Insights
- In the early morning hours yesterday (August 25) the IDF disrupted Hezbollah’s response to the killing of Fouad Shakar (July 30). According to our assessment, Hezbollah intended, in its original response that was disrupted, to carry out a combined bombardment attack against Israel: an intensive rocket and UAV strike on northern Israel (hundreds of launches, not thousands) as a diversion and intentionally engaging the Israeli defense systems, while, simultaneously, firing several accurate missiles or heavy rockets at security targets in central Israel. This, with the aim to fulfil Hezbollah’s equation: If Israel accurately hits a target in Beirut (Fouad Shakar in Dahiyeh), Hezbollah will accurately hit a target in Tel Aviv.
- According to local reports, the targets of Israel’s preemptive strike (August 25) were near 27 villages across southern Lebanon on both sides of the Litani river. This area essentially represents Hezbollah’s southern front. Hezbollah divides this region into the first defensive line (south of the Litani) and the second (north of the Litani). Many rockets’ launchers are deployed across dozens of launch sites in this geographic area. The location of the rockets’ launchers is determined by the type of weapon being launched. In this area, rockets and missiles with a range of up to 200 kilometers are deployed, according to our estimates. Some are positioned in open launch sites, between and near the villages, while others are underground, and camouflaged by dense vegetation. According to the information we have, there is mass underground infrastructure of strategic tunnels south of Jezzine. Some of the IDF attacks targeted this area. Nasrallah, in an attempt to establish a false narrative of victory, did not reflect the reality. The familiar motifs in Nasrallah’s speeches were also present in his most recent public statement: The glorification of the resistance, the emphasis on Hezbollah’s operational and military control in the northern arena, and the belittling of Israel’s capabilities and achievements.
- The preemptive strike allowed for the attack on launchers that were not necessarily intended for Hezbollah’s retaliatory strike, but rather on launchers that were on standby for continued fighting if needed.
- This week, the IDF continued its very intensive activity against anyone directly involved in military terrorist activity against Israel, and only this week 17 Hezbollah operatives and another Amal movement operative were eliminated.
- Accordingly, this week was particularly intense in terms of Hezbollah attacks against Israel: 93 attacks on the northern border, a very high number compared to the weekly average of 60 Hezbollah attacks. It is also possible that this was due to Hezbollah’s desire to exhaust and overload Israeli defense systems in order to weaken them ahead of its retaliatory attack on August 25.
- The effort to strike the Beqaa Valley should be systematically intensified, based on the working assumption that Hezbollah’s supply of weapons to southern Lebanon comes from the logistics home front in the Beqaa Valley, and that Hezbollah’s strategic systems are deployed in the Bekaa Valley (such as part of the aerial unit’s array of precision missiles and UAVs, some of which were launched into the center of the Israel as part of Hezbollah’s response to the killing of Fouad Shakar).
- During the IDF’s preemptive strike, no civilians were harmed. It was a targeted and precise attack on specific objectives.
- Hezbollah’s cognitive war at its peak: Nasrallah in his speech, after Hezbollah’s attempt to respond to the assassination of Fouad Shakar (August 25), tried with all his might to create and describe an alternative reality that is false to the real facts. As expected, Nasrallah tried to describe Hezbollah’s great success and glorify it (while uttering outright lies), in contrast to Israel’s great failure.
The Lebanese arena:
War data:
In Israel, the government evacuated 43 communities located up to five kilometers from the Lebanese border. A total of about 61,000 citizens. To them were added several thousand more who decided to evacuate independently.
It should be noted that some of the Israeli communities have not been fully evacuated and there is a civilian presence there (agriculture and industry).
The Israeli government has extended the evacuation period until 31 August 2024.
Hezbollah has caused the deaths of 25 Israeli civilians and 22 soldiers, a total of 47 people. This past week (August 19-26) two soldiers were killed and seven others were injured in the northern arena.
During the past week 93 attacks were carried out on the northern border, of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 86 attacks against Israel, utilizing high-trajectory fire (including Grad and Burkan rockets), anti-tank missiles, suicide UAVs and Surface-to-air missile.
There has been no claim of responsibility for 7 incidents, of these, 4 UAV infiltration or intercepted UAV incidents and 3 rocket launches toward the areas of Kiryat Shmona and Neot Mordechai.
Since the beginning of the war, 2,804 attacks have been carried out in the northern arena, the vast majority of which were carried out by Hezbollah.
Prominent launching and shooting incidents against Israel
(August 19) Hezbollah launched suicide UAVs into the Western Galilee, including to un-evacuated areas such as the city of Nahariya. One of the UAVs killed one soldier and wounded four others. According to Hezbollah, the attack was carried out in response to the assassination of Hussein Ibrahim Kasab (17.08), a commander in Radwan unit.
(August 20) Hezbollah fired about 55 Grad rockets and several suicide UAVs into the Golan Heights and 20 Grad rockets at the Cabri area in the Western Galilee. According to Hezbollah, the attacks were carried out in response to IDF attacks in the Beqaa Valley. In addition, Hezbollah fired about 40 Grad rockets at the area of Shomera and Matat. According to Hezbollah, the attacks were carried out in response to the IDF attack in the Dahiyeh, where four Hezbollah operatives were killed on August 19.
(August 21) Hezbollah fired about 50 Grad rockets into the Golan Heights and suicide UAVs into the Upper Galilee. According to Hezbollah, the attacks were carried out in response to additional IDF attacks in the Beqaa Valley.
(August 23) Hezbollah launched an AlMas anti-tank missile at Meron Air Base and about 100 rockets at Safed, the Western Galilee and the city of Kiryat Shmona. According to Hezbollah, in response to the IDF attacks in southern Lebanon (during the same day, 7 Hezbollah operatives were killed in IDF airstrikes in Lebanon).
(August 25, 5:15 a.m.) Hezbollah launches over 200 rockets and 20 suicide UAVs into the Western Galilee, Upper Galilee and Golan Heights. According to Hezbollah, this was the beginning of its response to the killing of Fouad Shakar in Beirut on July 30. For more information on the IDF’s attack and preventive attack, see the article – The IDF disrupted Hezbollah’s response to the killing of Fouad Shakar. At around 4:30 A.M., the IDF launched a preemptive attack to thwart a massive launch of missiles and rockets by Hezbollah toward northern and central Israel, thousands of missile launchers located and planted in southern Lebanon, more than 40 launching areas were attacked by about 100 IDF fighter jets. Later in the day, the IDF continued its preventive strikes to remove the threat in several areas in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah casualties
Over the past week, Hezbollah released a statement reporting 17 of its military operatives killed.
As of October 8, 2023, a total of 431 Hezbollah operatives have been killed. Most of the operatives killed live south of the Litani River (292 operatives killed, constituting 67% of all the operatives killed). Many Hezbollah operatives and their families live in southern Lebanon near the border with Israel. They operate in southern Lebanon as part of Hezbollah’s geographic units (Nasser/Aziz) and Hezbollah’s designated units (Radwan unit), while assimilating into the civilian population (human shield tactics).
This past week Amal and Fatah operatives were killed. According to reports in Lebanon, since the beginning of the war, 59 operatives of other organizations in Lebanon have been killed, including Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Amal movement, Jama’ah al-Salamiya (Al-Fajr) and Lebanese Resistance Brigades.
Eliminations of senior Hezbollah figures
Since October 8, 2023, 48 senior Hezbollah operatives were eliminated. The most senior of them, Fouad Shakar, a member of the Jihad Council, head of Hezbollah’s strategic systems. 44.7% of them, a total of 21, belonged to the geographic units (southern front) with an emphasis on the Nasser unit, including the unit’s commander – Haj Abu Taleb and Aziz unit commander Ahmad Naama Nasser. Approximately 29.8% of the Radwan unit, which amounts to 14 individuals, including the unit’s acting leader, Wassam al-Tawil were eliminated as well. The primary focus on the Radwan unit and geographical units was on removing sector leaders (similar to brigade commanders) and commanders in specialized arrays (such as rockets/anti-tanks, etc.).
In addition, 3 high-ranking operatives from Hezbollah’s air unit, 3 individuals from Hezbollah’s air defense system, a senior agent in Hezbollah’s weapons transfer operation from Syria to Lebanon, an operative in the engineering unit and a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council were eliminated. Out of the total number of operatives eliminated, 4 individuals, which is equivalent to 9.1%, were experts in the areas of research / development / manufacture of weapons, and combat support technologies.
Elimination attempts are critical and necessary. Regardless of the eliminations, Hezbollah has operational and command continuity. This endeavor cannot be the primary focus, but rather a concurrent and supplementary effort to the main focus, which is to cause significant harm to Hezbollah’s tactical firing systems and its military infrastructure on the southern front, as well as extensive damage to Hezbollah’s strategic fire systems and infrastructure in depth.
Prominent airstrikes in Lebanon
(August 19) During the night, the IDF carried out a series of attacks against Hezbollah targets in the Beqaa Valley, deep in Lebanon. The airstrikes were carried out around Tamnin a-Tahta (see locator and attached map), Sar’in and Nabi Chit. As seen in the many videos published, the strikes targeted rocket/missile depots.
The Beqaa Valley is Hezbollah’s logistical and operational home front, where strategic systems and infrastructures are deployed, including many weapons and ammunition depots. These warehouses also include rockets and long- and short-range missiles and air defense systems.
Despite the publication of Hezbollah’s strategic tunnel last week, in which Hezbollah appears to store weapons underground, many Hezbollah weapons are stored above ground and deployed throughout Lebanon, mainly in civilian areas. We assess that most of the weapons stored inside the tunnels are long-range missiles and rockets, such as Fateh-110 missiles, which can even be launched from within.
The attack considered relatively unusual, about 70 kilometers deep in Lebanon, comes in response to Hezbollah’s launch of suicide UAVs yesterday at Israel, killing one IDF soldier and wounding several others.
(August 20) During the night, the IDF carried out another series of attacks against Hezbollah targets in the Beqaa Valley, in the areas of Nabi Chit, Budai and Tarya. The airstrikes targeted weapons depots and a compound used by Hezbollah’s air defense system.
(August 21) The IDF killed Khalil al-Miqdah while he was driving in his car in the Mia refugee camp, near the ‘Ein al-Khilwa refugee camp in the Sidon region. Al-Maqdah, who was a senior member of Fatah’s Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, is the brother of Munir al-Maqdah, who is also a senior Fatah figure in Lebanon. In recent years, the al-Maqdah brothers, who lived in the ‘Ein al-Khilwa refugee camp, collaborated with Hezbollah and Iranian elements to smuggle money and advanced weapons into Judea and Samaria. Among the elements with which they collaborated were Unit 840 of the Quds Force (operating as part of the Syria 1800 Corps) and Branch 4000 of the IRGC’s intelligence apparatus.
Al-Maqdah’s elimination is unusual because it is the first time since the IDF began its attacks in Lebanon that a Fatah-linked element has been eliminated. The elimination also revealed once again the close cooperation between Palestinian elements in Lebanon and Iran. The objective is to smuggle advanced weapons that will improve the capabilities of the terrorist organizations in Judea and Samaria.
(August 23) In several IDF airstrikes in the areas of Tir Harfa, Miss al-Jabal, Itarun, Aita a-Zut and Tyre, seven Hezbollah operatives were eliminated, including key operatives in Hezbollah’s rocket and missile unit.
Hezbollah – General:
(August 23) Hezbollah’s education department organized the annual event for distributing school supplies in the city of Nabatiyeh. The event includes the distribution of stationery and a free library to borrow textbooks. The event was sponsored by Lebanon’s Minister of Labor, Dr. Mustafa Bayram.
(August 23) The resistance Action Front, in cooperation with the Islamic Health Authority, organized a free health day in the Barja area for residents of the Al-Kharub area, on the anniversary of the “victory of the 2006 war.” During health days initiated by Hezbollah from time to time in various villages, residents receive free health services, including vaccines and medicines.
(August 24) Lebanon marks the 40th anniversary of Imam Hussein’s death in Karbala. On this day, Shiites from everywhere come to visit Shia holy places. In Lebanon, it is customary to make pilgrimages to the grave of Sayyida Khola, daughter of Imam Hussein, in the city of Baalbek. Processions leave for the tomb from Beirut, South Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. The road leading to Sayyida Khola’s tomb was decorated along its entire length with religious statements, pictures of Hezbollah operatives killed in the war, and slogans emphasizing adherence to the holy sites and Al-Aqsa Mosque (“the ideology of Palestine”).
(August 24) Hezbollah continues its social activities and helps secure water for the residents of Sidon. Hezbollah supplied about 14,500 liters of fuel to the water pumping stations of the Southern Water Corporation. This is especially so in light of the frequent water outages on the service line that feeds many areas of Sidon and its neighbors. The delivery was supervised and supervised by Hezbollah in Ein al-Hilweh, Ali al-Zino, and Haj Ahmad al-Jubili, a member of the committee for relations in the Sidon sector.
This week we published the article “Hezbollah: Supplying fuel in southern Lebanon for civilian and military purposes.” The article presents a sliver of Hezbollah’s independent civilian apparatus, the state run by Hezbollah within Lebanon. Its objective is to “strengthen” the Shiite base that supports Hezbollah through independent and functioning civilian apparatuses, analogous to the Lebanese state apparatus (which are not functioning).
(August 25) Nasrallah’s speech – “Operation Arbaeen Day”
At the beginning of his speech, Nasrallah talks about marking the 40th anniversary of Hussein Ben Ali’s death and the passing of former Lebanon Prime Minister Salim al-Hoss.
Nasrallah, in an attempt to establish a false narrative of victory, is not reflecting reality. The familiar motifs in Nasrallah’s speeches were also present in this one: the glorification of the resistance, the emphasis on Hezbollah’s operational and military control in the northern arena, and the belittling of Israel’s and the IDF’s capabilities and achievements.
Nasrallah refers to the killing of Fouad Shakar in Beirut last month, noting that it was Israel that caused the escalation. Hezbollah declared its intention to respond in order to preserve the equation. The name given to the operation of Shakar’s elimination response is “Operation 40th Day,” because it was carried out to mark the fortieth anniversary of Hussein bin Ali’s death in Karbala.
The delay in responding to the assassination was for several reasons, according to Nasrallah. First, in order to make a decision whether to respond jointly with the entire resistance axis or whether each front will act independently. In the end, it was decided that Hezbollah would respond separately from the rest of the axis. Second, it is to provide an opportunity for negotiations between Israel and Hamas, since according to Nasrallah, their goal is to stop the war in Gaza.
The parameters set by Hezbollah for the nature of the response was that it would not target civilians or infrastructure, but rather a military target related to the assassination operation, such as an intelligence base or the air force, which would be deep inside Israel (the Tel Aviv area). According to Nasrallah, one of the targets chosen is Glilot base, an intelligence base of Unit 8200 located only one and a half kilometers from Tel Aviv. Another target chosen is the Israeli Air Force’s Ein Shemer airbase, located 75 km from Lebanon. UAVs were launched at these targets, which, according to Nasrallah, reached their destination.
During the operation, Nasrallah describes that Hezbollah also fired at military bases as a diversion and with the intention to engage the Israeli air defense systems, thus allowing the UAVs to reach their targets. According to him, during the operation, 300 Grad rockets and UAVs of various types and sizes were launched. For the first time, a UAV was also launched from the Bekaa Valley, and according to Nasrallah, despite the great distance, it managed to penetrate Israel.
Nasrallah tried to establish the narrative of victory of the resistance, as he does in every speech, and tries to minimize the IDF’s achievements in the preventive offensive. According to him, the chosen day to respond to the assassination is Sunday morning, the 40th day of Imam Hussein, after dawn prayers at 5:15 a.m. He added that none of the launch platforms or UAV sites were damaged before and after the operation, and the IDF did not thwart anything. All the rocket launchers attacked by Israel were not part of Hezbollah’s response. He also claimed that Hezbollah’s UAVs managed to penetrate deep into the Israel and reach their targets, but Israel concealed Hezbollah’s achievements. According to Nasrallah, Israel failed, and all the sites attacked were empty areas that had already been evacuated.
Nasrallah continues to note Hezbollah’s successes in closing Ben Gurion Airport and opening bomb shelters in central Israel. He also notes that Israel did not dare harm civilians in its preventive action, attacking only outside the villages, in light of the equation that Hezbollah strengthened. According to him, the resistance fulfilled its commitment to respond and carried it out successfully.
Nasrallah noted that they will monitor the success of the operation, and if they see that the result is satisfactory, they will decide that the response to the elimination of Shakar has been completed. If they see that this is not enough and that the response needs to be continued, they will do so at a later time.
According to Nasrallah, their attack could even benefit the Palestinian side in the negotiations, and is a message to Israel and the Americans that any hope of silencing the supporting fronts is futile, especially the Lebanese front. Lebanon is no longer a weak country That Israel could conquer it with a military band; the day will come when Hezbollah will be the one to conquer Israel with just a military band.
(August 25) After Nasrallah’s speech, celebrations were held for Hezbollah’s attack in the streets of Beirut.
In the video: Celebrations over Hezbollah’s attack in Beirut
Lebanon – General:
(August 22) The resistance to Hezbollah in Lebanon is carried out not only in talk and media interviews, but also in documentation of their activity, as is achieved in the attached video showing rockets being fired from a military zone very close to the village of Deir Mimas, which serves as a human shield for terrorist activity. This military zone of Hezbollah is numbered by us as Area No. 26. The attached video was filmed from inside the Christian village, most of whose population opposes Hezbollah. The person (a soldier in the Lebanon army) who posted the video was exposed by Hezbollah supporters and he was forced to release an apology video a few hours later.
(August 23) The commander of the Lebanon Army, General Joseph Aoun, met with the Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations of the France Army, General Thierry Burkhard. The meeting discussed ways to deepen cooperation between the armies of the two countries and discussed the general situation in Lebanon and the region and developments on the southern border.
(August 24) after Algeria announced the supply of 30,000 tons of fuel worth $18 million as a contribution to solve Lebanon’s electricity crisis, the transfer process began. However, it turns out that the specification of the fuel donated for the Lebanon is different from what is required by the Lebanese electric company, and therefore the shipment must be replaced with another shipment of gas oil through a public tender through the Public Procurement Authority.
The Syrian arena:
(August 23) According to local reports, in the evening several airstrikes were carried out at the military airport in Hama and other areas in central Syria. The targets were warehouses and fuel depots near the city of Hama, belonging to Syrian operatives working with Hezbollah. Additional attacks were carried out against military sites at a scientific research center in Jabal Ma’arin, south of Hama.
(August 24) CENTCOM announced the killing of a senior member of the religious organization Khras al-Din (Guardians of the Religion) affiliated with Al-Qaeda in an attack on his motorcycle south of Idlib in northern Syria.
Syria -General:
(August 19) The Iranian militias opened a military training course in Albukamal for about 95 volunteers who joined their ranks a few days ago. According to the report, the course takes place near the Al-Sika area, south of Albukamal, and is supervised by Iranian and Iraqi commanders. The course included instruction on the use of machine guns and RPG rocket launchers and infiltration operations across the Euphrates River. The volunteer operatives will belong to the “clan army” and will be transferred to the contact lines with the SDF (Kurdish forces) on the banks of the Euphrates River in the city of Albukamal and its rural areas.
(August 19) The Jordan Army announced that it had foiled the smuggling of drugs from Syria that were smuggled by a drone. On August 22, the Jordan Army reported that another drug smuggling operation from Syrian territory had been thwarted, this time by land.
(August 20) Abdullah Saleh al-Haris, director of Saudi Arabia affairs in Syria, said he was optimistic about the future of relations between Saudi Arabia and Syria and that they would soon return to what they were before 2011 and even better. On the sidelines of the celebration held by the Saudi embassy in Damascus on the occasion of World Humanitarian Day, Al-Haris noted that “relations Syria-Saudi Arabia are at their peak and will develop for the better.”
(August 20) Iranian militias opened a new illegal border crossing called Akashat between Syria and Iraq in the Albukamal area. According to the report, the militias transferred about 50 Iraqi and Afghan nationalities to the area of Akashat, south of Albukamal, and began transferring weapons from Iraq through it. Iranian militias control most of the crossings between Syria and Iraq.
Shiite Axis – General
The last official report by the US Central Command regarding attacks on American bases in Iraq and Syria by Shiite militias was published on February 20. According to various reports, the attacks on the American bases stopped due to direct Iranian instructions to the Shiite militias, against the background of secret agreements between Iran and the United States.
According to several local indications, from February 20 to date, 14 attacks have been carried out against U.S. bases, for which no organization has claimed responsibility. In our assessment, there were indeed attacks. U.S. Central Command did not make a public statement, as it did before Feb. 20. A small number of them were confirmed according to “American sources.”
(August 13) the Pentagon formally confirmed, for the first time since February 20, that a suicide UAV struck a U.S. base in eastern Syria on August 10, wounding several soldiers.
During the past week (August 19-26), the Islamic resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for two attacks against Israel against vital targets in Eilat and Haifa using UAVs. No further indications were reported.
Yemen – Houthi-land:
During the past week, coalition forces managed to strike an anti-aircraft radar installation, three UAVs over the red sea and over Houthi territory and a and a missile system in Houthi territory, which posed an immediate threat to freedom of movement in international waters.
(August 22) the Houthis carried out air strikes against 2 cargo ships – SOUNION AND SW NORTH WIND. According to the Houthis, the ships were intended to reach Israeli ports.
In the video: Documentation released by Houthi forces of the attack on the Greek ship SOUNION
Since October 2023, there have been 195 Houthi strikes against Israel, the United States and other targets. According to various statements made by Houthi leaders, they intend to retaliate and take revenge “by means of a painful attack” for the Israeli attack on the port of Hodeida.
