IDF Strikes on Hezbollah Threats in South Lebanon – 13-22 June 2025

As the war against Iran goes on, Israel continues to strike Hezbollah operatives and targets in Lebanon. Over the past week, five operatives were eliminated, and launchers and weapons depots were targeted from the air in five areas in southern Lebanon and southern Beqaa. In Naqoura (western sector – southern Lebanon), a military compound belonging to the Radwan Unit was attacked from the sea. Hezbollah continues its efforts to recover. An escalation against Israel would severely damage its rehabilitation efforts.

On the other hand, it is very difficult to assess Hezbollah’s true intentions. It cannot be definitively stated that Hezbollah will not resume fighting against Israel in light of what is happening in Iran. It is highly likely that the Iranians are interested in Hezbollah joining the fighting and are exerting pressure on the organization, placing it in an operational, religious, and ideological dilemma.

Hezbollah is well aware of the social and political constraints and pressures within Lebanon against its participation in the fighting. These may also serve as an additional reason to the rehabilitation-focused stance for its current decision not to join the war. Despite the heavy military blow it has suffered, we assess that Hezbollah retains operational capability to activate its remaining firepower arrays (missiles, rockets, UAVs, anti-tank systems, etc.). Hezbollah could also initiate a limited and focused ground operation such as an infiltration or even deploy proxies.

We assess that religious and ideological considerations carry more weight for Hezbollah than internal Lebanese political and social considerations. If such a decision to join the fighting is made, it will likely be based on these religious and ideological factors.