In June 2023, about nine months ago, we published an article titled “Aamchit: Hezbollah’s civilian entrenchment in a Christian area in preparation for a military takeover”. At the same time, we published a video, which is a complementary product to the article, which visually presents the area of the Jabal Musa reserve in Jabal and Keserwan that crosses the mountain from the Bekaa Valley in the east to the coast in the west. The video shows an assessment that the site could be used as a weapons storage site and as a potential launch site.
The article and video presented both facts and estimates:
The facts presented: Hezbollah operates in areas beyond its natural control to gain a foothold within the Maronite Christian community. Hezbollah seeks to take control of the area between Baalbek in the east and Aamchit in the west. Thus, Hezbollah aims to construct Shiite territorial continuity from the Bekaa Valley in the east to the Mediterranean Sea in the west.
The assessments presented: The territorial continuity will allow Hezbollah to mobilize weapons and forces from its logistical hinterland in the Bekaa Valley, to the west, and then to Beirut. This geographic strip can serve as a potential storage and launching location for Hezbollah’s medium-range ballistic missile array, etc.
It should be emphasized that the film that is attached to the article focuses on presenting the findings from a topographical-operational examination of the region, which includes locating tunnels constructed for an abandoned civilian water project.
The above video was recently shared on Lebanese social networks, causing enormous commotion. We noticed that during the widespread reverberation of the publication, some of our assessment offered, was reported on social media in Lebanon as facts. Some even stated that there were already missiles stationed at the site ready to be launched ( See, for example, the publication from February 20 in the link)
On February 21, 2024, a Christian-oriented organization called the Lebanese Revolutionary Organization announced on social media the results of an updated tour conducted by its representatives in the Jabal Musa area in general, and the tunnel area in particular. The results included images from the tour, and it was reported that inside the tunnels, they saw persons they identified as security personnel guarding the location.
According to the aforesaid publication, these are tunnels used by Hezbollah for concealing weapons. The question was also asked whether these weapons depots specifically positioned in Christian areas, and whether Nasrallah and Hezbollah were preparing for a religious war in Lebanon.
See the X post of the “Lebanon Revolutionary Organization”:
In our professional assessment, there is no doubt that in an escalation and an outbreak of a future all-out war, Hezbollah intended to use this area as a military zone for transporting forces, storing weapons and launching missiles, rockets and UAVs against Israel.
However, it is possible that now, in light of all the reports on the subject, Hezbollah’s plans have gone awry…
It should be highlighted that dozens of social media pages have recently uploaded our nine-month-old film, which has received several comments (see samples in the appendix). On February 21, the Lebanese Ministry of Energy issued an official denial in response to the numerous social media posts and media coverage.
The facilities seen in the video published by the Alma Center and circulated on social networks, which claim that it shows the presence of rocket sites in Jabel and Keserwan, are facilities of the Beirut and Mount Lebanon water works, and among them the tunnel that was built to divert the water of the Ibrahim River for the construction of the Jena Dam, and the valley surrounding the dam, which resulted from the excavation work carried out there, emphasizing that these facilities have nothing to do with the claims regarding the infrastructure.
The ministry concluded its explanatory notes by saying that its publication “is intended to prevent the enemy from continuing its claims and justifying attacks on facilities belonging to official institutions of public interest.”
The Al-Mayadeen website (Hezbollah’s main mouthpiece) published a large article including the Energy Ministry denial, and also stating that “the day after the occupation attacked factories and warehouses in the town of Ghaziyah (February 20, near Sidon) claiming that they were weapons storehouses for the resistance, an Israeli research website publishes photos of a diversion tunnel belonging to the Beirut and Mount Lebanon Water Company claiming that it also belongs to the resistance, the Ministry of Energy refutes the claim.”
In conclusion, as noted, our publication from nine months ago dealt with presenting facts regarding Hezbollah’s takeover of a geographic strip located in a Christian area. This takeover begins with the civilian entrenchment – In Christian and Shiite villages – that precedes the infrastructure of a military entrenchment. On the other hand, it is our assessment that the military potential in this geographic strip is significant and can serve Hezbollah, inter alia, as a weapons storage area and for launching missiles, rockets and UAVs.
The rival sides within Lebanon have used our publication to promote and amplify the main narratives in their cognitive manipulation efforts and campaigns:
Hezbollah and its supporters used the publication to amplify the narrative that “Israel is interested in justifying attacks on civilian facilities by falsely claiming that they contain weapons” and thus in effect trying to obscure their human and civilian shield tactics.
It should be noted that even when there is conclusive evidence that weapons were found in the places attacked (see the explosions in Ghazia from February 20), Hezbollah and its sympathizers respond in the campaign that these are “completely civilian and innocent structures…”
From past events, it seems that the greater the denial of Hezbollah and its sympathizers, the more suspicious it is…
On the other hand, Hezbollah’s opponents highlighted the publication during a time of high-security tensions, using it to demonstrate the significant, immediate and the real threat to Lebanon posed by Hezbollah’s very existence and activity.
Appendix – Examples of comments and posts on social networks:
- Raymond Shakir – Mukhtar of the town of Jadida al-Matan in Mount Lebanon:
The Israeli enemy claims the existence of Hezbollah missile sites in Jbeil and Keserwan… Mikati and Abu Habib are immediately required to deny the Israeli allegations by filming all the sites mentioned in the “fabricated” video and forwarding them to the UN Security Council.
- The official website lebanonfile posted the video and wrote: “Hezbollah’s tunnels in Jbeil and Keserwan carry economic risks.”
- Hassan al-Dar, the political correspondent for the aliwaa.com.lb website, shared that this is a very dangerous issue, explaining that the institute is based on civilian research activities, pictures of Amal and Hezbollah flags, and scout activity in villages known for their political affiliation!
Hassan’s post received 97K views and many comments, some from concerned sources and some mocking that it lacked any basis.
a) “Google Maps is a very dangerous site, access to it should be removed”.
b) “Take down the Hezbollah flags and put crates of tomatoes in their place and everything will be fine.”
c) “You and other people like you, the best agents of the Israeli Mossad, share the posts and help spread the lie.”
d) “They can’t overcome the people of the south, so they moved to Jbeil and Keserwan”
e) “He only reveals his modus operandi and how he used to shoot down the fighters, otherwise these scenes are just a last ditch attempt to frighten Hezbollah and dissuade it from responding.”
- Fares Su’ad, an online influencer identified with the March 14 Alliance with more than 220K followers, wrote two posts, each of which received over 15K exposure that day, in which he noted that this is very dangerous information that requires urgent attention by the Lebanese army. His two posts drew much criticism from Hezbollah supporters, calling him a collaborator and causing him to delete them and publish a new post clarifying his statements.
A video circulated by a “website” talking about an incident in Baalbek by sea and through the Shiite villages in Jbeil, it is a military route, which caused great concern. I have spoken dozens of times about the severity of the security chaos, the information is dangerous, the military leadership is dormant and we are dormant in our homes.
In another article, he stated that if the tunnels in the Jenna area are truly part of the diversion dam, a day of patrol on the Bekaa-Jbeil road should be organized, and the army should take action after an Israeli website reported the matter.
- Other influencers wrote, “The Israeli enemy falsely claims the existence of military sites to justify violations of the World Human Rights Organization or to intimidate, provoke conflict, and harm national peace.
