The Northern Arena and the Shiite Axis – Weekly Review of Events and Key Data (13 -19 Jan.)

The Lebanese Arena

IDF Activity in Lebanon:

January 16 – In Lebanon, the IDF uncovered an underground shaft containing advanced weapons beneath the home of a civilian family near a central UN base

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are persistently removing threats and combating Hezbollah’s terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon. As part of this activity, the forces have conducted precise operations and raids on terrorist buildings and infrastructures in both built-up areas and complex areas where Hezbollah operates, all while upholding the understandings between Israel and Lebanon. During the 11th Brigade forces’ activity, they discovered an underground shaft beneath a civilian family’s home near a central UN base in the area, which contained a significant amount of advanced combat equipment. The 11th Brigade forces destroyed all the equipment without causing any harm to the UN base. 

Above: The underground shaft found near one of the UN bases in western Lebanon

Hezbollah – General:

January 18 – Highlights from Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem’s speech.

On Saturday, in his first statement since the agreement was signed last Wednesday, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem congratulated the Palestinians on the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, saying that it attests to the steadfastness of the resistance to Israel,.

“We congratulate the Palestinian people and their resistance on this agreement, which shows the steadfastness of the resistance,” he said. He noted that “this agreement, which has not changed from what was proposed in May 2024, indicates that the resistance took what it wanted, and the Israeli enemy could not achieve what it wanted.”  The confrontation with Hezbollah in Lebanon contributed to support for Gaza, and the youth of the resistance stood as an impenetrable barrier to progress on the front lines in a legendary conflict, as did Hezbollah and the opponents who interfered with Israel’s goal of ending the resistance in Lebanon, which came out with its head held high,” he said.

Referring to the agreement between Israel and Lebanon, he said: “We are patient with the violations in order to give a chance to the Lebanese state responsible for this agreement and with it the international sponsors, but I call on you not to test our patience and I call on the Lebanese state to be firm in the face of the violations that have exceeded hundreds and this matter cannot continue.”

January 18 – A meeting between Hezbollah and the Hamas delegation in the Bekaa Valley.

The Hamas delegation headed by Dr. Ahmad Abd al-Hadi, the leader of the movement in Lebanon, visited Hezbollah headquarters in the Beqaa where they were welcomed by Hezbollah leader Haj Hussein al-Nmar. The delegation welcomed the victory of the Islamic resistance in Lebanon and the “steadfastness of the opponents against the Zionist enemy and its allies, led by the United States of America, which is a resounding victory against the enemies and capabilities facing the resistance, despite the great sacrifices made by Hezbollah and the mujahideen, which prevented the enemy from achieving its goals to eliminate the Islamic resistance.”

Above: A meeting of the Hamas and Hezbollah delegation at the organization’s headquarters in the Bekaa Valley region of Lebanon.

January 14 – The Amal Movement and Hezbollah held a joint meeting to discuss municipal matters.

The Amal Movement and Hezbollah’s Municipal Labor Department held a joint meeting to promote municipal affairs at the Amal Movement building, with the participation of senior officials from both parties. The participants emphasized that the first joint meeting of the year is unusual, especially when it comes after the war between Israel and Lebanon. Those present noted: “If it were not for the martyr’s resistance on the front and the steadfastness of the people, the war would not have stopped.” They also called at this stage for cohesion, cooperation and integration between the duo as one body. For his part, Muhammad Bashir, head of Hezbollah’s municipal work department, stressed that the joint meeting reflects the degree of cohesion of the two groups (the Amal Movement – Hezbollah), and explained that after the election of a new president for Lebanon and the formation of the new government, there may be municipal and optional elections next May. He confirmed that this right will be achieved through unified regulations with the Amal Movement in accordance with the joint agreement signed between the two leaderships.

January 19 – The Test of The Israeli-Hezbollah Ceasefire: Areas South of The Litani Where the IDF Did not Maneuver

By: Dana Polak

Next week, on January 26, 60 days will have passed since the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah was signed, but its full implementation is still in question. The actual test of the agreement will be the Lebanese army’s activity in areas south of the Litani River, where the IDF did not maneuver or operate on the ground. In these areas, a large number of weapons and terrorist infrastructure belonging to Hezbollah remain unaddressed. Now, the responsibility for dealing with these infrastructures, dismantling them, and preventing their rehabilitation rests with the Lebanese army. Will the Lebanese army fulfill its mission, having previously failed in the framework of Resolution 1701?

Read our full article.

Civilian Activity – Reconstruction of Lebanon

January 16 – The US administration should pressure the Lebanese state to close the bank of the Hezbollah state.

By: Sarit Zehavi and Yaakov Lapin

The Al-Qard Al-Hassan Financial Association, which operates as Hezbollah’s de facto bank, poses a direct challenge to Lebanese sovereignty and international stability. This financial institution supports the parallel economy led by Hezbollah, finances terrorist activities, and deepens its influence on the Shiite community in Lebanon. In light of Israel’s recent airstrikes against Al-Qard al-Hassan’s branches, the international community should take advantage of the momentum and exert pressure on the Lebanese government to dismantle the bank. Inaction on the part of the Lebanese government should lead to sanctions on Lebanon, while emphasizing that the Lebanese state cannot allow the existence of such a body without consequences.

To continue reading our full article.

January 15 – The compensation payments in the Bekaa Valley are almost complete.

Hezbollah’s Construction Jihad Division, which is responsible for rehabilitating the damage and paying compensation to the victims after the war, published a video in which it noted that the department had almost completed compensation payments in the western Bekaa, and as of the time of publication of the video, it stood at 95 percent.

In the article, you can see representatives of the division wearing yellow vests, with Hezbollah flags in the background, signing checks for the victims, and some giving cash through the organization’s bank, Qard al-Hassan.

https://www.alahednews.com.lb/article.php?id=78348&cid=113

Lebanon – General:

January 17 – French President Emmanuel Macron visits Beirut.

French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Beirut, four years after his last visit to Lebanon, and made many promises of support in order to keep in pace with the development of the new phase of the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel and the completion of the election of President Aoun. French President Emmanuel Macron said his country would support Lebanon’s goal of preserving its sovereignty and defending its territory from interference and aggression.

At the conclusion of their summit at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of the capital Beirut, Macron made his remarks during a press conference with his Lebanese counterpart Joseph Aoun. Macron turned to Aoun and said, “We will support your goal of preserving your sovereignty and defending Lebanon from any interference and aggression.” “Lebanon’s sovereignty over all of its territory is a condition for maintaining the ceasefire and distancing the country from external interference,” he said. He went on saying  that Aoun’s election as president ends the political vacuum and places Lebanon “on the right path to recovery,” emphasizing the urgent formation of a new government. Macron promised that France would continue to support Lebanon in order to apply its sovereignty over its entire territory, stressing the need “for the Israeli army to withdraw completely and for weapons in Lebanon to be limited to the hands of the army only.” Macron also referred to the need to strengthen the work of the UN peacekeeping force UNIFIL, noting that UN Secretary-General António Guterres discussed these efforts in the border city of Naqoura. Macron added, “We will work together with you to demarcate the border along the Blue Line” separating Lebanon and Israel.

January 17 – UN Secretary-General António Guterres visits Lebanon and UNIFIL headquarters in the southern border town of Naqoura.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visited Beirut for a three-day “Solidarity” visit, expressing support for Lebanon and its people, while emphasizing UN support for all Lebanese sectors. Guterres, during his meeting with the Minister of Foreign Affairs and immigrants, Abdallah Bou Habib, at the Beirut airport stressed, that “the United Nations will support with all its capabilities in all Lebanese sectors, so that Lebanon will return to a country of peace, beauty and prosperity in the region, and every effort will be made to allow the Lebanese state to achieve economic recovery.”

Guterres also visited UNIFIL’s headquarters in Naqoura and addressed the organization’s commander, General Araldo Lazaro, and the leadership of the delegation, saying: “It is a great honor to be with you after one of the most challenging times imaginable. I told the world that all of you are not only guarding the Blue Line in Lebanon, but on the front line for peace,” he said.

Guterres’ remarks on Israel: “The continued occupation by the Israeli army in UNIFIL’s area of activity and the conduct of military operations inside Lebanese territory constitute a violation of Resolution 1701 and constitute a constant danger to your security. It has to stop.”

He added: “UNIFIL has uncovered more than 100 weapons depots of Hezbollah or other armed groups since November 27. The presence of militants and assets and weapons that do not belong to the Lebanese government or UNIFIL between the Blue Line and the Litani River constitutes a flagrant violation of Resolution 1701 and destabilizes Lebanon. I will repeat these points in my meetings in Beirut as well. The Lebanese Armed Forces, which are the only guarantee of Lebanon’s security, are deployed in larger numbers in southern Lebanon, including with the support of UNIFIL and members of the mechanism established as part of the cessation of hostilities.”

The Syrian Arena:

The IDF’s Activity in Syria

The IDF Spokesperson published a summary of the activities of the IDF forces that operated in the Syrian Hermon area in recent weeks, as part of this mission, the forces located and confiscated more than 3,300 items of military weapons and equipment, including Syrian army tanks, arms, anti-aircraft RPGs, shells, mortars and mortar shells, observation devices, and other weapons. It was noted: “To date, more than 170,000 items of military weapons and equipment have been confiscated by IDF forces and the unit for the evacuation of armaments from all combat zones – the Gaza Strip, Lebanon and Syria.”

January 17 – The thwarting of smuggled weapons from Syria to Lebanon

The Interior Ministry of the new Syrian government announced on Friday that it had succeeded in thwarting an attempt to smuggle weapons and missiles into Lebanon. According to the ministry’s announcement, they had managed to seize weapons and rockets that were on their way from Syria to Lebanon through illegal crossings.

A series of official diplomatic visits to Syria in the past week:

Above: Ahmad al-Shara greets Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister Sheikh Muhammad bin ‘Abd a-Rahman al-Thani in Damascus

January 15 – A delegation from the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) arrives in Syria.

A delegation from the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights met on Wednesday in Damascus with the leader of the new Syrian government, Ahmed al-Shara. The UN delegation was headed by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, who arrived in Damascus on Tuesday for the first visit of its kind in the country’s history, after the ousted regime banned the entry of human rights organizations and senior UN officials into the country.

January 16 – The visit of the Prime Minister of Qatar to Damascus.

Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abd Al-Rahman Al-Thani arrived in the Syrian capital Damascus on Thursday to meet with the leader of the new Syrian government, Ahmed al-Shara (Abu Muhammad al-Julani). The Qatari prime minister held extensive talks with Al-Shara, according to the Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman, who stressed that “the visit comes as a confirmation of the firm position of the State of Qatar in support of the Brotherhood in Syria.”

Two days before al-Khelaifi’s visit to Damascus, Doha reopened its embassy in Damascus hoisting the Qatari flag, after closing it in July 2011.

January 16 – The Spanish Foreign Minister visits Damascus.

The leader of the new Syrian government, Ahmed al-Shara, met on Thursday with Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares, who arrived in Damascus from Lebanon. The official SANA news agency reported that al-Shara received a delegation from the Kingdom of Spain, headed by Foreign Minister Jose, in Damascus and is coming as part of a series of Arab and regional international delegations to understand the Syrian government’s vision.

January 17 – Visit of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan.

The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Karim Ahmed Khan, met with Ahmed al-Shara on Friday. A statement from Khan’s office said he had “traveled to Damascus at the invitation of the Syrian transitional government” to see how it “can offer its partnership to support the efforts of Syrian authorities to account for crimes committed in the country.” The statement expressed Khan’s gratitude for the open and constructive discussions during his visit, which led to the establishment of follow-up procedures. The new authorities vowed to bring justice to the victims of the atrocities committed under Assad’s rule, emphasizing that they would not pardon those involved in the “torture of detainees” in Syrian prisons. Instead, they would pursue them and demand that the countries they fled extradite these criminals to justice.

January 17 – CENTCOM commander visits the Middle East.

The commander of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), General Michael Kurla, visited the Kurdish areas of Syria and met with US military commanders and senior figures in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to assess the campaign to “defeat ISIS.” CENTCOM reported that General Kurla’s visit to Syria concluded an eight-day tour that included nine destinations: Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the US aircraft carrier “Harry S. Truman” in the Red Sea, in addition to Egypt, Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan and Israel. In Syria, CENTCOM stated that General Kurla “met with U.S. military and armed forces commanders, as well as U.S. partners in reference to the SDF, adding that the purpose of the visit is to “get an assessment of the ongoing campaign against the Islamic State terrorist organization, efforts to prevent the resurgence of the terrorist organization in the region, as well as to monitor the changing situation in Syria.”

January 14 – Potential new threat to IDF forces in the buffer zone and in Israeli territory?

By: Boaz Shapira

Is there a potential new threat to IDF forces in the buffer zone and in Israeli territory? On December 17, 2024, the Syrian National Socialist Party announced the establishment of the “Southern Liberation Front,” against the backdrop of what it claimed was “Israeli aggression in Syria.” In recent days, the name has been changed to the “Islamic Resistance Front in Syria” and threats against Israel have begun. Is this Iranian and Hezbollah guidance as an alternative infrastructure for the Golan file? Or maybe just propaganda or a conscious campaign effort?

Read our full article.

The Shiite Axis – General

Yemen – Houthi-Land:

During the past week (January 13-19), the Houthis carried out 13 attacks, including 9 against targets in Israel in the areas of Eilat, Ashkelon, and Jaffa, and 3 attacks against the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman in the Red Sea. The attacks were carried out using UAVs, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles. On January 17 and 19, a number of U.S.-led coalition airstrikes were reported against Houthi targets in the area of Sharaf Safyan, Amran, and the area of Al-Azraqain (both north and Sana’a).

Above: an interception fragment from the Houthi missile.

January 17 – Statement by the leader of the Houthis in Yemen

The leader of the Houthis in Yemen, Abd Al-Malik Al-Houthi, announced that his organization would accompany the implementation of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip and stop its attacks against Israel, while continuing to be ready for military support if Israel withdrew from the agreement. In a televised speech broadcast on the organization’s Al-Masirah channel, Al-Houthi said: “Our position on the situation in Gaza is connected to the position of our brothers in the Palestinian factions, and we are continuing with them in the implementation phase of the agreement that will begin next Sunday.”

“We will keep pace with the implementation of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, and any Israeli withdrawal or massacres and sieges will be immediately met with military support for the Palestinian people,” he said.

Regarding the group’s total attacks, Al-Houthi said, “Since November 2023, we have carried out 1,255 operations between ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones, and military boats.”

Picture of Alma Research

Alma Research

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