Suwayda Situation Report – July 16, 13:00

Despite the Syrian regime’s announcement of a ceasefire in Suwayda yesterday, violent clashes have continued between Druze factions, Bedouin militias, and regime forces, which have deployed additional reinforcements to the region.

Overnight, Druze forces launched a counteroffensive and temporarily gained control over several neighborhoods in Suwayda. However, most of these areas were retaken by regime troops earlier this morning (July 16).

Simultaneously, the IDF carried out a new wave of air strikes targeting roads, convoys, and regime sites, aiming to prevent transfer of reinforcements and weapons. The IDF also struck the gates of the Syrian military headquarters building in Damascus around noon today. As of this writing, fighting continues. Estimated casualties from both sides have exceeded 250, with most of the dead being combatants with Druze forces inflicting significant losses on regime troops.

This morning (July 16), the Druze leadership in Israel intensified pressure on the Israeli government, issuing a statement calling for a general strike and urging members of the Druze community to cross into Syria and support their brothers in Suwayda. By noon, dozens of civilians had managed to cross the border fence heading eastward.

It is important to note that Suwayda is located approximately 60 km from Israel, with the Sunni-populated Daraa province lying between them. Any civilian entry into Syrian territory- especially with the intent of reaching Suwayda- carries significant risks. Such actions could endanger those involved and jeopardize Israel’s broader efforts to support the Druze in Syria.

Within Syria, the Druze community itself is divided on how to respond. On one side are figures like Sheikh Laith al-Balous and members of the Rijal al-Karama movement, who lean toward cooperating with the new regime and oppose military confrontation. Opposing them are leaders such as Sheikh al-Hijri, who view the current regime as degrading and humiliating to the Druze, and who call for resistance with support from Druze communities worldwide.

A third perspective is represented by Sheikh Jarboa, one of Syria’s most prominent Druze leaders. He advocates for resolving the crisis within the framework of the Syrian state and firmly opposes Israeli intervention. In an interview with Al-Hadath, he stated that the Druze have never sought such intervention and that it has consistently harmed their relationship with the Syrian state. According to Jarboe the Israeli interference is a “double-edged “sword and it has harmed the Druze and the general security of Syria. Solutions for Suwayda must come from within Syria. He also warned against internationalizing the Suwayda crisis, arguing that foreign powers often have interests misaligned with those of the Druze in the region.

While there are disturbing videos showing civilian casualties and humiliations of Druze individuals at the hands of regime forces, some of whom are jihadist elements committing what likely constitute war crimes, this is not, at the time of writing, a genocide or mass extermination campaign, despite claims made by some parties.

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Alma Research

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