On the afternoon of September 20, a meeting chaired by Ibrahim Aqil tool place in the basement of a 7-story building in Dahiyeh, Beirut. Ibrahim Muhammad Aqil, aka Hajj Abdul Qader (born 1962), was one of the founders of Hezbollah’s military force. Aqil is a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council and, in his last position, served as head of the operations division.
The meeting with Aqil included 15 other senior commanders from the Radwan unit’s chain of command and operations system. Ahmed Mahmoud Wahbi, aka Abu Hussein Samir, the former commander of Radwan, was the most prominent among them. He returned to de facto command of the unit after the elimination of Wassam al-Tawil on January 11. He also served as head of the training array. Also present were five commanders of Radwan’s attack sectors: the commander of the coastal sector (Samer Abd al-Hali Halawi), the commander of the Qana sector (Abbas Sami Maslamani), the commander of the Hajir sector —Ramim Ridge (Abdullah Abbas Hijazi), the commander of the Al-Hayam sector (Muhammad Ahmad Reza), and the commander of the Har Dov sector (Hassan Hussein Machi).
Israel could not afford to miss this opportunity, and it did not. The building where the meeting took place was attacked from the air and all the participants, headed by Aqil, were eliminated.
In this capacity, Aqil was directly in charge of the Radwan unit. According to several reports, after the elimination of Fouad Shakar, Aqil in fact became the most senior military figure. Aqil was in reality in charge of the plan to “Conquest of Galilee” (a plan that Hezbollah planned to implement, but Hamas’ action on October 7 disrupted its plans). In addition, Aqil was responsible for Hezbollah’s combat engineering unit, the anti-tank array, the air defense unit, and more.
Aqil was responsible for the September 2019 anti-tank shooting attack in Avivim and the March 2023 IED attack at the Megiddo junction. The United States designated Aqil as wanted due to his direct involvement in harming American soldiers and civilians. Among other things, he was involved in the attack on the US Embassy in Beirut in 1983.
On July 4, prior to the elimination of Fouad Shakar (July 30—head of Hezbollah’s strategic divisions and the person designated as Hezbollah’s military chief), we published a position paper recommending the need to elevate the ranks of those eliminated, i.e., attack members of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council. The paper emphasizes two Jihad Council members: Ibrahim Aqil and Ali Karki. Aqil, head of the operations division and in charge of the Radwan unit, and Karaki, commander of the southern front and in charge of the geographic units (Badr, Nasser, and Aziz), directly responsible for Hezbollah’s action against Israel in southern Lebanon. As of today, the commander of the Badr unit – Abu Ali Racha, has not yet been eliminated.
We defined Fouad Shakar’s elimination as taking a calculated risk and leaping forward in the context of the eliminated rank. The Israeli preemptive attack, which preceded Hezbollah’s response to Shakar’s elimination, and the non-exceptional outcome of Hezbollah’s retaliation, significantly bolstered Israel’s confidence to the possibility of accomplishing similar eliminations in the future. Even if Israel did not carry out the Pager incident, its results contributed to this sense of security.
The elimination of Fouad Shakar achieved the quantum leap and in fact created a new standard as we recommended. The elimination of Ibrahim Aqil cemented the quantum leap and set the standard for continuing the elimination policy among Hezbollah’s senior Jihad Council military leadership (Hezbollah’s General Staff).
In our opinion, the continued elimination of the members of the Jihad Council is no longer considered a calculated risk but a necessity. The elimination of Ibrahim Aqil, beyond being Hezbollah’s senior military function, has symbolic consciousness-psychological significance, which is sometimes no less important than the de facto operational attack. However, it’s crucial to keep in mind that the elimination of senior officials can only serve as a supportive action. It is important and right, but in the end, it is a tactical effort, which usually has no strategic implications.
The elimination effort must continue at all times alongside the main effort, which is a real and strategic blow to Hezbollah’s main firing systems: the missile and rocket arsenal. As of this writing, Hezbollah’s strategic missile systems have not been damaged. Despite the fact that the IDF began emphasizing the preemptive attack on August 25 on attacking short-range tactical rocket arrays (up to 80 kilometers) in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah continues to conduct a fire policy indicating functional continuity from these arrays.
The elimination effort must continue at all times alongside the main effort, which is a genuine and strategic blow to Hezbollah’s main firing systems: the missile and rocket arsenal. Hezbollah’s strategic missile systems remain intact as of this writing. Despite the fact that since the preemptive attack on August 25, the IDF has begun emphasizing attacking short-range tactical rocket arrays (up to 80 kilometers) in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah continues to conduct a fire policy indicating functional continuity from these arrays.
Regardless of the strength and quality of Hezbollah’s future responses, we recommend continuing to attack the remaining members of the Jihad Council in accordance with the following priorities:
- Ali Karki in his capacity as commander of the Southern Front (his photo and other details regarding him do not appear in open sources).
- Talal Hamia, head of Unit 910, responsible for Hezbollah’s foreign operations. In the past, he served as Imad Mughniyeh’s deputy until the latter was eliminated in February 2008. He may also have served as Hezbollah’s chief intelligence officer.
Given the continuation of the situation above and as long as there is no other development in the fighting situation in the north, we recommend, from a preventive perspective, to take another leap forward in order to continue to exact a very high price from Hezbollah’s leadership hierarchy. This jump means striking members of Hezbollah’s Ashura Council—Hezbollah’s most senior general leadership operating under Hassan Nasrallah.
The strikes must be both operative and symbolic, and can be communicated through two members of the Shura Council:
Operationally – Hashem Safi Al-Din is Hezbollah’s most senior figure after Nasrallah. He serves as head of the Executive Council responsible for all Hezbollah’s civilian systems, which are an alternative to the formal authorities of the State of Lebanon. The Executive Council’s activities effectively facilitate Hezbollah’s military activity. It appears that Nasrallah also designated Safi al-Din as his successor. Al-Din was born in 1964 and has previously served as head of the Jihad Council (which currently does not have a designated person in charge). In addition to his current position, he is also a member of the Jihad Council and attends its meetings.
Symbolically – Naim Qassem, in his official capacity, is Nasrallah’s deputy. He served in a large number of positions throughout Hezbollah, including head of the Executive Council. He holds the highest level of responsibility towards the members of parliament and the parliamentary working council.
It appears that Hezbollah does not intend to stop the war of attrition it began against Israel on October 8, 2023. Hezbollah entered the war not because of Hamas’ Palestinian interests in the Gaza Strip but for its own interests, in order to build and strengthen the narrative as a leading organization within the framework of the Shiite axis “on the way to Jerusalem (Al-Quds).”
As of this writing (September 22), Hezbollah has begun to respond primarily with high-trajectory fire at targets in Israel. According to Hezbollah, it fired at the Ramat David Air Force base and Rafael facilities in Zevulun, north of Haifa. In fact, Hezbollah’s rocket fire extended into populated and unevacuated areas in the entire area north of Haifa, areas that have not received any attacks to date. The rocket fire consisted of several dozens of rockets.
According to Hezbollah’s statements, at this stage this is the first part of the response to the Pager and two-way radios attacks (September 17-18), which it attributes to Israel and even stated directly that Israel is responsible.
We expect Ibrahim Aqil’s funeral ceremonies to begin today (September 22) at 1600 hours. As far as Hezbollah is concerned, the response to the elimination has not yet begun, and it is unclear at this stage how Hezbollah will respond to Aqil’s death.
