During the month of July 2024, Hezbollah and other organizations launched 259 attacks against Israel along the northern border. The monthly average is 8.3 attacks per day, compared to 292 attacks in June 2024, which averaged 9.6 per day. Hezbollah claimed credit for the majority of these attacks.
Other factions that launched attacks against Israel, in addition to Hezbollah this month, included the Lebanese Resistance Brigades, Hezbollah proxy militia which claimed responsibility for two attacks, and Hamas’ military-terrorist arm in Lebanon, which claimed responsibility for one incident. In addition, rockets were fired from Syrian territory toward the southern Golan Heights, for which no responsibility was claimed.
The month of July has the largest number of Israeli casualties, with 17 dead and 67 wounded. The majority of the fatalities were caused by Hezbollah’s Falaq rocket, which struck a soccer field in the Israeli Druze town of Majdal Shams, killing 12 children and injuring 50 others.
It is clear that there have been two days of heavy strikes at the northern border. The first occurred on July 4, one day after the elimination of Aziz unit commander Muhammad Naama Nasser. The second occurred on July 19, the day after the eliminations of Mohammad Jbara, the commander in the Khaled Ali unit of Hamas-Lebanon, and Ali Ja’far Matoq, the commander of the Hajir sector in the Radwan unit.
Looking at the monthly number of attacks from the beginning of the war, there has been a decrease in the last three months. However, it is crucial to note that these figures represent the number of events, not the amount of munitions launched in each attack. Furthermore, the proportion between civilian and military targets attacks remains nearly the same, with 48.4 percent of all strikes carried out since the war’s outset targeting civilian targets. There has been a total of 2,560 attacks on the northern frontier since the war began.
The gradual decline in the number of attacks over the past three months coincides with an increase in the number of attacks on un-evacuated areas (more than 5 km from the border). This upward trend continued this month as well, and was reflected after the elimination of the Aziz unit commander. This trend continued throughout the month, in accordance with Nasrallah’s warning on July 17 that any strike in Lebanon that resulted in civilian casualties would prompt Hezbollah to attack new Israeli communities it had not previously struck. This month, 44 attacks were carried out in communities and areas that are not evacuated. The elimination of prominent leaders appears to be the primary catalyst for the increasing trend. Furthermore, there is a correlation between the duration of the conflict and the escalation of Hezbollah’s retaliatory strikes
Regarding weaponry, there was a decline in UAV incidents, with a total of 56 events in comparison to the 75 incidences in June. Out of the total of 56 UAV incidents on July, 26 of them were classified as suicide UAV assaults. Hezbollah primarily relies on high-trajectory rocket firing as its main weapon, which has been consistently deployed in strikes against Israel since January 2024. The number of occurrences involving anti-tank missile launches remained nearly unchanged, with 58 incidents in July and 57 incidents in June.
One potential explanation for the gradual decline in the number of UAV incidents is the recent rise in IDF reports documenting successful interceptions of UAVs in the northern border during the previous three months. Given this situation, it is conceivable that Hezbollah may be compelled to reassess Israel’s defensive systems and endeavor to identify new vulnerabilities. Nevertheless, Hezbollah continues to successfully execute UAV attacks and recently unveiled two video recordings of UAVs that infiltrated significant Israeli territories, including the Golan Heights and Ramat David Airforce base, located around 50 kilometers from the Israel-Lebanon border. Hezbollah claimed they had been captured on camera recently.
