On Thursday, January 9, 2025, the Lebanese parliament is expected to convene for the election of a president that could end the presidential crisis besieging Lebanon since 2022. On January 6, Amos Hochstein arrived in Lebanon to discuss the implementation of the ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel and to examine the progress of the election of the president of Lebanon as part of the growing international pressure to resolve the crisis. The crisis is expected to end, thus opening an opportunity to strengthen its political and economic stability.
The Presidential Void in Lebanon
Since President Michel Aoun’s term ended in October 2022, the Lebanese parliament has not been able to reach an agreement on the election of a new president due to power struggles between the various political camps. The main camps are divided between Hezbollah and its allies and its opponents: the March 8 camp, affiliated with Iran and the Assad regime, which represents Hezbollah, the Amal movement, and the Free Patriotic Movement, and the March 14 camp, which is considered more pro-Western and includes the Lebanese Forces Party, the Christian Kataeb Party, and other Sunni movements.
In addition to the differences of opinion between the camps that complicate the presidential election process, Hezbollah possesses veto power over significant political processes, including the election of a president. Lebanon’s unique political structure, based on sectarian division and the consensus system, underpins this ability, which lacks legal grounding.
In 2008, following the confrontation between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government forces, the government and Hezbollah signed an agreement wherein Hezbollah operatives would represent a third of the government. Lebanese law mandates that a two-thirds majority of ministers make significant government decisions, thereby granting Hezbollah and its allies a veto on critical decisions.
In the Lebanese Parliament, which has 128 members, a special two-thirds majority (86 MPs) is required to elect a president in the first round. This means that no party can elect a president without broad support beyond its political bloc. Therefore, even though Hezbollah and its allies have weakened in the last elections (2022) and currently hold only 61 seats in parliament, they still can block and thwart a candidate they dislike.
Moreover, if there is no regular majority in the following rounds (51% of the vote), at least two-thirds of the members are required to hold the election. Hezbollah and its allies exploit this mechanism by boycotting parliamentary meetings and paralyzing the entire process. This ability, which paralyzes the political system in Lebanon, allows Hezbollah to maintain its power, influence, and interests in Lebanon.
The President’s powers and the consequences of the presidential crisis
The President of the country must be a Maronite Christian, and he is the heads the Supreme Defense Council and is the supreme commander of the Lebanese Army and security forces.
The main power of the president lies in its unique legal authority to approve the composition of the new government, making it impossible to form a government without its signature. This authority grants the president significant influence over the selection of government officials and the management of the state. The last president, Michel Aoun, used this authority many times to prevent the establishment of governments that did not meet his interests.
In addition, the president has the authority to dismiss the prime minister, may raise any urgent matter before the Council of Ministers, and has the power to grant pardons.
Moreover, the president’s symbolic role is important and an indicator of the balance of power in the country. The camp that successfully appoints “his” president, or at least prevents his competitors from promoting their candidate, has the potential to shape Lebanon’s political agenda during the president’s six-year term.
The Presidential candidates
Western countries, led by the United States, have supported Joseph Khalil Aoun, thecommander of the Lebanese army, since 2017. Aoun is considered a relatively neutral figure in the Lebanese political arena. His image as a fighter against corruption, formed during his military service, contributed to his popularity among the Lebanese public and to the belief that he could contribute to the imparting of political and economic stability in the country.
Perceived as pro-Western, Western countries have high expectations for Joseph Aoun, believing he can collaborate with them to rebuild Lebanon, particularly after the war, and to weaken Hezbollah’s power. However, these expectations can become a major disappointment. Only recently, during his visit to Saudi Arabia, did Aoun state in connection with enforcing the cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel that he did not intend to confront Hezbollah.
Senior Hezbollah figures stated that they would not use their veto to prevent Aoun’s election. This statement may also indicate Aoun’s perception of Hezbollah, especially since during his command of the Lebanese army, Hezbollah managed to become a significant military force and build terrorist infrastructures in the heart of villages in south Lebanon without any restrictions or resistance. Read our full report: Joseph Aoun – Will He Be the Next President of Lebanon?
Suleiman Frangieh, a Maronite Christian politician, serves as the leader of the Al-Mutar movement, a Christian party in Lebanon. Suleiman is the son of Tony Frangieh, a prominent political leader and a central figure among the Maronites; he was also the head of the Al-Mutiny movement during the Lebanese Civil War. Suleiman held several positions in the Lebanese parliament and is known for his political proximity to former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah. These contacts give him support from Hezbollah’s March 8 camp.
Frangieh announced his withdrawal from the candidacy on January 8. According to all assessments, his withdrawal paves the way for Aoun’s election.
Samir Geagea is the leader of the Lebanese Christian Forces Party. He opposed the Syrian presence in Lebanon and was the only civil war leader to face trial and imprisonment for his wartime crimes. The Lebanese Parliament pardoned him in 2005, and shortly after, he resumed his leadership role in the Lebanese Forces Party. Read our full report: Samir Geagea and the Lebanese Forces Party – Hezbollah’s Lebanese Nemesis.
His candidacy for president in Lebanon is due to his political influence and his popularity among the Lebanese Christian public. While some view Geagea as a liberal alternative to Lebanon’s traditional political system, he also faces opposition from a rival political faction, particularly those who support Hezbollah.
Geagea is a prominent opponent of Hezbollah and the Iranian influence in Lebanon and is not afraid to speak out against Hezbollah publicly. He recently called for Hezbollah to disarm and accused Hezbollah of a crime against the Lebanese by leading Lebanon to the last war against Israel.
On January 5, Wafic Safa, Hezbollah’s liaison and coordination unit, declared that Hezbollah would veto Geagea’s candidacy for the presidency of Lebanon and accused him of wanting mass destruction and war.
Geagea will not become president. Hezbollah will not allow it to happen.
The consequences of not electing a president and continuing the crisis
Since October 2022, the Lebanese parliament has held several rounds of votes to elect a new president, all of which failed. This time around, the outcome of the crisis remains uncertain.
Continuing the presidential vacuum could delay critical economic reforms needed for international aid, exacerbating the economic crisis. These reforms are especially necessary for the rehabilitation of Lebanon after the war and for the reduction of Iran’s influence in Lebanon, which already appears to be an exclusive source of money for the reconstruction of Lebanon after the war.
After the war with Israel, the Lebanese public is exhausted from fighting. Continued instability in state institutions may deepen political and religious tensions and strengthen conflicts between the various groups in the country.
summary
The delay in the election of the president exacerbates the economic and social crisis in Lebanon, damages the public trust, and threatens Lebanon’s internal and regional stability.
It is important to note that periods of presidential vacuum in Lebanon are not new, but this time they present an opportunity. The Lebanese public and political leaders recognize the current importance of electing a president. Not only is Lebanon experiencing a severe economic crisis, but the economic and social conditions have also deteriorated following Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel. Israel may have the opportunity to further weaken Hezbollah and impede its future recovery. However, we strongly doubt the capabilities of the Lebanese president, even if his name is Joseph Aoun, to do so…
Hezbollah, at the present stage, prefers a president who does not confront him and allows him to grow back. Unlike Samir Geagea, Joseph Aoun refrains from publicly criticizing Hezbollah and shows no desire to challenge it, a trait that could potentially make him an accepted candidate also by Hezbollah (or more accurately, Hezbollah’s default). Hezbollah’s support for Aoun, or at least its failure to oppose his election, may help Hezbollah rebuild its image in Lebanon. Thus, creating an ostensibly pragmatic image that places Lebanon’s interests, particularly after the war, at the top of his priorities.
Will a new president for Lebanon finally be elected today? Will all sides in the Lebanese political arena (including the Christians among themselves) manage to overcome their differences? We shall wait and see…
