Grad rockets against a military post in the Golan Heights. In practice, multiple rockets hit throughout a large region. One of them struck a vehicle, killing the couple Noa and Nir Barnes.
Hezbollah is not aiming to avoid hurting Israeli civilians. Hezbollah has been attacking communities and civilian targets from the beginning of the war, and as of yesterday, 11 people had been killed by their fire. This is not the first time such rockets have been launched toward Israeli-populated centers. Last month, on June 14, 2024, Hezbollah claimed credit for launching around 35 Grad and Falaq rockets against the city of Kiryat Shmona (which has not been entirely evacuated).
It should be noted that Hezbollah, by its widespread use of human shield tactics, does not want to avoid injuring civilians and citizens of Lebanon itself.
The deadly attack on the soccer field in Majdal Shams has the potential to be an important turning point in the character and framework of the conflict in the northern region. An occurrence of such a large-scale tragedy resulting in mass casualties has the potential to provoke a substantial and notable reaction from Israel. Within the upcoming hours and days, we shall ascertain whether this event truly marks an important turning point.
