By: Gershon Hacohen
The escalation of rocket barrages and the infiltration of UAVs in the northern region present the leadership of the State of Israel at a critical juncture, necessitating the formulation of challenging and resolute choices. Hezbollah’s aggressive tendencies necessitate Israel to carefully consider its current operational patterns in the Lebanese region in two dimensions. In one dimension, there is a steep and significant increase in the curve of Hezbollah’s graph of attacks in the number and range of fire that expands the combat zone. In the second dimension, which is more concerning, nearing a year into the war, there is a sense of disappointment in the expectation that the Israeli Defense Forces’ operational patterns, as implemented throughout the previous year, will effectively establish the necessary conditions to repatriate Israeli citizens to their homes in the near future.
Undoubtedly, the IDF is retaliating with strategies and tactics that demand a price from Hezbollah and demonstrate remarkable intelligence skills, as well as powerful and accurate assault capabilities. Nevertheless, as time passes, the developing situation in the northern theater appears trapped in a security deadlock. None of the accomplishments of the Northern Command, Military Intelligence Directorate, and the Air Force seem to be enough to expedite Nasrallah’s acceptance of a truce to cease the hostilities. Naturally, he is losing top notch combatants and leaders, along with crucial resources such as ammunition storage depots and strategically positioned fortifications, some of which are effectively concealed. Additionally, he is facing the loss of houses in border villages. He is also responsible for the hardships endured by around 100,000 southern Lebanon residents who have been forced to leave their homes. But apparently, these prices are insignificant compared to the massive strategic accomplishment he achieved during the initial stages of the war, which set a dreadful precedent of tens of thousands of Israelis forsaking their residences near the border.
The enemy’s security awareness that enables it to intensify daily attacks into Israel territory, including against civilian targets in Nahariya and communities in the second circle, requires the State of Israel to adopt a response that reflects a turning point in relation to the combat constraints that have been formulated.
During his visit to the Northern Command headquarters, General Kurilla, the commander of the American Central Command, was likely appraised regarding the alarming trends and the need for Israel to respond more effectively, in line with the goal of reuniting the residents of the northern border with their homes. Determining whether Israel will receive approval for an operational shift towards an offensive is a challenging task. It is possible that even in light of clear American recognition of Hezbollah’s intensified fighting, the American administration will still adhere to its de-escalation policy. In this policy, despite the deployment of American forces throughout the Middle East, with a very significant military presence, the defined American aspiration focuses on the effort to prevent local and regional escalation, certainly until the date of the elections. In doing so, the United States may succeed in delaying and suspending Iran’s promise of retaliation against Israel, but in reality, its policy encourages the continuation of the war.
Towards the one-year anniversary of the outbreak of war, the State of Israel must focus on an appropriate response to Hezbollah’s efforts to expand the scope of its attacks into Israeli territory, particularly to devote itself to the insurmountable obligation to do everything necessary both militarily and politically in order to bring about a change in achieving the goal of restoring full civilian life in all areas of the State of Israel all the way to the border front.
Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, Former Commander of the General HQ Corps.
This article was first published in Hebrew in Israel Hayom newspaper on September 11, 2024.
