Insights
During the past week, the IDF has accumulated significant achievements in the war against Hezbollah, which suffered severe operational, intelligence and cognitive blows that caused significant damage at the level of organizational management. However, despite the IDF’s successes, Hezbollah is working to maintain functional continuity, and until now has conducted itself rationally and judiciously. This is in the interest of continuing to attack Israel and not stop the war of attrition. The IDF’s achievements are very important, but at the same time it is important to cause significant damage to Hezbollah’s rocket fire arrays and military infrastructure in southern Lebanon and damage to Hezbollah’s strategic fire arrays and infrastructure deep inside Lebanon.
The elimination of Fouad Shakar (July 30) achieved the quantum leap and in fact created a new standard as we recommended in principle at the beginning of July. The elimination of Ibrahim Aqil (Sept. 20) cemented the quantum leap and set the standard for continuing the elimination policy among Hezbollah’s senior Jihad Council military leadership (Hezbollah’s General Staff).
In our opinion, the continued elimination of the members of the Jihad Council is no longer considered a calculated risk, but a necessity.
It appears that Hezbollah does not intend to stop the war of attrition it began against Israel on October 8, 2023. The elimination effort must continue at all times alongside the main effort, which is a factual and strategic blow to Hezbollah’s main fire systems: the missile and rocket arsenal.
We recommend continuing to attack members of the Jihad Council (Ali Karki and Talal Hamia), exacting a high toll from Hezbollah’s leadership hierarchy, firstly targeting Hashem Safi al-Din (head of the Executive Council) and Naim Qassem (Nasrallah’s deputy) from this echelon.
The Lebanese arena:
War data:
In Israel, the government evacuated 43 communities located up to five kilometers from the Lebanese border. A total of about 61,000 citizens. To them were added several thousand more who decided to evacuate independently.
It should be noted that some of the Israeli communities have not been fully evacuated and there is a civilian presence there (agriculture and industry).
The Israeli government has extended the evacuation period until 30 September 2024.
On September 1, when the new academic year began in Israel, it was declared in the evacuated communities that the school year would not start and that the students would be registered in alternative frameworks. In communities that were not evacuated in the north, which are also exposed daily to Hezbollah fire, it was decided to start the school year as usual. This is despite the difficult deliberations due to the problem of protection and the lack of security during transportation to and from schools.
After assessing the situation, as of Sunday (September 22), it was decided to update the protective guidelines for residents from the Haifa line northward, including the Golan Heights, Upper Galilee, Central Galilee, Lower Galilee, Haifa Bay and the Valleys region. The guidelines include canceling educational frameworks, limiting gatherings, restricting services, and restricting workplaces only in buildings where it is possible to reach a protected space during the defense. This is an area with about one million citizens of Israel’s population.
During the week, two soldiers were killed on the northern border. As a result of Hezbollah attacks, 25 civilians and 25 IDF soldiers have been killed in Israel so far, a total of 50 people.
According to the Israel Nature and Parks Authority, since October 7, 189,000 dunams have been scorched in hundreds of locations across northern Israel (as of August 25, 2024).
During the past week 92 attacks were carried out on the northern border, a relatively high amount relative to the weekly average (60), of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 78 attacks against Israel, utilizing high-trajectory fire (including Grad and Falaq rockets), anti-tank missiles and suicide UAVs.
There has been no claim of responsibility for 14 incidents, among them, 7 incidents of UAV infiltrations, 4 incidents of high-trajectory fire, 2 incidents in which munitions were fired at the Yaron area, Maayan Baruch and Metula, and 1 anti-tank fire incident.
Since the beginning of the war, 3,094 attacks have been carried out in the northern arena, the vast majority of which were carried out by Hezbollah.
Prominent launching and shooting incidents against Israel
Earlier this week, IDF forces identified terrorists attempting to plant an IED near the border fence. The terrorists, Hezbollah operatives, were eliminated and their body camera footage was published.
(September 19) Hezbollah fired about 20 Grad rockets at Ramot Naftali and Kiryat Shmona. According to Hezbollah, this attack occurred in response to the IDF attack in Hula, where a Hezbollah operative was killed, and for the attacks in Blida and Kafr Shuba.
(September 19) Hezbollah fired between 6 and 7 heavy Burkan rockets at the village of Metula, causing heavy damage to homes and the loss of electricity in the hamlet.
(September 20) Hezbollah carried out 16 attacks against Israel, including the launching of 120 Grad rockets at Safed, the Golan Heights and the Upper Galilee, and about 20 Grad rockets at Meron and Netua.
(September 22) Hezbollah fired about 30 rockets called Fadi 1 and 2 in three volleys toward the Jezreel Valley area (about 50 km from the border between Israel and Lebanon). According to Hezbollah, the attacks were carried out in response to attacks on civilians in Lebanon. In addition, Hezbollah fired about 85 Fadi 1 and 2 rockets toward the Haifa area.
According to Hezbollah, the Fadi 1 rocket has a warhead of 83 kg, a diameter of 220 mm, a length of 6 meters and a range of 70 km. The Fadi 2 rocket can carry a warhead of 170 kg, has a diameter of 302 mm, a length of 6 meters and a range of 100 km. These rockets were originally developed and manufactured in Syria. Most likely at the CERS Institute. This is the first time Hezbollah has used these rockets in the current conflict.
According to Hezbollah, the rockets were launched in response to the explosions of Hezbollah operatives’ pagers and hand-held radios. Hezbollah claimed that all the attacks were carried out against military targets: the Ramat David air base and Rafael facilities north of Haifa. In practice, however, most of Hezbollah’s attacks hit civilian areas, homes, agricultural structures, causing fires in open areas, mainly in the cities of Nazareth, Kiryat Bialik and the Lower Galilee. This is a significant expansion of Hezbollah’s firing ranges by means of inaccurate rockets and, in effect, putting about a million Israelis into harm’s way, threatened by inaccurate rockets.
For more information on recent events, see our article – Overview of the weekend’s events (September 20-22).
Hezbollah and other organization casualties
Over the past week (16-22 sept.), Hezbollah released statements reporting 65 of its military operatives killed, many as a result of the explosions of hand-held radios and pagers (September 17-18) and the elimination of Ibrahim Aqil and the heads of the Radwan command in Beirut (September 20).
As of October 8, 2023, a total of 506 Hezbollah operatives have been killed. Most of the operatives killed originated south of the Litani River (323 operatives killed, constituting 63% of all the operatives killed). Many Hezbollah operatives and their families live in southern Lebanon near the border with Israel. They operate in southern Lebanon as part of Hezbollah’s geographical units (Nasr/Aziz) and Hezbollah’s designated units (Radwan unit), while assimilating into the civilian population (human shield tactics).
This week it was reported that a Palestinian Islamic Jihad operative was killed in southern Lebanon. According to reports in Lebanon, since the beginning of the war, 65 operatives of other organizations in Lebanon have been killed, including Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Amal movement, Al-Jama’ah al-Islamiyah (Al-Fajr), the Lebanese Resistance Brigades and Fatah.
Eliminations of senior Hezbollah figures
This week, Ibrahim Aqil, a member of the Jihad Council and head of Hezbollah’s operations directorate, was eliminated. In addition, 15 other senior commanders from the Radwan unit were eliminated with him, including the unit’s acting commander and five commanders of its attack sectors. See the article the elimination of Ibrahim Aqil (September 20) – meanings and recommendations for the future.
Since October 8, 2023, 65 senior Hezbollah operatives were eliminated. The most senior of them, Fouad Shakar, a member of the Jihad Council, head of Hezbollah’s strategic systems and Ibrahim Aqil, head of operations and commander of the Radwan unit.
- 47.6% of those eliminated, a total of 30, belonged to the Radwan unit, including acting unit commanders Wassam al-Tawil (January 2024) and Ahmad Mahmoud Wahbi (September 2024).
- 33.3% of those killed, a total of 21, were from the geographic units (Southern Front), with an emphasis on the Nasser unit, including unit commander Haj Abu Taleb and Aziz unit commander Ahmad Naama Nasser. The emphasis in the Radwan unit and in the geographical units is placed on eliminating commanders of sectors (equivalent to brigade commanders) and commanders in professional formations (rockets/anti-tanks, etc.).
- 3 senior operatives from Hezbollah’s air unit.
- Another 3 from Hezbollah’s air defense array.
- A senior operative in Hezbollah’s weapons transfer unit from Syria to Lebanon.
- An operative in the engineering unit and a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council.
- 6.3% of those eliminated, a total of 4, constituted knowledge centers in the fields of research/development/production of weapons and combat support technology.
Elimination efforts are important and necessary. However, it is crucial to inflict significant damage on Hezbollah’s rocket fire systems and military infrastructure in southern Lebanon, as well as to inflict damage on its strategic fire systems and infrastructure deep within Lebanon.
Prominent airstrikes in Lebanon
(September 17) At 3:30 P.M., numerous pager devices exploded while being carried by thousands of Hezbollah operatives in Hezbollah’s areas of activity throughout the Lebanon and Syria. The Iranian ambassador to Lebanon (a senior IRGC official) carrying a pager was also wounded (another proof of the intimate connection between Iran and Hezbollah). This was a severe operational, intelligence and propaganda blow to Hezbollah, which immediately blamed Israel. The attached map of hospital deployment to which the casualties were evacuated in Lebanon and Syria illustrates the magnitude of the incident. For more information on the incident, see the article Thousands of small bombs were detonated in Lebanon – the beeper attack – details and significance.
(September 18) The day after the pager attacks, a second wave of explosions shook Hezbollah, while many hand-held radios belonging to Hezbollah operatives suddenly exploded. The Lebanese Health Ministry reports that the explosions of pagers and hand-held radios resulted in 39 fatalities and 3,000 injuries.
(September 19) IAF fighter jets attacked about 100 rocket launchers and other military infrastructure, including about 1,000 launcher barrels ready for immediate firing toward Israel territory. Earlier in the day, IAF fighter jets attacked another 30 rocket launchers, each containing about 150 launching barrels, with the intention of launching them immediately into Israel territory.
(September 20) Israel targeted a building in Beirut where senior Hezbollah operative Ibrahim Aqil was staying, along with 15 senior members of the Radwan unit’s chain of command. Ibrahim Aqil was a member of the Jihad Council and head of the Operations Directorate; among other things, the Radwan unit is subordinate to him. Aqil is the second member of the Jihad Council, Hezbollah’s high military command, eliminated. According to the Lebanese Health Ministry, the attack in Beirut killed 50 people. Apart from Aqil, the attack also claimed the lives of several other senior commanders belonging to the Radwan Unit. Among them was Ahmad Mahmoud Wahbi (Abu Hussein Samir), who served as the head of the training unit in Radwan and was a former commander of Radwan. He returned to de facto command the unit after the elimination of Wassam al-Tawil on January 11.
(September 21) Israeli Air Force fighter jets attacked about 290 targets in Lebanon, including Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure, rocket launchers and thousands of launcher barrels ready to be launched immediately into Israel territory.
In recent days, the IDF has been carrying out significant attacks in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley to eliminate Hezbollah rocket and missile firing capabilities aimed at the State of Israel. The IDF has conducted over 150 airstrikes across Lebanon since the morning of September 23. The IDF Spokesperson, in his announcements to the media today (September 23), called on Lebanese residents in south Lebanon and the Beqaa to stay away from buildings and properties where Hezbollah hides its weapons and uses Lebanon civilians as human shields. This is for the protection and security of the Lebanese citizens. As a result, civilians in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley reported today that they had begun receiving SMS messages on their phones with the same message.
Hezbollah – General:
(September 18) A meeting of Hamas and Hezbollah representatives: Raafat Mera, in charge of Hamas’ social activities in Lebanon, received a delegation from Hezbollah’s trade unions and labor unit, headed by Hashem Salhab and his aides, which are subordinate to Hezbollah’s Executive Council. The meeting dealt with the state of the war and developments in the war with Israel. At the meeting, the delegates stressed the importance of the unity of the Palestinian and Lebanese peoples, and the importance of the achievements of the resistance on the various fronts.
(September 18) The heads of the federation of labor unions in northern Lebanon, the land transport union and the Tripoli port workers’ union held a rally in solidarity with Hezbollah operatives injured in the pager explosions. The participants sent a letter to Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and the resistance leadership, in which they wrote: “We support every step you take” and called on the resistance leadership to respond harshly, because a crime that harms the homeland must not go unpunished.”
(September 19) Nasrallah’s speech – in light of the explosions of pagers and hand-held radios in the hands of Hezbollah operatives
Nasrallah began his speech by saying that Israel had crossed all the red lines and laws in this attack. He said the attack was unprecedented and would be met with Hezbollah’s retaliation. Nasrallah’s speech focused mainly on the harming civilians during the events, with the aim of legitimizing Hezbollah’s attacks. He noted that the pagers exploded in areas such as hospitals, pharmacies, markets, homes and public roads, causing civilian casualties. Nasrallah called the attacks a great massacre and called it a declaration of war.
Nasrallah tried to portray that the attacks had failed, noting that thanks to the grace of God and the efforts of the people of Lebanon, the enemy’s intentions to kill thousands had failed. “The enemy also aimed, through the massacres on Tuesday and Wednesday, to damage the command-and-control structure system, causing weakness and confusion throughout the Hezbollah leadership, and this did not happen even for a moment.”
Nasrallah noted that “there is no doubt that we have suffered a security and humanitarian unprecedented blow in all the history of the resistance in Lebanon, as well as unprecedented at the level of Lebanon and the conflict with the Zionist enemy.”
“We will be able to overcome this difficult experience and say that this great blow will not bring us down through this experience and its lessons, and through it we will be stronger, stronger, firmer, more promising and able to deal with all options and risks,” Nasrallah said, adding: “This is the case of war and conflict, and we know that our enemy has superiority on the technological level because the West is behind it, and when we enter this confrontation, we bet on effort. Sacrifice, attrition and scoring to win.”
Nasrallah continued to reinforce the reason Hezbollah started a war with Israel on October 8 as a support for Gaza. According to him, it is the most effective front because it serves as leverage for Israel in favor of the Palestinians and the resistance in Gaza. Nasrallah reiterates, as in all his speeches in recent months, that despite the attacks, Hezbollah will not stop attacking Israel until the war in Gaza stops.
Nasrallah appealed to Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Galant and all the senior officials, saying that they would not be able to return the residents to their homes in the north, because the only way is to stop the war in Gaza. All the attacks on Lebanon will only increase the displacement of Israel residents from the north. Nasrallah repeats this in his speeches, in an attempt to incite the Israeli public, especially the residents of the north, against the leadership, which, he claims, is responsible of them not returning to their homes, not Hezbollah, which carries out daily attacks on their communities.
Regarding statements made by the commander of the Northern Command who said that a security zone should be established in southern Lebanon, Nasrallah said that Hezbollah hoped for the day Israel invades southern Lebanon, that it would be an opportunity for them. According to him, the idea will not give security to the residents, because Hezbollah will not attack IDF forces only in the security zone but will expand to Israel territory.
At the end of his speech, Nasrallah thanked the medical teams and all those who assisted in evacuating and treating the wounded.
Lebanon – General:
(September 17) A demonstration was held in front of the Directorate General of Vocational Education building in Dakuana on Mount Lebanon to protest the Education Ministry’s decisions regarding the enrollment of Syrian students in Lebanese educational institutions.
(September 17) At a meeting between the commander of the army, General Joseph Aoun, and Sheikh Saud bin Abd a-Rahman al-Thani, Qatar’s ambassador to Lebanon, it was decided to provide a financial grant of $15 million to supply fuel to the Lebanese army for a period of 3 months. This is in order to improve its ability to cope with the increasing security challenges in light of the economic conditions that Lebanon is experiencing.
(September 17-18) In light of the explosion of pagers and the fear of escalation between Hezbollah and Israel, several airlines canceled their flights to Lebanon.
(September 17-18) After the pagers exploded, several countries offered their help in treating the wounded in Lebanon: The Iraqi government sent a plane with medical equipment, Iran sent a delegation of doctors and nurses to help treat the wounded, and some of the wounded were evacuated to Iran for treatment, as the king of Jordan issued an order to the Jordanian Health Ministry to assist Lebanon as much as possible.
The Syrian arena:
(September 17) As part of the pager explosions it was reported that four persons were wounded in a vehicle near the village of Sousse in western Damascus, as well as four wounded who were brought to a hospital in Quneitra for treatment. In addition, at least one injury to Saida Zaynab was reported.
(September 20) An airstrike on the road leading to Damascus International Airport killed Abu Haider al-Khafaji, a senior member of the Shiite militias in Iraq. According to the official announcement of his death, he served as a military advisor in Damascus.
Syria -General:
(September 16) In light of the transportation crisis that began due to the reduction of fuel allocations for public transportation, it was reported that the Ministry of Petroleum increased the allocations slightly. This was due to the irregular non-arrival of Iranian oil tankers at the port of Banias.
(September 18) In light of the explosions of pagers and hand-held radios in Lebanon, the Syrian Army informed all its units to stop using wireless communication and switch to wire communication only.
(September 22) The Jordan Army announced that it had foiled two attempts to smuggle drugs from Syria to Jordan using drones.
Shiite Axis – General
During the past week (September 16-23), the Islamic resistance in Iraq (the Shiite militias) claimed responsibility for eight attacks against Israel using UAVs and cruise missiles. On September 22 alone, the organization claimed responsibility for 5 attacks against Israel. Six incidents were reported in which airstrikes launched from Iraq that crossed into Israel territory were intercepted.
The significant increase in attacks by the Islamic resistance in Iraq against Israel in recent days apparently comes both in support of Hezbollah in light of the pager attacks and the elimination of Aqil, and in light of the elimination of senior operative Abu Haider al-Khafaji of the Shiite militias in southern Damascus (September 20). Although this is not stated in the official announcements of their taking responsibility. Khafaji was killed in an airstrike on the road leading to Damascus International Airport, and according to the official announcement of his death, he served as a military advisor in Damascus.
Yemen – Houthi-land:
During the past week, coalition forces managed to strike one UAV, which posed an immediate threat to freedom of movement in international waters.
This week, the Houthis claimed responsibility for shooting down another American MQ9 UAV.
Since October 2023, there have been 202 Houthi strikes against Israel, the United States and other targets.
