It is difficult to assess how long the current confrontation with Iran will continue and at what level of intensity. Theoretically, the current situation could persist until the end of President Trump’s term in January 2029. Conversely, there is also the possibility that the two sides will reach certain understandings that could lead to a reduction in tensions.
At the time of writing, the United States appears to be preparing for the possibility of another military campaign against Iran in the immediate future. Such a campaign, if launched, could last anywhere from several days to several weeks. However, at this stage, it is impossible to determine whether such a campaign will actually take place.
In our assessment, as long as another military campaign against Iran does not materialize, the likelihood of Hezbollah initiating a renewed full-scale confrontation with Israel remains relatively low.
Hezbollah’s primary interest at present is to avoid another large-scale military confrontation with Israel and continue its military and organizational reconstruction efforts.
According to several reports, there currently appear to be disagreements within Hezbollah over whether to join a military campaign against Iran, should one be launched.
In our assessment, certain elements within Hezbollah’s military leadership support joining such a campaign. In addition, there may be “rogue” military elements within Hezbollah who maintain direct ties with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and could act independently.
Hezbollah’s participation in such a campaign would not necessarily involve immediately launching an all-out war against Israel. The organization might initially opt for limited military operations against Israel and/or “special operations” designed to maintain plausible deniability, while attempting to manage the levels of escalation and avoid a broader confrontation. Nevertheless, even such activities could rapidly escalate into a significant confrontation, particularly given the current security environment and the anticipated Israeli response.
If the United States renews its military campaign against Iran, it is reasonable to assume that the IRGC, which currently wields considerable influence within Hezbollah, would pressure the organization to join the fighting against Israel. In other words, the decision on whether to enter the war may not rest entirely with Hezbollah.
At the same time, the possibility remains that Hezbollah could decide at any given moment to carry out military operations against Israel based on internal, organizational, or political considerations.
