According to the Iranian statements in recent days, it seems that an Iranian attack in response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran is expected to be significant and extensive, more so than the attack on April 14.
In our estimation, this attack will be a combined launch of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and UAVs from many sites in western Iran, with both the IRGC and the Iranian Army taking part. We also assess that most of the launches will be carried out from open areas near the underground sites using mobile launchers.
The number of launch shafts that exist in each underground base held by Iran is relatively limited and can limit the rate of fire and the scope of launches. On the other hand, the use of mobile launchers, which come out of the underground sites, allows greater flexibility and more significant firing ranges. We have marked on the attached map 12 potential launch areas from western Iran.
It is estimated that the attack will be carried out in coordination with the axis of Iranian proxies, with an emphasis on Hezbollah, which will respond to the assassination of Fuad Shakar.
