Credit: IDF Spokesperson
In the early morning hours of June 13th, the Air Force launched Operation Rising Lion, a preemptive and large-scale series of airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear program and its strategic assets.
The operation shifted the conflict from a years-long shadow war between Israel and Iran to a direct, state-versus-state military confrontation. Over the first four days, the IDF conducted a complex, multi-domain, and unprecedentedly large-scale air campaign, with the goal of dismantling the pillars of the Iranian threat: the nuclear program, the ballistic missile array, and the regime’s command and control chain.
The Strategic Logic and Timing: The Point of No Return
The decision to launch the operation was based on an accumulation of alarming intelligence indicating that Iran had reached the point of no return in its pursuit of a nuclear bomb. As a military official explained in a briefing on June 13, the decision stemmed from the understanding that the Iranian regime had significantly accelerated its progress toward a nuclear weapon, in parallel with its declared intentions to destroy the State of Israel.
“Today, Iran is closer than ever to obtaining a nuclear weapon,” the official stated. “A weapon of mass destruction in the hands of the Iranian regime is an existential threat to the State of Israel and a significant threat to the wider world… The State of Israel will not allow a regime whose goal is to destroy the State of Israel to obtain a weapon of mass destruction.”
The Head of the Intelligence Directorate, Maj. Gen. Shlomi Binder, reinforced this in a conversation with his subordinates on the first day of the operation: “We are entering a campaign that is nothing less than existential, against an enemy that seeks to destroy us, that seeks to develop nuclear capabilities, and is advancing rapidly in its nuclear development. It also seeks to develop conventional weapons in the largest quantities.”
The Iranian threat, as defined by a military official, consisted of three cumulative components that created an immediate existential threat:
- The Nuclear Trigger: Israeli intelligence, backed by reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), indicated that Iran was not only enriching uranium but was also advancing a secret program to assemble nuclear weapons (the weapon group). “We are revealing for the first time that the Iranian regime has been advancing a secret program to assemble a nuclear weapon,” the official revealed. “Within this program, nuclear scientists and senior officials in Iran worked on the secret development of all the necessary components for developing a nuclear weapon – explosives, the core (enriched uranium), and a neutron source.” According to the intelligence assessment, the regime had enough fissile material for approximately 15 nuclear bombs within days.
- Ballistic Missiles: The assessment was that Iran possesses thousands of ballistic missiles, with plans to double and triple the quantity, in a way that constitutes an existential threat even without nuclear weapons. Iran planned to produce 8,000 ballistic missiles in the near future, which would create an existential threat in its own right, under a nuclear umbrella.
- Weapons Proliferation to Regional Proxies: Concurrently, efforts by Iran to arm its proxies in the Middle East were identified, as part of a concrete plan for the destruction of Israel.
Another crucial factor in the timing.
For years, the Iranian network of terror armies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria served as a strategic deterrent against Israel. During the war, Israel slowly but surely managed to systematically dismantle the threat of firepower and ground invasion that Iran has developed through the Shiite axis. meaning that Israel now faces off against Iran on its own, without its proxies doing the heavy lifting and firing tens of thousands of projectiles on behalf of the Islamic Republic.
The Opening Strike: Achieving Air Superiority and Disrupting Iranian Command (June 13-14)
Operation Rising Lion opened with an unprecedented flyover of about 200 Israeli Air Force fighter jets, that flew simultaneously a distance of about 1,500 kilometers to attack over 150 targets with more than 400 munitions during the first 24 hours. The immediate goal, as explained by former Air Force Commander, Maj. Gen. (res.) Amikam Norkin, was to achieve air superiority deep in enemy territory. “The distance between Israel and Tehran is 1,500 kilometers. So these are quite long missions,” Norkin noted.
The first wave of strikes was a complex symphony of precision blows, that focused on three main targets simultaneously:
- Neutralizing the Air Defense Array: The first and most critical step was to ‘clear the skies.’ The IDF completed “a large-scale attack against the Iranian regime’s air defense array in western Iran,” as stated in an official announcement from the IDF Spokesperson on June 13. As part of the attack, the IDF stated, dozens of radars and surface-to-air missile launchers were destroyed. This success was essential to allow the Air Force freedom of action in Iran’s skies for the continuation of the operation. Norkin noted in another JINSA institute webinar, held on June 16, that air superiority was achieved “much earlier than I expected,” and was based on “very good intelligence.”
- Targeted Assassinations in the Command Chain: In parallel with the attack on the defense systems, the Air Force carried out, with precise intelligence guidance, a series of targeted assassinations of Iran’s top military-security echelon. On the very first day of the operation, the IDF confirmed the elimination of “the three most senior military commanders of the Iranian regime”: Chief of Staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri; Commander of the Revolutionary Guards, General Hossein Salami; and Commander of the Emergency Array Headquarters, General Gholam Ali Rashid. In addition, the entire senior command echelon of the Revolutionary Guards’ Air Force was eliminated, including its commander, Amir Ali Hajizadeh. A military official emphasized the importance of the assassinations on June 14: “Each one of them is far more significant than [Qasem] Soleimani… These are the people pushing for the destruction of Israel.”
- Ballistic Missile Hunt: The third objective of the opening strike was to destroy Iranian ballistic missiles that were on immediate launch alert toward Israel. The IDF released videos showing precise hits on launchers, which caused massive secondary explosions. This success was intended to reduce Iran’s immediate response capability and to minimize as much as possible severe harm to the Israeli home front.
The success of the opening strike paved the way for the next stages of the operation. On June 14, 30 hours into the campaign, a military official stated: “I can tell you now that the way to Tehran is effectively open. The air route to Tehran is effectively open. This doesn’t mean there are no threats. But… this is not something we could have said months ago.”
Systematic Dismantling of the Pillars of the Iranian Threat (June 14-17)
After achieving air superiority, the IDF continued a systematic campaign aimed at dismantling Iran’s strategic capabilities, focusing on the nuclear program, the missile array, and command and intelligence.
The Nuclear Program:
The IDF carried out extensive attacks on the main nuclear facilities in Natanz and Isfahan. On June 14, a military official stated that initial assessment indicates significant damage to both Isfahan and Natanz. The official said it will take “much more than a few weeks” to repair what happened in Natanz and Isfahan, adding, “ we have been able to push back their plan at these sites.” The official stressed that Israeli intelligence held “concrete evidence that the production in Isfahan was for military purposes… We saw concrete evidence that Iran is advancing towards a nuclear bomb and not just enriching [uranium]. Isfahan is one of the places we understood this was happening.” According to assessments, the sites sustained damage that would take Iran many months to repair if it tried to do so.
In addition, Prime Minister Netanyahu detailed on June 16 that uranium conversion facilities essential for weaponization and centrifuge production plants were also attacked. The campaign against the nuclear program also included the elimination of at least ten senior nuclear scientists. On June 15, the IDF also attacked the headquarters of the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND) in Tehran, a body considered to be Iran’s nuclear headquarters.
The Ballistic Missile Array:
The IDF conducted an ongoing “missile hunt” operation. By June 16, IDF Spokesperson, Brigadier General Effi Defrin, reported that the IDF had destroyed “over 120 surface-to-surface missile launchers, constituting one-third of the launchers in the hands of the Iranian regime.” He added: “These are large launchers, some of them carried on trucks and deployed across Iran. Each launcher was ready to fire dozens of missiles towards Israel’s home front and strategic assets.” The effort also focused on missile depots and production plants, with the aim of hitting the entire supply chain of the ballistic array. On June 17, a military official confirmed that the effort was bearing fruit, and the Iranian missile attacks had become less effective. The Imam Ali missile site – in Khorramabad, western Iran, was destroyed. This is an underground base of the Revolutionary Guards, with at least 8 tunnels and launch shafts from within the mountain. In addition, a headquarters area, air defense positions, and bunkers. The base is located at a distance of 1265 kilometers from central Israel. The Alma Center had previously identified several types of missiles at the site, including the Shahab-3, which has a range of 1300 kilometers and can carry an 800 to 1200 kilogram warhead.
The Command, Control, and Intelligence Array:
The blow to the Iranian leadership was deep and continuous. After the elimination of the three most senior commanders on the first day, the IDF continued a systematic campaign of assassinations. On June 16, the IDF announced the elimination of four senior Iranian intelligence officials, including the head of the Revolutionary Guards Intelligence Organization, Mohammad Kazemi, and his deputy, as well as the head of the Quds Force’s intelligence department, Mohsen Bakhri, and his deputy.
The crowning achievement of the assassination campaign came on June 17, when the IDF eliminated Ali Shadmani, who had been appointed just four days earlier as Iran’s wartime Chief of Staff, replacing Gholam Ali Rashid who was eliminated in the opening strike. The elimination of the Chief of Staff and his replacement within less than a week demonstrated Israel’s intelligence and air superiority and the vulnerability of the regime’s leadership. Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar commented on this ironically: “We still don’t know who will be the successor to the successor of Iran’s Chief of Staff. I recommend that whoever is offered this position think very carefully. If he accepts – extreme caution is advised.”
In addition, command centers in Tehran were completely destroyed, including Quds Force headquarters that were deliberately embedded in civilian buildings, as well as a military communications center disguised as a civilian activity.
Israel’s rationale in selecting these targets was to undermine the regime’s stability as part of the broader effort to eliminate the nuclear and missile programs.
The Iranian Response and the Israeli Home Front
Despite the operational successes, the campaign took a heavy toll on the Israeli home front. Iran responded by launching hundreds of UAVs and ballistic missiles toward Israel. According to a military official, by June 17 Iran had launched about 400 ballistic missiles, in addition to hundreds of UAVs. Israel’s air defense systems, with American assistance (the THAAD system and US Navy ships), intercepted most of the threats. Brigadier General Defrin noted that the naval and air defense systems managed to intercept all cruise missiles and UAVs before they reached Israel.
However, the defense systems are not hermetic. “We have always said there is no perfect active defense. There is never 100%,” a military official explained on June 14. During the first four days, 24 Israeli civilians were killed by missile impacts in various cities, and hundreds were wounded. The IDF Spokesperson emphasized the moral gap between the sides: “This is the face of the Iranian terror regime: While we are attacking military and nuclear capabilities designed to destroy the State of Israel, they are firing at population centers with the aim of harming civilians” (June 16). The Prime Minister praised the resilience of the Israeli public, comparing it to the “Blitz spirit” of the British people in World War II.
The Diplomatic and International Arena
In parallel with the military campaign, Israel conducted an extensive diplomatic campaign with the aim of providing a “diplomatic umbrella” for the IDF’s actions, as Foreign Minister Sa’ar defined it. Iran tried to mobilize the international community against Israel, but failed. “They initiated an emergency meeting at the UN Security Council… there – they heard positive statements regarding Israel and no result was produced,” Sa’ar reported on June 17. “The IAEA Board of Governors convened at Iran’s request… This discussion also ended with no outcome against Israel.” Sa’ar noted that the general attitude in the Western world towards the operation is positive, and is based on an understanding that the existential threat to Israel has implications for the security of the entire region, Europe, and the world order. The Trump administration in the US expressed public support for the operation, and actively assisted in Israel’s defense, while maintaining a position of “above the conflict” in order to preserve its status as a potential mediator.
Summary and Situation Assessment After Four Days
After four days of intensive fighting, Operation Rising Lion has created a series of highly significant strategic achievements that have severely damaged the head of the Shiite-Jihadist axis, Iran, and are expected to radiate across the entire Middle East, including on the rehabilitation efforts of the Iranian proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah. A severe blow to the nuclear core, including the elimination of scientists and damage to enrichment and conversion facilities; elimination of missile production plants and hundreds of launchers; elimination of the top of Iran’s security command; and achieving total air control over Tehran’s skies may even prepare the ground for a revolution against the regime (time will tell).
The campaign revealed the IDF’s exceptional operational and intelligence capabilities, but also the grave danger to which the Israeli home front was subjected by the entire Iranian missile program. While the immediate threat has been significantly reduced, officials stressed that the campaign is far from over. “Our work is not finished,” said a military official on June 15, “and we have a large bank of targets ahead of us.”
The first four days of the operation dramatically changed the rules of the game in the Middle East, and positioned Israel as a regional power that dismantled most of the capabilities of the Iranian octopus’s proxies, as well as the head of the octopus in Tehran. The strategic implications are expected to be extremely dramatic in favor of the State of Israel.
