By: Dana Polak and Tal Be’eri
In the early morning hours of August 25, at around 4:30 a.m., the IDF launched a preemptive attack to thwart a massive launch of missiles and rockets by Hezbollah toward northern and central Israel. Hezbollah planned an attack as part of its intention to retaliate the elimination of Fouad Shakar that took place on July 30 in Beirut. Thousands of missile loaded launching tubes were positioned in southern Lebanon and more than 40 missile loaded launching tubes were attacked by about 100 IDF fighter jets. In our assessment, not all of the weapons attacked were intended for Hezbollah’s current response, and some of them were on standby for further deployment if necessary.
About an hour later, Hezbollah attempted to carry out its retaliatory attack for Fouad Shakar’s death. Hezbollah’s operation included the launching of more than 200 Grad rockets and about 20 suicide UAVs toward northern Israel, most of them aimed at civilian areas that are not evacuated in the Western Galilee, Upper Galilee and Golan Heights. According to Hezbollah, the rocket attacks were aimed at 11 military bases in northern Israel, but in practice many communities and civilian targets throughout northern Israel were struck.
Hezbollah’s attack came after several exceptionally intense days in the fighting in northern Israel, both by Hezbollah and by Israel. As we noted in previous reports, it is our assessment that Hezbollah intended in its original response to carry out a combined bombardment attack against Israel: an intensive rocket and UAV attack on northern Israel (hundreds of launches, not thousands) as a diversion and intentionally engaging the Israeli defense systems, while, simultaneously, firing several accurate missiles or heavy rockets or UAVs at central Israel. This, with the aim to fulfil Hezbollah’s equation: If Israel accurately hits a target in Beirut (Fouad Shakar in Dahiyeh), Hezbollah will accurately hit a high-quality target in the heart of Israel. According to various reports, the targets marked by Hezbollah were at the military intelligence compound in Glilot located in north Tel Aviv: Mossad headquarters and the IDF intelligence base 8200.
Hezbollah’s original retaliation was disrupted by the Israeli preemptive attack.
It’s been about a month since Fouad Shakar, the chief of Hezbollah’s strategic branch and a member of the Jihad Council, was killed. This is the longest it has taken Hezbollah to respond to the elimination of a prominent member of its ranks in the previous 10 months of combat. Hezbollah’s retaliatory attack was intended to take place on the 40th day, as the Shiites commemorate Imam Hussein bin Ali’s martyrdom in the Battle of Karbala, the defeat of the Shiites by the Sunnis.
Despite threats from a number of Shiite axis players expressing that the retaliation to Shakar’s death would be united with Iran, as retaliation to the elimination of Haniyeh, and even with the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah acted on its own.
Another reason that might have affected the decision to conduct the strike was Hamas’ revelation that it had rejected the American offer of negotiations. This came after allegations in early August that Hezbollah would halt its retaliation to Shakar’s elimination amid Hamas-Israeli discussions.
During the last month, the IDF has increased its targeting of Hezbollah operatives and launched assaults deep into Lebanon. Over the weekend, 7 Hezbollah operatives were killed in IDF airstrikes in Tir Harfa, Miss al-Jabal, Aitaroun, Aita a-Zut, and Tyre. Among them are prominent figures from Hezbollah’s rocket and missile unit. Since the beginning of August 2024, 41 Hezbollah operatives and 5 operatives from other groups in Lebanon, including Hamas, the Amal movement, and the Lebanese Resistance Brigades, have been killed. In addition, another Amal movement operative was killed this morning (25.08) in an attack on a car in Khiam, south Lebanon and two other Hezbollah operatives in At Tiri.
Over the past weekend Hezbollah carried out 30 attacks against Israel, including hundreds of rocket and missile attacks fired toward northern Israel. In two of these attacks, about 40 Grad rockets were fired at the city of Kiryat Shmona and about 20 rockets at the city of Safed.
Hezbollah, in its public pronouncements regarding its offensive against Israel, denies the IDF’s claims of success in the preventative operation, alleging that its strike on Israel was successful and as planned. As part of cognitive and psychological warfare, Hezbollah hopes to convey a narrative of success despite its failure due to the IDF’s preemptive activity against it.
As part of the psychological warfare, Hezbollah hints that another military target that was attacked will be revealed later, and that its attack this morning is in fact only the first stage.
At the time of writing, the IDF continues its preventive strikes to remove the threat in a number of areas in southern Lebanon. At least at this stage, it appears that the preemptive attack by Israel limited Hezbollah’s response offensive.
As of now, Hezbollah has declared that the retaliatory offensive has been completed for that day. Later today (August 25, at 6:00 P.M.), Hassan Nasrallah is intending to speak. In our assessment, as in every speech, Nasrallah will stick to his usual speech patterns: addressing different audiences, with an emphasis on the Shiite base, and emphasizing the various narratives that are an inseparable part of the cognitive war: glorifying the resistance, emphasizing Hezbollah’s threat and operational control, and belittling the capabilities and achievements of Israel.
The coming days will reveal whether Hezbollah is willing to continue taking risks and attempting to attack inhabited areas deep within Israel, potentially escalating into an all-out war with Israel.
