By: Tal Beeri & Boaz Shapira
In recent weeks, media reports have increasingly highlighted progress in negotiations between Israel and Lebanon concerning a potential ceasefire agreement. As previously noted, we assess that as reports of a ceasefire and an agreement gain momentum, Hezbollah is likely to seek psychological and propaganda achievements.
Recently, it appears that Hezbollah has escalated its use of heavier rockets and missiles targeting the Haifa and Krayot areas. This escalation is aimed at creating a psychological impact and achieving a perceived victory by causing more substantial damage—both in terms of property and human casualties.
It is important to emphasize that there is no increase in the number or frequency of attacks but rather a shift in the type of weaponry Hezbollah uses. Comparing the last month (October 19 to November 19) to the previous month (September 19 to October 19), shows no significant increase in the number of attacks targeting Haifa and Krayot. In fact, there seems to be a decline in the number of rockets and missiles launched at these areas. Similarly, the number of attacks carried out south of Haifa, as well as the number of missiles and rockets launched to this area remains constant.
Throughout the war, Hezbollah has introduced several new types of weaponry, some of them were used for the first time. Below is an overview of the heavy rockets and missiles within Hezbollah’s arsenal:
Fadi 1– 220mm rocket manufactured by Hezbollah. The Fadi 1 is likely based on the Syrian M-220 rocket (itself derived from a Soviet source). When introduced, Hezbollah claimed that the rocket has a 70 km range and a warhead weighing 83 kg.
Fadi 2– A 302mm rocket, also based on a Syrian origin- the M-302 rocket (also known as Kheibar-1). The Fadi 2 has a range of 100 km and is equipped with a 170 kg warhead. Like many other Hezbollah’s arsenal, these rockets can be launched from a multi-barrel launcher, which can be mounted in fixed installations or on a truck-based mobile launcher.
Fadi 6– A 302mm rocket with a 225 km range and a warhead weighing 140 kg. Hezbollah hasn’t provided much information or pictures of this rocket but it appears to be based on the M-302 design (although a 100 kg lighter). It is possible that Hezbollah added the Fadi 6 with a guidance kit. According to Hezbollah, the Fadi 6 was first used on November 12 2024.
Nasr 1– Hezbollah claims this rocket has a range of 100 km and a warhead weighing 100 kg. Based on pictures and videos published by Hezbollah we asses that this is an M-302 rocket retrofitted with a guidance kit, effectively transforming it into a missile.
Nasr 2– A 302mm rocket with a range of 150 km and a warhead weighing 140 kg. Although Hezbollah provided limited details about the Nasr 2, available information and images suggests it is highly likely a precision guided missile.
Hezbollah claims the Nasr 2 was first used operationally on October 20 2024.
Fajr 5– An Iranian rocket used by Hezbollah. As early as 2006, during the second Lebanon war. The Fajr 5 has a range of 75 km and a warhead weighing 175 kg (90 kg high-explosive).
Apparently, Hezbollah’s first use of this rocket during the current war was made on November 18 2024.
Qadr 1– An Iranian ballistic missile with 190 km range and a warhead weighing 500 kg. It appears to be one of the Fateh-100 early versions.
Qadr 2– Most likely an Iranian Zelzal-2 missiles retrofitted with a guidance kit
and different rear fins. According to Hezbollah, the Qader 2 has a range of
250 km and a warhead weighing 405 kg.
Fateh-110– An Iranian-made ballistic missile developed during the 90s. Iran has introduced several generations of the Fateh-110 over the years, with ranges up to 300 km and warheads weighing up to 500 kg. Hezbollah apparently first used this missile during November 2024.
| DIAMETER | LENGTH | WARHEAD | RANGE | |
| 220 mm | 6 m | 83 kg | 70 km | Fadi 1 |
| 302 mm | 6 m | 170 kg | 100 km | Fadi 2 |
| 302 mm | 6~ m | 140 kg | 225 km | Fadi 6 |
| 302 mm | 6.5~ m | 100 kg | 100 km | Nasr 1 |
| 302 mm | 140 kg | 150 km | Nasr 2 | |
| 333 mm | 6.5 m | 175 kg | 75 km | Fajr 5 |
| 620 mm | 7.6 m | 500 kg | 190 km | Qader 1 |
| 620 mm | 8.6 m | 405 kg | 250 km | Qader 2 |
| 610 mm | 8.6 n | 500 kg | 300 km | Fateh 110 |
