During the night (March 2 at 01:00), Hezbollah joined the war. According to the organization’s formal statement, “precision missiles” and a “swarm of UAVs” were launched at a military target south of Haifa, claiming this was in response to the elimination of Khamenei. In practice, several rockets and apparently several UAVs were launched and were intercepted.
In its statement, Hezbollah cited verses from Surah Al-Hajj in the Qur’an, verses (ayat) 39–40. Their meaning: God will support those who fight against those who have wronged them. In effect, this constitutes religious legitimization for going to war. It should be noted that on July 13, 2022, during his traditional speech marking the 2006 Lebanon War, Nasrallah used the same verses against the backdrop of disputes over territory in the border area with Israel in general, and in the context of the maritime border negotiations (which were underway at the time) in particular. Today, we know that this was a period during which Hezbollah was intensively preparing to carry out an invasion of the Galilee.
Amid the war against Iran and pressure from Tehran, Hezbollah stands between ideological loyalty to the Iranian axis and considerations of its survival as a Lebanese organization in Lebanon. After two days of war against Iran, Hezbollah chose ideological loyalty to the Islamic Republic of Iran over loyalty to the interests of the Lebanese state.
At this stage, the nature and form of the fighting Hezbollah will conduct against Israel are unclear. On February 26, we published an overview of Hezbollah’s current force structure and possible response scenarios by the organization against Israel in the event that Iran is attacked and Khamenei is eliminated. https://israel-alma.org/hezbollahs-potential-attack-options-us-iran-war-scenario/
As of the time of writing, the IDF has begun strikes in Beirut and southern Lebanon against Hezbollah targets, including strikes against senior figures. The identities of the senior figures and the results of the strike are not yet known, apart from unverified reports of the elimination of a senior Hezbollah figure—Mohammad Raad, head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc and apparently designated to become the organization’s Deputy Secretary-General. Evacuation notices have also been issued for dozens of villages in southern Lebanon. Israel should respond across the entire Lebanese arena; that is, any geographic area in Lebanon and any target or individual directly or indirectly connected to Hezbollah (military, semi-military, and “civilian”) is a legitimate target for attack.
