Alongside its military rehabilitation efforts, Hezbollah is working to strengthen its political arm and influence. Although parliamentary elections in Lebanon are expected to take place only in May 2026, Hezbollah is already preparing to enhance its political influence. Hezbollah is aware of the shift in the political balance and of its rivals’ attempts to isolate it and limit its power. Both Hezbollah and Amal (which traditionally run together in elections to fill the 27 Shiite seats in parliament) are already actively engaged in all aspects related to the elections.
Hezbollah will work to establish a parliamentary bloc. We assess that Hezbollah will attempt to create a “political proxy.” In addition to efforts to preserve, strengthen, and renew political alliances with parties representing other religions that were part of the March 8 camp (“Hezbollah coalition”), Hezbollah will attempt to create proxies in the form of independent parties and independent candidates. Outwardly, they will be presented in the election campaign as independents, but upon their election, they will act on behalf of Hezbollah. In the May 2022 elections, 26 seats were filled by parties and candidates who managed to be elected as independents. From among these independent candidates lies the potential for “proxies” on the one hand, but on the other hand, also the potential to “bite into” the allocation of seats to Shiites. The parliamentary elections are expected to serve as a key test of Hezbollah’s power in the internal Lebanese arena — even more so than the recent municipal elections. The success in forming a parliamentary bloc is a test of Hezbollah’s strength.
