Key insights:
Hezbollah’s activity in Lebanon is most likely influenced by the fighting in southern Lebanon. It seems that the scope of Hezbollah’s public events throughout Lebanon has declined.
Although Hezbollah is careful to declare that civilian blood is equal to civilian blood and even fires at Israeli communities, Hezbollah avoids taking responsibility for shooting incidents in which civilians were killed.
The amount of public claims of culpability by Iraqi Shi’ite militias for strikes on Israel (the launch of UAVs) has grown. It should be emphasized that public notice and claim of responsibility do not always imply that an attack was carried out.
As of this writing, 276 military operatives have been killed in the conflict in the north. Of these, 241 are Hezbollah operatives, while 35 (about 12%) are from the forces that support Hezbollah in the fighting in Lebanon: the Amal movement (11), Hamas (9), the Muslim Brotherhood (Sponsored by Hamas) (3), the PIJ (9), the Imam Hussein militia (considered Hezbollah operatives), the Lebanese Resistance Brigades (2), and the Syrian National Socialist Movement (1).
The Lebanese arena:
War data:
In Israel, the government evacuated 43 communities located up to five kilometers from the Lebanese border. A total of about 61,000 citizens. To them were added several thousand more who decided to evacuate independently.
It should be noted that not all Israeli communities have been totally evacuated, and there is still a civilian presence. This is because these communities rely on tourism and agriculture. Farmers come to work on the land, in the orchards, tending to cow and goat herds. Furthermore, some of the communities’ industrial plants are still operational and employ workers from non-evacuated areas.
The Israeli government has extended the evacuation period until the summer of 2024 (July/August 2024).
Hezbollah has killed 5 Israeli civilians and 1 agricultural worker with foreign citizenship so far. A total of 6 civilians were killed.
Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 57 launching and firing incidents against Israel during the last week, using (Almas) anti-tank missiles, Grads/Falk/Burkan ballistic missiles and UAVs.
11 attacks were launched and fired at civilian targets this week using Grad rockets and anti-tank missiles toward: Margaliot, Gesher HaZiv, Kiryat Shmona, Kfar Blum, Avivim, Avdon, Metula and Meron.
Another 16 times high-trajectory missile fire was carried out this week. In practice, these are areas to which ballistic missile fire holds a high potential for damage to civilian communities.
Another 16 times ballistic missiles were fired at areas designated by Hezbollah as military targets. In actuality, these are locations in which ballistic missile firing has the potential to cause significant damage to civilian communities.
Prominent launching and shooting incidents against Israel:
(March 04) Anti-tank missile fired at agricultural workers at Margaliot. A total of 8 injured: one killed, 2 in serious condition, 4 in moderate condition, and 1 in mild condition (Hezbollah did not claim responsibility for the shooting).
(March 7) Two anti-tank missiles hit two buildings in Metula.
(March 10) rocket fire (a volley of about 35 rockets) at the community of Meron.
Hezbollah casualties:
Hezbollah declared last week that 12 of its operatives had been killed. Furthermore, on March 10, an anti-tank team consisting of three Al-Fajr operatives – Al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya (Muslim Brotherhood), acting under the auspices of Hamas and Lebanon – was eliminated in the Al-Habariya area.
As of October 8, 2023, a total of 241 Hezbollah operatives have been killed. Most of the operatives killed live south of the Litani River (160 operatives killed, constituting 66% of all the operatives killed). Many Hezbollah operatives and their families live in southern Lebanon near the border with Israel. They operate in southern Lebanon as part of Hezbollah’s geographic units (Nasser/Aziz) and Hezbollah’s designated units (Radwan unit), while assimilating into the civilian population (human shield tactics).
Prominent attacks in Lebanon:
March 9 – An airstrike on a building in Khirbet Salem killed four people: three Hezbollah operatives and a woman. The four are members of the same family: the father (56) and the two sons (31 and 28), all three were Hezbollah operatives. The mother was also killed. One of the sons, ‘Ali Ja’far Marji, was born in 1993. He also serves as a physics teacher in Hezbollah’s independent education system. It is probable that nine years ago (January 28, 2015) he was involved as an operative in shooting at IDF vehicles traveling near the village of Ghajar. In this incident, two IDF soldiers were killed and five were wounded.
Hezbollah – General:
(March 4) Following the three incidents in which foreigners were detained in Beirut during the past two weeks by Hezbollah – Hezbollah took exceptional security measures in the southern suburb of Beirut, out of fear of “hostile Israeli activity” while tightening its security at strategic sites and places affiliated with Hezbollah.
(March 05) In light of the state of war and Israeli attacks, Hezbollah and the Amal movement had a coordination conference to discuss civil defense activity (rescue/rescue/firefighting, among other things).
Lebanon – General:
(March 2004) Theft of crops by Syrian refugees in southern Lebanon taking advantage of the absence of the locals due to their evacuation as a result of the security situation. So far, about 21 tons of nuts and avocados have been reported stolen.
(Mar. 10) According to the Aldiyar daily, as a result of events in Lebanon over the last four years, such as the Beirut port explosion and the coronavirus, the minimum monthly income has decreased to $600, which is only paid in large firms and cities. Furthermore, Lebanon has the world’s highest unemployment rate among people aged 18 to 28, 47.8%, according to the International Labor Organization.
The Syrian arena:
Prominent airstrikes in Syria:
NTR
Syria – General:
(March 5) The Irish government decided to cease the participation of its soldiers in the UN emergency force in the Golan and evacuate the vast majority of the soldiers by the end of April 24. Most of the force’s heavy equipment, including several armored vehicles, will be evacuated and sent to Ireland via the port of Beirut.
(March 05) Iranian oil continues to reach Syria: Recent satellite images show that five Iranian ships are unloading or waiting outside the port of Banias.
(March 10) The Iranian Civil Aviation Authority announced the suspension of flights due to unspecified special circumstances in Syria. The resolution will not include routine pilgrimages to Shiite holy sites.
Shiite Axis – General:
Following a three-week hiatus, the American base at Conoco (eastern Syria) may have been attacked on March 10. The attack was reportedly carried out using a UVA. It should be stated that the latest attack against US bases in Iraq and Syria occurred on February 20. At this point, it is unknown whether the Axis has decided to resume its attacks.
Since October 2023, there have been more than 160 shooting incidents at U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria, mostly in eastern Syria.
During the past week the Shiite militias in Iraq claimed responsibility for launching five UAVs at Israel:
(March 05) – UAV launched towards Haifa. Shot down by an Israeli Air Force plane (F-15) before entering Israeli skies.
(March 06) – Taking responsibility for launching a UAV at the Kiryat Shmona airport – there is no further indication.
(March 7) – Taking responsibility for launching a UAV at Rosh Pina Airport – there is no further indication.
(March 8) – Taking responsibility for launching a UAV at the Haifa refineries – there is no further indication.
Taking responsibility for launching a UAV at an “intelligence base” in the Golan Heights – there is no further indication.
Yemen – Houthi-land:
During the past week, coalition forces managed to hit 41 UAVs and 12 missiles launched or intended for launch by the Houthis.
(March 06) A ballistic missile struck the bulk carrier “True Confidence” in the Gulf of Aden. The ship is Greek-owned and managed by a Cypriot corporation. The workforce consisted of 20 persons plus three-armed security guards. The crew included 15 Filipinos, 4 Vietnamese, 2 Sri Lankans, 1 Indian, and 1 Nepalese. The ship’s destination was the port of Jeddah. The incident claimed three lives and left six people wounded.
Since October 2023, there have been 81 Houthi shooting incidents against ships and the like.
Ship traffic in the Suez Canal decreased by about 50 percent compared to last year.
