As of 28 March 2026, Sentinel-2 satellite imagery @CopernicusEU shows the runway on Abu Musa Island has not been targeted by US airstrikes and remains intact, while various other targets on Abu Musa were destroyed in the initial strikes between March 01 to 16. In our estimation, sparing the runway is a key indication that the US is keeping the use of ground forces as a realistic option, and the introduction of 3,500 troops into the Gulf is not merely posturing. The runway holds strategic value as it is in the middle of the Gulf (40 miles from the UAE), which would allow US troops to airlift more troops and heavier equipment onto the island to directly repel Iranian attacks on international shipping. In the first wave of strikes (March 01 – 06), a focus was placed on destroying the eastside airfield infrastructure used by the IRGC, with at least three buildings and three hangars destroyed. The eastern port was also targeted, along with the westside power plant. The second wave of strikes (March 07 – 16) destroyed at least six more buildings across the island and exactly six bunkers. Abu Musa is a labyrinth of bunkers for the IRGC to conceal the locations of their anti-ship missile launchers and other weapons systems. The blast site at each targeted bunker in the March 16th imagery is vast and appears to be the result of secondary explosions. Only specific bunkers were targeted, leaving dozens intact, and these could still be sheltering anti-ship missile launchers, mobile anti-aircraft systems, and other threats. Dozens of anti-aircraft guns remain along the coast as of March 28 and would need to be neutralized for US forces to land on the island by helicopter or amphibious assault. US troops landing on Abu Musa would immediately make them a target for Iranian ballistic missiles and one-way attack UAVs. Therefore, the probability of casualties upon landing on the island is near certain. One option to avoid such a scenario would be for US troops to sweep and clear Abu Musa of threats, withdraw, and then prevent Iranian forces from reentering the island with stand-off munitions. This form of raid would mitigate the possibility of a protracted conflict.
