Insights – May 2024
- Hezbollah is exploiting the current campaign to learn the IDF’s offensive and defensive capabilities. In addition, to learn its capabilities relative to the IDF’s capabilities. In this way, Hezbollah can learn and prepare for the extensive campaign that will come. At the same time, Hezbollah strikes targets gaining time as part of the war of attrition. As the conflict continues, we will be exposed to Hezbollah’s more sophisticated capabilities.
- Hezbollah is taking a calculated risk. The intensity of its responses increases the potential for escalation and a flare-up for full-scale war with Israel. But that may be what it wants in the end…
- Hezbollah’s psychological cognitive war plays a significant part in its battle against Israel. Hezbollah takes great care to document its successes in the war, these videos, and pictures it produces are intended for the Israeli public, as part of the psychological war, and for the Lebanese public, as part of strengthening its narrative to maintain its status as the “defender of Lebanon,” to whom it presents its high capabilities.
- The significant upward trend in Hezbollah’s use of UAVs and the lethality of their attacks demonstrates the difficulty in dealing with such weapons. The difficulty stems from the problematic early detection ability, thus influencing interception capabilities on the one hand, and Hezbollah’s methods of operation on the other. The methods of operation include activity towards identifying weaknesses in the Israeli defense system, the deployment of many ready-made camouflaged launch sites, and the manner of piloting the UAV to the target.
- We identify two axes in the IDF’s efforts for targeted eliminations: first, the elimination of military commanders operating Hezbollah’s military force in southern Lebanon. The second is the elimination of professional knowledge centers that build and develop Hezbollah’s military power in southern Lebanon.
The Lebanese arena:
War data:
In Israel, the government evacuated 43 communities located up to five kilometers from the Lebanese border. A total of about 61,000 citizens. To them were added several thousand more who decided to evacuate independently.
It should be noted that not all Israeli communities have been totally evacuated, and there is still a civilian presence. This is because these communities rely on tourism and agriculture. Farmers come to work on the land, in the orchards, tending to cow and goat herds. Furthermore, some of the communities’ industrial plants are still operational and employ workers from non-evacuated areas. In addition, some of the evacuees returned independently.
The Israeli government has extended the evacuation period until the summer of 2024 (July/August 2024).
Hezbollah has caused the death of 8 Israeli civilians and one agricultural worker with foreign citizenship so far. A total of 9 civilians were killed.
Over the previous week, 83 attacks were carried out along the northern border. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 72 of these strikes, which included high-trajectory missiles (including Grad, Falaq, and Burkan), anti-tank missiles, and suicide UAVs.
The Islamic resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for two UAV strikes on Israel’s northern arena, aimed at the Haifa port and a military base in the Golan Heights.
No responsibility was claimed for 9 incidents, all UAV infiltrations.
Prominent launching and shooting incidents against Israel:
(May 20) Hezbollah fired heavy Burkan rockets at the Kiryat Shmona area. One soldier was wounded.
(May 22) Hezbollah fired high-trajectory and anti-tank missiles at the communities of Avivim and Kfar Giladi.
(May 22) Hezbollah launches a suicide UAV toward the Beit Hillel region.
(May 23) Hezbollah fired dozens of Grad rockets at communities in the Upper Galilee. Hezbollah claims to have targeted a military base in retaliation for the killing of its military operative in southern Lebanon.
(May 23) Hezbollah fired Falaq rockets at the Beit Hillel area. According to Hezbollah, the rockets were aimed towards military bases. Numerous hits were identified in civilian areas that also caused fires.
(May 23) Hezbollah fired anti-tank missiles at the villages of Ibn Menachem and Matula.
(May 24) Hezbollah launched a suicide UAV near Kiryat Shmona. It claimed it was in retaliation for the killing of his military operative in southern Lebanon.
(May 24) Hezbollah fired high-trajectory and anti-tank missiles at the communities of Margaliot and Manara.
(May 24) Hezbollah fired Burkan rockets toward the Malkiya area and Falaq rockets toward the Dovev area, Hezbollah claimed the rockets were aimed toward military bases, but strikes were identified inside Dovev, causing extensive damage.
(May 25) Hezbollah fired rockets and anti-tank missiles at the communities of Manara, Metula, and Shtula. According to Hezbollah, these rockets were fired in response to IDF attacks in Lebanon.
(May 26) Hezbollah launched anti-tank missiles at the communities Avivim, Margaliot, and Snir. According to Hezbollah in response to IDF attacks in Lebanon.
(May 26) Hezbollah launched dozens of Grad and Falaq rockets at the city of Kiryat Shmona. According to Hezbollah in response to IDF attacks in Lebanon.
(May 26) Hezbollah launched Grad rockets toward the area of the community of Yiftah. According to Hezbollah, the rockets were aimed toward a military base, in response to IDF attacks in Lebanon, but hit in the civilian area causing a fire.
Hezbollah casualties:
Over the past week, statements were released reporting 18 Hezbollah military operative killed.
As of October 8, 2023, a total of 322 Hezbollah operatives have been killed. Most of the operatives killed live south of the Litani River (211 operatives killed, constituting 65% of all the operatives killed). Many Hezbollah operatives and their families live in southern Lebanon near the border with Israel. They operate in southern Lebanon as part of Hezbollah’s geographic units (Nasser/Aziz) and Hezbollah’s designated units (Radwan unit), while assimilating into the civilian population (human shield tactics).
Prominent airstrikes in Lebanon
(May 20) An attack at the entrance to Al-Mansouri, south of Tyre, killing Qasim Afif Saqlawi, commander of Hezbollah’s rocket and missile array in Hezbollah’s coastal sector (on the southern front). Saqlawi was responsible for planning and executing rocket and anti-tank missile launches against Israel from the Western sector. He was born in 1987 in Deir Kannon.
(May 23) There was an airstrike on a vehicle in the morning near the village of Dajjal, south of Nabatiyeh, killing Muhammad Ali Nasser Faran, responsible for Hezbollah’s infrastructure for developing and manufacturing weapons. By profession, was a physics teacher at a high school in Nabatiya.
(May 26) The IDF carried out several strikes in southern Lebanon in Naqoura, Houla, Ayta ash-Shab, and Beit Jbeil, resulting in the killing of 7 Hezbollah Terrorists.
Hezbollah – General:
(May 23) A Hezbollah campaign in the city of Nabatiyeh and villages in the area included hanging huge posters throughout the city, including pictures of Iranian President Raisi, Foreign Minister Abdollahian, and others killed in the helicopter crash in East Azerbaijan Province.
(May 24) Hezbollah held a condolence event for the death of Iranian President Raisi at the Abbas al-Musawi grave site in the town of Nabi Chit. As part of the event, Iranian cultural advisor Kamil Bagrzadeh gave a speech.
(May 24) Nasrallah’s speech at a tribute ceremony held to mark the deaths of Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, and the other helicopter accident fatalities.
Nasrallah stresses that the recognition of a Palestinian state by various countries is one of the achievements of the Al-Aqsa flood (Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel), and what followed it. In other words, what led to this success, which is considered a strategic failure for Israel, is war, not political negotiations.
A second achievement of the war, according to Nasrallah, is the demonstrations around the world on behalf of the Palestinians, especially in Western countries and universities abroad. He said that what motivates people to support Gaza is “human emotion” caused by the videos from Gaza on social media. Nasrallah thanked professors and students all over the world.
Another achievement of the war and the strength of the resistance is that Israel is facing criminal prosecution against Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Galant.
Both in this speech and in all his previous speeches in recent months, Nasrallah continues to present the victory of the resistance and Israel’s failure. He uses, among other things, statements by politicians and senior Israeli officials. Nasrallah strengthens the path of resistance through war, which has led to these achievements.
In response to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s statement about Israel’s surprising plans for a war with Hezbollah, Nasrallah said that on October 7 it was Israel that was surprised and that on October 8 it was surprised again by Hezbollah’s opening of another front. Nasrallah also said that Israel should expect more surprises from the resistance.
(May 25) Lebanon, especially among Hezbollah supporters, celebrated May 25 to mark the anniversary of the IDF’s withdrawal from Lebanon. This day has become a national holiday in which public institutions and schools do not operate, and Hezbollah and other organizations hold festive events in various parts of Lebanon. This year, due to mourning the deaths of Iran’s president, Nasrallah announced that Hezbollah would cancel the festive events he had planned for that day.
(May 25) Hezbollah reported that Nasrallah’s mother, Allawiya Saida, died after a long battle with a disease.
Lebanon – General:
(May 21) A UNIFIL vehicle was stopped by locals, around Beirut’s southern suburbs, who claimed they are not allowed in these areas. This is not the first incident that proves that UNIFIL’s activity in Lebanon is very limited.
(May 21) The Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar reported that 52% of all births in Lebanon were from Syrian refugees and that 60% of these births were unknown to the authorities. In other words, 1 in every 3 births in Lebanon is of a Syrian refugee and is not reported to the authorities. According to Lebanese law, anyone born on Lebanese soil who can prove that he has no parents can receive citizenship. Syrian refugees can exploit this situation to their advantage, and through bribes, they can obtain Lebanese citizenship. This news comes against the backdrop of tensions between Lebanese citizens and Syrian refugees.
(May 21) Following a fire that broke out in a truck in the town of Batroun, north of Beirut, 304 pistols were found smuggled inside.
(May 22) Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Parliament of Lebanon and the head of the Amal movement along with the Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdallah Rashid Bou Habib met with Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, in Teheran to give their condolences over the death of the Iranian President Raisi and the foreign minister Abdollahian and other officials killed in the helicopter accident.
The Syrian Arena:
(May 20) According to local reports, a compound that used to be a school and now serves as a security compound with a Hezbollah presence was attacked on the outskirts of the town of Al-Qusayr. In our assessment, the compound served as a kind of way station used to accommodate the entry of weapons into Lebanon using civilian vehicles through the smuggling routes toward Hosh al-Sayyid Ali and Qasr.
The town of Qusayr is reached from the city of Homs (Route 4), which is one of the geographical anchors of the Iranian corridor in Syria. The Syrian town of Qusayr and the geographical area west of it towards Hush al-Sayyid Ali and the Lebanese town of Qasr are a geographical area into which some of the land entry routes of the Iranian corridor to Lebanon converge. Hezbollah controls this area well. In addition to arms transfers, the region is recognized as a major hub for smuggling of many kinds: civilian goods, drugs, fuel, etc. from and to Lebanon.
(May 23) Reports of an attack on a car and truck belonging to Hezbollah while driving in the area of the city of Qusayr in Syria, killing three operatives.
Syria – General:
(May 20-21) Jordanian customs announced that it had foiled the smuggling of 800,000 Captagon pills at the Jaber border crossing between Jordan and Syria. In another incident, the Syrian customs announced that it had also foiled the smuggling of 800,000 pills in Qalamoun, in the Damascus countryside, smuggled from the Lebanese border. The Syrian regime and Hezbollah run a network of drug smuggling from Syria to Jordan and the Arab Gulf region, from which they earn billions of dollars a year.
See our report on the drug industry in southern Syria
Shiite Axis – General:
(May 25) A senior official in Iraqi Hezbollah Kata’ib told the Al-Akhbar newspaper that the organization had begun to reconsider its agreement with the Iraqi government to suspend its attacks against the United States. According to the report, the agreement included stopping or suspending the attacks against US military bases in Syria and Iraq and intensifying the attacks against Israel. This is the first report that allegedly confirms the existence of an agreement between the Shiite militias in Iraq and the Iraqi government regarding the suspension of attacks against US forces.
The last attack on US bases in Iraq and Syria, officially reported by US Central Command, took place on February 20. According to various reports, the attacks on the American bases stopped due to direct Iranian instructions to the Shiite militias, against the background of secret agreements between Iran and the United States.
Since then, according to several local indications, several airstrikes have been carried out against American bases in northeastern Syria. Although we believe that there were indeed airstrikes, the US Central Command did not confirm them in a public publication as it did before February 20.
This week (May 20-27) the Islamic resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for eight attacks against Israel four of them targets in the northern arena. Five suspicious aerial targets on their way to Israel from the east were reportedly intercepted.
Yemen – Houthi-land:
During the past week, coalition forces managed to intercept four Houthi UAVs over Houthi territory as well as a cruise missile that was ready to be launched.
During the past week, the Houthis carried out three attacks in which they launched ballistic missiles at ships in the Red Sea, no injuries or damage were reported. In addition, the Houthis succeeded in intercepting another American UAV using a locally made surface-to-air missile. According to the Houthis, since the beginning of the war, they have managed to shoot down five such UAVs.
(May 23) Ansar Allah leader Saeed Abdul-Malik Al-Houthi said that one of the attacks carried out last week targeted a ship that violated the Houthis embargo and entered Israeli ports. This is part of the fourth phase of their attacks against Israel. According to him, their attacks have significant economic effects on America and Britain, causing higher prices and high shipping costs, and this is the price the US and Britain are paying for standing with Israel.
Since October 2023, there have been 153 Houthi shooting incidents.
