Hezbollah launched a lethal missile on July 27, resulting in the deaths of 12 children who were playing soccer in Majdal Shams. In response, Israel acted by eliminating Fouad Shakar in the Dahiya neighborhood of Beirut on July 30. Shakar, named “Hajj Mohsen,” had positions within Hezbollah such as being a member of the Jihad Council, head of Hezbollah’s strategic array and serving as a trusted military counselor to Nasrallah. Several hours later, on July 31st, Ismail Haniya, the leader of Hamas’ political bureau, was eliminated in the heart of Tehran by an unidentified entity.
The eliminations occurring in the central areas of Tehran and the Dahiya in Beirut, which are the centers of gravity of the Shiite axis, further intensify the humiliation and tarnish the “national honor” of these prominent players. This will greatly influence their reaction, which has the capacity to escalate the Middle East into a regional war.
The Shiite coalition led by Iran, with a particular focus on Hezbollah, is currently undergoing a phase of decision-making. On the one hand, it desires to inflict harm against Israel and retaliate against the physical and metaphorical degradation it endured. In regard to Iran, apart from the necessity to address the feeling of being humiliated, there is also the imperative to uphold the “ideology of Palestine” and the animosity against Israel, as described by Supreme Leader Khamenei. This ideology aims to bridge the intellectual divide between the Shiite Axis and the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is a representative. The shared ideology of Palestine fosters a mutual interest in the perspective of the Supreme Leader, which serves as a foundation for potential collaboration. According to Iran, the ideology was strengthened by organizing extravagant celebrations in Tehran to commemorate Haniyeh and the resolve to respond to the situation with military action in a significant manner. Furthermore, it is imperative to uphold the “Dahiya equation” proclaimed by Hezbollah.
Alternatively, it is conceivable that the Shiite axis, particularly Hezbollah, seeks to delay the full-scale conflict with Israel until a more opportune time. The Axis may choose a significant response attempt, but their response may leave the door open to a step back from the brink of all-out regional war for the time being.
Read more about the eliminations of Fouad Shekhar and Ismail Haniya, and about analyzing the response options of Iran and Hezbollah.
The Lebanese arena:
War data:
In Israel, the government evacuated 43 communities located up to five kilometers from the Lebanese border. A total of about 61,000 citizens. To them were added several thousand more who decided to evacuate independently.
It should be noted that some of the Israeli communities have not been fully evacuated and there is a civilian presence there (agriculture and industry).
The Israeli government has extended the evacuation period until 31 August 2024.
This week (July 30) an Israeli civilian was killed by a rocket in Kibbutz HaGoshrim. Hezbollah has so far killed 24 civilians and 20 soldiers, a total of 44 fatalities.
During the past week 43 attacks were carried out on the northern border, of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 39 attacks against Israel, utilizing high-trajectory fire (including Grad rockets), anti-tank missiles, suicide UAVs and anti-aircraft missiles.
There has been no claim of responsibility for 4 incidents, of these, all of them were UAV incidents that penetrated Israel from Lebanon territory, intercepted by the IDF.
Since the beginning of the war, 2,582 attacks have been carried out in the northern arena, the vast majority of which were carried out by Hezbollah.
Prominent launching and shooting incidents against Israel
(July 29) Hezbollah fired about 20 Grad rockets at the Goma junction. According to Hezbollah, the target was a military base, in effect the rockets hit in open areas and caused fires.
(July 29) A UAV (possibly an intelligence gathering) was intercepted on route from Lebanon territory in Israel’s EEZ. It possibly could have been aimed at the Karish gas platform.
(July 30) Hezbollah launched about 10 Grad rockets toward the area of Beit Hillel. According to Hezbollah, the target was a military base, in effect a rocket hit the yard of a house in Kibbutz HaGoshrim, killing one civilian.
(August 3) Hezbollah fired rockets at the communities of Matat, Avivim and Shlomi.
(August 4) Hezbollah fired about 30 Grad rockets at the village of Beit Hillel. According to Hezbollah, in response to the IDF attacks in Lebanon. Several rockets hit the community, killing several cows and severely damaging property.
Hezbollah casualties:
Over the past week, Hezbollah released a statement reporting the death of 8 of its military operatives – including Fuad Shakar – Head of Hezbollah’s strategic division.
As of October 8, 2023, a total of 392 Hezbollah operatives have been killed. Most of the operatives killed live south of the Litani River (262 operatives killed, constituting 66% of all the operatives killed). Many Hezbollah operatives and their families live in southern Lebanon near the border with Israel. They operate in southern Lebanon as part of Hezbollah’s geographic units (Nasser/Aziz) and Hezbollah’s designated units (Radwan unit), while assimilating into the civilian population (human shield tactics).
Reports from Lebanon indicate that a total of 54 members from various organizations, such as Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Amal movement, Al-Jamaʻah al-islamiyah (Al-Fajar). This week, the death of an Amal movement operative was also reported.
Eliminations of senior Hezbollah figures
Since October 8, 2023, 40 senior Hezbollah operatives were eliminated. The most senior of them being Fouad Shakar – a member of the Jihad Council – and head of Hezbollah’s strategic division. 37.5% of them, a total of 15, belonged to the geographic units (southern front) with an emphasis on the Nasser unit, including the unit’s commander – Haj Abu Taleb and Aziz unit commander Ahmad Naama Nasser. Approximately 30% of the Radwan unit, which amounts to 12 individuals, including the unit’s acting leader, Wassam al-Tawil were eliminated as well. The primary focus on the Radwan unit and geographical units was on removing sector leaders (similar to brigade commanders) and commanders in specialized arrays (such as rockets/anti-tanks, etc.).
In addition, 3 high-ranking operatives from Hezbollah’s air unit, 3 individuals from Hezbollah’s air defense system, a senior agent in Hezbollah’s weapons transfer operation from Syria to Lebanon and a key operative in Hezbollah’s combat engineering unit were eliminated. Out of the total number of people killed, 4 individuals, which is equivalent to 10%, were experts in the areas of research / development / manufacture of weapons, and combat support technologies.
Elimination attempts are critical and necessary. Regardless of the eliminations, Hezbollah has operational and command continuity. This endeavor cannot be the primary focus, but rather a concurrent and supplementary effort to the main focus, which is to cause significant harm to Hezbollah’s tactical firing systems and its military infrastructure on the southern front, as well as extensive damage to Hezbollah’s strategic fire systems and infrastructure in depth.
Prominent airstrikes in Lebanon
(August 3) Ali Nazia Abd Ali, born in 1984, originally from the village of Aaitit, a senior Hezbollah operative of the Southern Front was eliminated by Israel. Among other things, the geographic units Netzer and Aziz operate under the southern front. The eliminated was carried out around Al Bazouriye, in the western sector of southern Lebanon, in the area of Wadi Jilou. ‘Abd Ali was responsible for many operations against Israel from South Lebanon.
Hezbollah – General:
(July 29) Naim Qassem, Nasrallah’s deputy, arrived in Tehran for a meeting with Iran’s new president, Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian, ahead of his inauguration. The new Iranian president said it was “our religious duty to support and help the resistance. Supporting the Islamic resistance is one of the main priorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
(August 1) A funeral ceremony was held for Fouad Shakar, head of Hezbollah’s strategic array, that was eliminated in Beirut. The ceremony was attended by a large audience of officials, including ministers, representatives of political parties, religious and spiritual authorities, the leadership of the army and various security forces, clerics and the media.
(August 1) Nasrallah’s speech during the funeral ceremony of Fouad Shakar;
At the beginning of Nasrallah’s speech, he describes the Israeli attack on the Dahiya as an aggression, not elimination. He claimed the attack targeted a civilian building, killing seven civilians and wounding dozens more. Nasrallah stressed the attack on civilians as a basis for legitimacy to attack civilian targets in Israel.
Nasrallah rejected the Israeli narrative that the attack on the Dahiya was carried out in response to Hezbollah’s attack on Majdal Shams, in which 12 children were killed and many others were wounded. Nasrallah denied Hezbollah’s connection to the attack claiming that it was Israel that caused the disaster in Majdal Shams with an Iron Dome interceptor missile. Moreover, Nasrallah claimed that Israel accuses Hezbollah of attacking Majdal Shams in order to provoke sectarian conflicts. According to him, the leaders of the Druze community in Syria and Lebanon supported Hezbollah’s position and helped repel Israel’s “unjustified” accusations.
Therefore, there was no justification for an attack on the Dahiya, but rather the attack is part of the price Hezbollah pays for starting a war with Israel, as part of the “support front” of Gaza and of the Palestinian issue. As in every speech from the beginning of the war, Nasrallah reiterates the claim that the way to achieve calm in the region is to stop the war in Gaza.
Nasrallah stated that following the Israeli attack, the war is entering a new phase, and Israel should expect a response. In order for the response to be significant, the date for carrying out the response will be determined in accordance with operational considerations. Nasrallah hinted that the response for Israel’s attack will come from several fronts – Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran.
According to Nasrallah, Iran will respond to the elimination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran because it is not only a violation of their sovereignty, but also a violation of national security, prestige and honor.
Nasrallah stated that the elimination of the senior figures has no effect on the resistance, and even the death of Fouad Shakar strengthens Hezbollah’s determination and will, and that his role will soon be replaced by one of his students who are ready to continue his path. Shakar was one of Hezbollah’s founding members and was responsible for many high-quality operations Hezbollah carried out. Nasrallah noted that he was in daily contact with Shakar that took part in conducting the fighting in southern Lebanon.
(August 3) Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt paid a condolence visit to the Hezbollah mourning tent erected in the Dahiya in Beirut to mark the elimination of Fouad Shakar. Jumblatt also supported Hezbollah’s position, claiming it had nothing to do with the rocket that hit the Israeli Druze town of Majdal Shams, killing 12 children and wounding dozens more. Recently, Jumblatt has frequently expressed support for Hezbollah, and about two weeks ago he appealed to the leader of the Druze community in Israel to express support for the Palestinians and oppose the Israel government.
Lebanon – General:
(August 2) A symbolic ceremony was held for Ismail Haniya in Beirut. The ceremony began after Friday prayers, with the participation of senior Hamas Lebanon political leaders, representatives of the Palestinian factions and social organizations. The participants shouted slogans of support for the resistance and the war against Israel, and condemned Haniya’s elimination.
(August 1-4) Given Hezbollah’s security concerns and threats to strike Israel in reaction to the elimination of Fouad Shakar in Beirut, numerous nations advised their citizens not to travel to Lebanon and those who were already there to leave. Countries: France, Sweden. Italy, the UK, Jordan, Canada, Russia, Turkey, and Japan. The US also used unusual wording, urging anybody who can purchase a plane ticket and leave Lebanon, even if the immediate destination is not the United States. The US also urged individuals who chose not to leave immediately to prepare shelter that allows for long-term stays, and that the US will not necessarily evacuate its citizens from Lebanon. The widely circulated photos on social media from Beirut airport indeed show a significant departure of many people from Lebanon.
Prominent attacks in the smuggling corridor between Syria and Lebanon:
(August 2) According to local reports, the Syrian military airfield Al-Dabaa (southwest of Homs) was bombed late in the evening. The Shiite axis and Hezbollah have a long history of engagement in Al-Dabaa. Iranian air defense equipment was discovered there, Hezbollah’s air unit (Unit 127) is known to operate there, and medium-sized Iranian military jets have been observed landing there on occasion. Apparently, there was no actual attack on the airport on August 2.
(August 2) According to local sources, several trucks were attacked in the Hush al-Sayyid Ali region, near the Syrian Lebanese border northeast of Al-Hermel in the Beqaa Valley. If the claims are right, we believe the trucks crossed from Syria into Lebanon and transported weapons as part of the land route to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Attempts to deliver Iranian weaponry to Hezbollah via multiple corridor routes continue throughout the war. On June 11, vehicles belonging to Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, which oversees delivering weaponry to Lebanon in collaboration with Unit 190 of the Iranian Quds Force, were struck in the same region. This is the main route for the weapons corridor into Lebanon.
(August 3) A vehicle traveling on the road leading from the Al-Masnaa crossing to Damascus was apparently hit by an attack. The nature of the attack and the identity of the passengers in the vehicle are unclear. Judging by the photos of the damaged vehicle, it appears that it was not an airstrike but rather a roadside bomb (the car remained intact and there was clear shrapnel on the sides of the car). There is a possibility that a missile was fired from the air at the vehicle, the missile missed and hit near the car. This possibility is less likely in our opinion, since we did not detect signs of a missile hitting the road/ground around the vehicle.
Syria -General:
(July 30) According to local sources, an attack was reported around Tel Jaiba and Tel um Horan in Daraa Province in southern Syria. According to reports in Tel Jaiba, a military post controlled by Hezbollah and Pro-Iranian militias was attacked.
(July 29) There are significant differences between the Druze in southern Syria compared to those in northern Golan Heights: A rally took place in southern Syria’s Sweida Province in memory of the children killed by a Hezbollah missile on the Majdal Shams soccer field. Last week, following the accident in Majdal Shams, protests were conducted in Sweida province against Hezbollah, the organization responsible for the disaster. On August 2, protests on the same topic were conducted, with Free Syria flags and anti-Iran banners. A similar protest was conducted in Khader, in the northern Syrian Golan Heights, with the governor of Quneitra Province and the city’s Baath Party branch secretary in attendance. However, a declaration of sympathy was given on behalf of the Ba’ath Party, which blamed Israel for the accident…
(July 30) The Syrian Foreign Ministry issued an official statement condemning Israel’s attack in Beirut, calling it “an affront to Lebanon sovereignty and a clear violation of international law.”
The Shiite Axis – General
(July 31) The elimination in Tehran of Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’ political bureau, by an unknown entity. The Iranian regime organized a mass ceremony attended by many thousands to escort Haniya’s coffin, which was flown to Qatar, where he was buried.
The latest attack on American sites in Iraq and Syria by Shiite militias, as publicly documented by US Central Command, occurred on February 20th. Multiple accounts indicate that the attacks on American bases ceased because of explicit directives from Iran to the Shiite militias, in light of undisclosed agreements between Iran and the United States.
Since then, according to several local indications, 10 attacks have been carried out against American bases for which no responsibility was claimed and for which the Americans did not announce. Although we believe that there were indeed airstrikes, the US Central Command did not confirm them in a public publication as it did before February 20.
During the past week (July 29-August 5), the Islamic resistance in Iraq did not claim responsibility for attacks against Israel and no further indications were reported.
(July 31) An airstrike on a base of the Shiite Al-Hashd al-Shaabi organization in the northern Babel Province in Iraq killed four Kataeb Hezbollah operatives, including a senior commander.
Yemen – Houthi-land:
During the past week, coalition forces managed to strike 3 exploding USVs, a UAV and a rocket loaded on a launcher which posed an immediate threat to freedom of movement in international waters.
(August 3) After two weeks of no airstrikes by Houthi forces, an attack on the commercial ship GROTON off the coast of Yemen was reported, causing no damage to the ship’s operation.
In the video: Houthi footage of the attack on the GROTON ship
(August 4) Houthi forces claim responsibility for downing an American MQ9 UAV, releasing photos of the wreckage of the downed UAV.
Since October 2023, there have been 191 Houthi attacks against Israel, the United States and other targets.
