The Northern Arena and the Shiite Axis – Weekly Review of Events and Key Data (July 22-July 29)

On July 27, a rocket launched by Hezbollah struck the soccer field in the Israeli Druze town of Majdal Shams, located at the base of Mount Hermon. 12 children were killed while they were playing soccer. A Falaq-1 rocket, produced by Iran, had a 53 kg load of explosives. The rocket was launched from the vicinity of the village of Shebaa in southern Lebanon, covering a distance of 9 kilometers in a direct course through the air.

The lethal assault on the soccer field in Majdal Shams has the potential to be a pivotal moment in the character and structure of the conflict in the northern arena. An occurrence of such a large-scale tragedy resulting in several casualties has the potential to provoke a substantial and notable reaction from Israel. Within the upcoming hours and days, we shall ascertain whether this event truly marks a pivotal moment.

In our assessment, Hezbollah now finds itself in a WIN-WIN Situation where it stands to benefit regardless of the outcome. Since the summer of 2022, it has had a keen desire to draw Israel into a full-scale conflict, as it aligns with its goal of consolidating its power in Lebanon. However, as long as Israel does not get involved in such a conflict, the present circumstances also benefit Hezbollah by wearing down Israel, imparting valuable knowledge, and facilitating conclusions. This is in preparation for an imminent escalation that will inevitably occur at some point. For more information, read our article.

Insights

A. Over the past month, there has been a notable increase in the range of Hezbollah’s rocket attacks, extending beyond 5 kilometers and targeting areas that have not been evacuated. Hezbollah is undertaking a strategic gamble by presuming that Israel lacks the inclination for a full-scale conflict. The heightened responsiveness of its actions amplifies the likelihood of escalation, suggesting a display of self-assurance, particularly seen in its active efforts to broaden the scope and targets of its rocket attacks. For further information, please read the article Hezbollah increases and expands the range and targets of its fire in response to IDF attacks.

B. Hezbollah is attempting to construct a narrative in which it primarily targets military objectives, and any strikes on civilian targets are portrayed as retaliatory measures in reaction to the IDF’s assaults on civilian areas in Lebanon. Reality and facts are separate.  Hezbollah can only claim that it fires at “military targets” but in practice, most of the weapons used by Hezbollah are rockets – inaccurate statistical weapons – launched in barrages of dozens of rockets. The likelihood of hitting civilian objects is high. Hezbollah is well aware of this. Hezbollah remains undeterred by the possibility of causing harm to populated civilian communities.

The Lebanese arena:

War data:

In Israel, the government evacuated 43 communities located up to five kilometers from the Lebanese border. A total of about 61,000 citizens. To them were added several thousand more who decided to evacuate independently.

It should be noted that some of the Israeli communities have not been fully evacuated and there is a civilian presence there (agriculture and industry).

The Israeli government has extended the evacuation period until 31 August 2024.

Hezbollah has caused the death of 22 Israeli civilians and one agricultural worker with foreign citizenship so far. A total of 23 civilians and 20 IDF soldiers were killed. In a single attack this past week (July 27) in Majdal Shams, 12 boys, and girls were killed and approximately 50 others were injured.

During the past week, 63 attacks were carried out on the northern border, of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 50 attacks against Israel, utilizing high-trajectory fire (including Grad, Falaq, and Burkan rockets), anti-tank missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, and suicide UAVs.

There has been no claim of responsibility for 13 incidents, of these, 11 UAVs infiltration incidents (9 of them were intercepted by the IDF) and 2 events of rocket launches toward Kiryat Shmona and the Dan and Dafna areas.

In the attack on Majdal Shams, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the rocket fire in the area. However, upon learning that the rocket struck the heart of the community and killed many children, Hezbollah quickly denied (a false denial) its involvement in the specific attack on Majdal Shams.

Since the beginning of the war, 2,531 attacks have been carried out in the northern arena, the vast majority of which were carried out by Hezbollah.

Prominent launching and shooting incidents against Israel

(July 22) Hezbollah launched anti-tank missiles at the communities of Metula and Manara and for the first time, it launched Grad rockets at the community of Zuriel. This community is not evacuated and is about 7 km from the Israel-Lebanon border. As a result of the launches, two civilians were injured, and extensive property damage was caused. According to Hezbollah, the attacks were carried out in response to IDF attacks in Lebanon, in which, according to Hezbollah, the Israeli attacks were aimed at civilian targets, injuring Lebanese civilians. This is in accordance with Nasrallah’s declaration that if civilians are harmed, Hezbollah will fire toward Israeli civilian communities to which it has not fired in the past.

Video: rockets firing at the community of Tzuriel

(July 23) Hezbollah launched about 15 Grad rockets at the city of Kiryat Shmona. According to Hezbollah, in response to the IDF attack on civilian areas in Lebanon.

(July 25) Hezbollah launched suicide UAVs at the community of Neve Ziv and anti-tank missiles at the communities of Shtula and Manara. One of the missiles fired at Shtula severely damaged a kindergarten in the community.

(July 27) Hezbollah claimed responsibility for launching a Falaq-1 rocket at a military base near Mount Hermon. The rocket struck a soccer field in the town of Majdal Shams, which is situated at the base of Mount Hermon. The rocket exploded in the midst of local youths playing in the soccer field resulting in the deaths of 12 children and the injury of approximately 40 others, including adults, children, and adolescents.

Video: The rocket hitting in Majdal Shams

Hezbollah casualties:

Over the past week, Hezbollah released a statement reporting the death of 8 of its military operatives.

As of October 8, 2023, a total of 384 Hezbollah operatives have been killed. Most of the operatives killed live south of the Litani River (257 operatives killed, constituting 66% of all the operatives killed). Many Hezbollah operatives and their families live in southern Lebanon near the border with Israel. They operate in southern Lebanon as part of Hezbollah’s geographic units (Nasser/Aziz) and Hezbollah’s designated units (Radwan unit), while assimilating into the civilian population (human shield tactics).

This week, an operative from the Syrian National Socialist Party was also killed. Reports from Lebanon indicate that a total of 51 members from various organizations, such as Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Amal movement, Al-Jemaah al-Islamiyah (Al-Fajar), and the Syrian Socialist Party have been killed since the onset of the war.

Eliminations of senior Hezbollah figures

Since October 8, 2023, 38 senior Hezbollah operatives were eliminated. 36.8% of them, a total of 14, belonged to the geographic units (southern front) with an emphasis on the Nasser unit, including the unit’s commander – Haj Abu Taleb and Aziz unit commander Ahmad Naama Nasser. Approximately 31.6% of the Radwan unit, which amounts to 12 individuals, including the unit’s acting leader, Wassam al-Tawil were eliminated as well. The primary focus on the Radwan unit and geographical units was on removing sector leaders (similar to brigade commanders) and commanders in specialized arrays (such as rockets/anti-tanks, etc.). In addition, 3 high-ranking operatives from Hezbollah’s air unit, 3 individuals from Hezbollah’s air defense system, a senior agent in Hezbollah’s weapons transfer operation from Syria to Lebanon and a key operative in Hezbollah’s combat engineering unit were eliminated. Out of the total number of people killed, 4 individuals, which is equivalent to 11.4%, were experts in the areas of research / development / manufacture of weapons, and combat support technologies.

Elimination attempts are critical and necessary. Regardless of the eliminations, Hezbollah has operational and command continuity. This endeavor cannot be the primary focus, but rather a concurrent and supplementary effort to the main focus, which is to cause significant harm to Hezbollah’s tactical firing systems and its military infrastructure on the southern front, as well as extensive damage to Hezbollah’s strategic fire systems and infrastructure in depth.

Prominent airstrikes in Lebanon

(July 27) Attack on a Hezbollah command center in KfarKila. In the attack, four operatives of the Radwan Unit were killed. The Radwan Unit continues to operate near the border with Israel and possesses certain capabilities for carrying out operations against Israel.

Hezbollah – General:

Above: The continuation of the Ashura events in Beirut

(July 24) German authorities outlawed the Hamburg Islamic Center for promoting extremist Islamic ideology affiliated with Iran and Hezbollah. Its operatives and supporters back Hezbollah’s ideology and aggressively promote anti-Semitism. It was also reported that the investigation revealed that the center was spreading the ideology of the Islamic Revolution in an aggressive and militant manner and sought to bring about such a revolution in the Federal Republic of Germany.[1]

(July 24) Hezbollah released a new video from the “Hodhod” type UAV, documenting the Ramat David Air Force Base, located about 50 km from the border Israel-Lebanon. See our article analyzing the video.

(July 26) Hezbollah’s Islamic Health Organization, together with Palestinian committees, initiated a special health day, free of charge, in the refugee camps in the Sidon region. The event was marked as support for the Palestinian people and the resistance. 349 people participated, and 872 free doses of medicine were distributed.

(July 27) In an interview with Al-Akhbar[2], a commander in Hezbollah’s aerial unit revealed the UAVs in Hezbollah’s arsenal and other details regarding the unit. The unit was established in the early 1990s, when it focused on flying glider aircraft. With Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, close cooperation began with Iranian Revolutionary Guards operatives, who at that time were beginning the development project of the UAVs. One of Hezbollah’s first uses of the UAVs was during the Second Lebanon War. From 2006 until his elimination in 2013, Hassan al-Alkis was the unit’s commander. Hezbollah’s aerial unit played a significant role in the war in Syria and gained a great deal of experience there.

The spokesman stressed that many times Hezbollah had launched UAVs into Israel for “trial runs” and to analyze the detection capabilities of Israel’s air defense systems. He added that Israel had improved its means of detection along the border during the war. However, despite all the defense and detection systems, the organization’s UAVs still manage to penetrate, photograph and return to Lebanon.

The commander unveiled intelligence-gathering UAVs: Al-Nawras (The Seagull), suicide UAVs: T1, T2, Mersad and UAVs for photographic purposes. Another UAV he unveiled is the Karar type, an attack UAV capable of flying with a range of 1,000 km, flying at speeds between 700-900 km/h at an altitude of 35,000 feet, capable of carrying missiles. [3]

Lebanon – General:

(July 23) An investigative report by the BBC newspaper revealed the extent of the damage caused to southern Lebanon and border towns after nine months of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel. Satellite imagery, radar imagery, and records of military activity indicate that as of July 10, more than 60 percent of Lebanese border villages had sustained some form of damage as a result of Israeli airstrikes and artillery, and more than 3,200 buildings were damaged.

The village most targeted is Ayita al-Shaab, which has been attacked at least 299 times since October 2023. There was significant damage to buildings, restaurants and shops along the city’s main road. In addition, Kafr Kila was the target of more than 200 attacks, which also led to the destruction of many shops, markets, and services in the village center. As of 23 June, 1,016 housing units have been reported damaged since the start of the escalation, with 75 percent of the damage caused by Hezbollah rockets, missiles, and UAVs, and only 25 per cent due to the activities of Israeli military forces in the area. To our understanding and regret, it seems that this investigative report is unbalanced to say the least, despite trying to appear as such.

It does not accurately portray the significant damage on the Israeli side. For example, the story makes absolutely little mention of the considerable damage done to structures on the Israeli side. The primary allusion is to the devastation done to open spaces and vegetation by flames. Furthermore, the paper suggests that Israel has some responsibility for the flames: because the Iron Dome interception mechanism does not capture missiles that fall in open regions, this contributes to the fires…

(July 28) following the tension between Israel and Hezbollah following the Hezbollah attack that killed 12 children in Majdal Shams, Norway, France, Saudi Arabia, and even Syria (there is no limit to cynicism…), called on their citizens to leave Lebanon as soon as possible.

The Syrian arena:

(July 25) Syria President Bashar al-Assad meets Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

(July 26) The Italian Foreign Ministry announced that the special envoy to Syria, Stefano Ravagnan, would soon be appointed ambassador to Damascus. It is the first G7 country to appoint an ambassador to Syria and re-normalize relations with the Assad regime since the outbreak of the civil war.

(July 26) It was reported that at least four Iranian arms and ammunition trucks had entered through the Albukamal border crossing. The trucks were escorted by militants from the “Iraqi Recruitment Forces”, who prevented the trucks from being checked at regime checkpoints. According to the report, two trucks reached Albukamal’s southern industrial zone, and the other two trucks continued to Deir ez-Zor. It was also reported that a few days earlier, Iranian militias had transported 12 truckloads of weapons through the illegal Al-Saqqaq crossing, located in the rural area of Albukamal.

This past week it seems that fighting has intensified in eastern Syria between the Shiite militias and the Kurdish forces.

In addition, during the past week, a military course that trained dozens of militia operatives was completed. The course took place in the Saur area in the southern Albukamal Desert. The closing ceremony was attended by Hajj Askar – commander of the Shiite militias in the Albukamal area.

(July 28) Dozens of Druze in the al-Sweida district in southern Syria took to the streets to express support for the victims of the Majdal Shams disaster. The protest included slogans against Hezbollah, calling it the “Party of Satan,” which is responsible for the slaughter of children, and calling for a regime change in Syria.

Shiite Axis – General

The latest attack on American sites in Iraq and Syria by Shiite militias, as publicly documented by US Central Command, occurred on February 20th. Multiple accounts indicate that the attacks on American bases ceased as a result of explicit directives from Iran to the Shiite militias, in light of undisclosed agreements between Iran and the United States.

Since then, according to a number of local indications, 10 attacks have been carried out against American bases for which no responsibility was claimed and for which the Americans did not announce. Although we believe that there were indeed airstrikes, the US Central Command did not confirm them in a public publication as it did before February 20.

(July 27) Rockets were reportedly fired at the base of the Conico gas field in eastern Syria.

During the past week (July 22-29) the Islamic resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for 1 attack against Israel. During that night, it was reported that IAF fighter jets intercepted two UAVs en route to Israel from the east.

Yemen – Houthi-land:

During the past week, coalition forces managed to strike 6 UAVs, 5 rocket launchers, 3 exploding USVs and a UAV launcher which posed an immediate threat to freedom of movement in international waters. This week, the Houthis did not carry out any attacks.

Since October 2023, there have been 189 Houthi attacks against Israel, the United States and other targets.


[1] https://apnews.com/article/germany-extremism-iran-hezbollah-ban-raids-hamburg-e93b1496c235ed379aeda3bd5c63c32f

[2] https://al-akhbar.com/Politics/384913

[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuKf04zTyUY&ab_channel=%D8%AC%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1-Al-Akhbar

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Alma Research

One Response

  1. Greetings:

    The withdrawal of Hezbollah from the rocket attacks will not reduce attacks on Israel unless there is a serious threat to the militias supporting it in Iraq and Yemen. This is the kind of attack that would put Hassan Nasrallah in a state of anxiety and confusion, leading him to prepare to de-escalate even if he receives orders from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

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