The third week of the IDF’s ground maneuvers in southern Lebanon:
IDF forces operating in southern Lebanon are persistently locating and demolishing Hezbollah combat compounds, underground compounds, weapons, and underground shafts. Additionally, the IDF forces found and destroyed four Hezbollah underground infrastructures, a Radwan unit headquarters, large quantities of weapons, and more than 50 underground shafts and infrastructure located in mosques, schools, and other civilian buildings.
This past week, IDF forces located an underground compound that served as the headquarters of the Radwan unit in southern Lebanon. The 800-meter-long headquarters was located in the heart of a civilian neighborhood, and a large quantity of weapons were found, including shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, shells, motorcycles, additional underground shafts, and equipment for long-term stays, such as food and a kitchen used by the terrorists. All these were intended to be used by the Radwan forces on command as part of the plan to “take over the Galilee.”
Herzi Halevi, the Chief of Staff of the IDF, stated during his visit to southern Lebanon that they had eliminated over 1,500 Hezbollah operatives. Moreover, the assessment of the situation led to the decision to mobilize an additional reserve brigade to support the maneuver in Lebanon. So far, we have managed to verify close to 1100 Hezbollah fatalities.
During the week, airstrikes attacked Hezbollah weapons depots, rocket launchers, headquarters, and strategic weapons throughout Lebanon. On October 20, the IDF carried out a series of attacks throughout Lebanon against Hezbollah financial targets.
The Al-Qard al-Hasan Institute, a bank with over 200,000 customers and dozens of branches across Lebanon, was one of Hezbollah’s primary financial targets. Over time, it evolved into a money laundering wing for Hezbollah, a “bank of Hezbollah operatives.” An unidentified party successfully hacked the institute’s databases at the start of 2021. An anonymous party leaked a large amount of information about customers’ accounts, including numerous accounts of sanctioned Hezbollah operatives, al-Qard al-Hassan’s accounts in other banks, which violated American sanctions and were used to launder Hezbollah funds, and even images from the branches’ security cameras.
Hezbollah’s public pronouncements attempt to retain the narrative of its forces’ triumph against Israel. Hezbollah does not deny Israel’s military supremacy, stating that hundreds of operatives are battling tens of thousands of IDF troops. Hezbollah continues to claim that it has successfully stopped the IDF’s maneuvering forces from advancing. Reality demonstrates differently.
Hezbollah divides its operations into four levels: engaging maneuvering IDF forces, operating the missile and rocket array, launching UAVs via the air unit (Unit 127), and operating the air defense system.
Regarding the attacks in Lebanon, the IDF operates virtually unopposed in the villages, while Hezbollah primarily conducts its attacks remotely using high-trajectory fire and anti-tank missiles, avoiding direct confrontation with the IDF. Hezbollah claims that it succeeds in intercepting IDF UAVs and manages to keep IAF planes out of Lebanese airspace. However, these claims have no verification. Hezbollah’s two most significant arrays are rockets and UAVs, through which Hezbollah manages to continue carrying out attacks against Israel, causing casualties and damage. Hezbollah launched a rocket from Lebanon this past week, killing an Israeli civilian. Additionally, a Hezbollah UAV targeted a building in Caesarea, aiming to hit Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Hezbollah’s trump card is the UAV array. Hezbollah will continue to use it as much as possible, continuously looking for “victorious images.”
The total number of attacks into Israeli territory from Lebanon in the past week was 239. This is down from 257 attacks the week before. The number of projectiles fired at Israel also declined this week; we know of at least 532 rockets and missiles fired at Israel from Lebanon this week, compared with over 700 rockets and missiles fired in the previous week.
54% of Hezbollah’s attacks focused on areas and communities near the border with Lebanon (0-5 kilometers). Hezbollah main weapon continues to be high trajectory fire. Notably, this week there has been a decrease in the number of attacks in areas close to the border and an increase in attacks in areas further from the border. In the previous week, 57.6% of Hezbollah’s attacks were concentrated in border-adjacent areas.
Italy, Britain, France, and Germany issued a joint statement last week asserting that “Israeli attacks on UNIFIL bases must stop and are contrary to international law.” In addition, the European Union issued a similar official statement condemning all attacks against UN missions.
The Lebanese arena:
War data:
This past week six soldiers were killed in battles in southern Lebanon and one civilian was killed by a rocket fired by Hezbollah near the city of Acre.
As a result of Hezbollah attacks, 29 civilians and 47 IDF soldiers have been killed in Israel so far, a total of 76 people.
In Israel, the government evacuated 43 communities located up to five kilometers from the Lebanese border. A total of about 68,000 citizens. To them were added several thousand more who decided to evacuate independently.
It should be noted that some of the Israeli communities have not been fully evacuated and there is a civilian presence there (agriculture and industry).
The Israeli government has extended the evacuation period until 31 December 2024.
During the past week 239 attacks were carried out along the northern border, of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 145 attacks against Israel. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for another 25 attacks for which there was no verification.
Since the beginning of the war, 3,964 attacks have been carried out in the northern arena, the vast majority of which were carried out by Hezbollah.
Prominent launching and shooting incidents against Israel
(October 14) Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 33 of the 44 attacks against Israel from Lebanon. Communities near the Israeli Lebanese border were the target of half of the attacks (22). The rest of the attacks targeted the cities of Haifa, Karmiel, Safed, and Kiryat Shmona. In addition, Hezbollah carried out two rockets attacks to Netanya and Tel Aviv areas, all of which were intercepted.
(October 15) There were 32 attacks against Israel from Lebanon, of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 19 attacks. Most of the attacks (17) were carried out in communities and areas near the Israeli Lebanese border. The remainder of the attacks were directed at areas farther from the border, firing more than 20 rockets toward the Haifa area and about 50 launches into the city of Safed.
(October 16) There were 25 attacks against Israel from Lebanon, of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 13 attacks. Hezbollah carried out about 30 launches toward the city of Karmiel, fired at the city of Safed and launched a UAV that was intercepted in the Jezreel Valley.
(October 17) There were 31 attacks against Israel from Lebanon, of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 15 attacks. Most of the attacks (19) were carried out in communities and areas near the Israeli Lebanese border. Two rockets were fired at Haifa and Yokneam, and about 40 rockets were fired at the community of Kfar Vradim.
(October 18) There were 29 attacks against Israel from Lebanon, of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 15 attacks. Thirteen attacks were carried out in communities and areas near the Israeli Lebanese border. In addition, more than 15 launches were carried out toward the Krayot, about 20 to Safed and Rosh Pina.
(October 19) 36 attacks were carried out against Israel from Lebanon, of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 22 attacks. Most of the attacks (24) were carried out in communities and areas near the border with Lebanon. Hezbollah’s rocket barrages into the Western Galilee and the Krayot region killed one civilian and wounded 13 others. In addition, Hezbollah launched a UAV toward the city of Caesarea, about 70 km from the border with Lebanon, in an attempt to hit the home of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. There were no casualties in the incident.
(October 20) 42 attacks were carried out against Israel from Lebanon, of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 28 attacks. During the day Hezbollah fired about 70 rockets into the Western Galilee at the communities of Ya’ara, Shlomi and Adamit and about 30 rockets into Safed. In addition, several attacks were carried out by individual launches to the Haifa area and the Lower Galilee region.
Hezbollah and other organization casualties
Hezbollah stopped regularly publicizing its casualties. However, the social networks publish announcements about funerals of operatives killed against the backdrop of posters of Hezbollah fatalities. Based on reports on social media, we identified at least 168 Hezbollah operatives killed this week. But the numbers are much higher.
As of October 8, 2023, about 1,097 Hezbollah operatives that we managed to document were killed, but the actual number is apparently over 1,500. Most of the operatives killed originated south of the Litani River (656 operatives killed, constituting 59% of all the operatives killed).
According to reports in Lebanon, since the beginning of the war, 89 operatives of other organizations in Lebanon have been killed, including Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Amal Movement, Al-Jama’ah al-Salamiya (Al-Fajr), the Lebanese Resistance Brigades, Fatah and the Democratic Front.
Eliminations of senior Hezbollah figures
This week, 11 senior Hezbollah commanders were eliminated, including the commander of the anti-tank division in the Radwan unit, the commander of the northern Litani sector of the air unit, the commander of the Qana sector, the head of artillery in the Qana sector, the commander of the Qana sector, the commander of the a-Tayba compound, the deputy commander of the Bint Jbeil sector, a senior official in Hezbollah’s intelligence system and a senior official in the southern front headquarters that was in charge of a team that dealt with Hezbollah’s strategic weapons buildup.
As of October 8, 2023, 138 senior Hezbollah operatives have been eliminated. The most senior is Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. In addition, among the senior figures killed were Jihad Council members Fouad Shakhar (head of the strategic divisions), Ibrahim Aqil (head of the operations division), Ali Karki (commander of the southern front), Suheil Hussein Husseini (commander of the headquarters) and Hashem Safieddine (the intended successor of Nasrallah).
- 7 Senior Hezbollah leaders (5.1% of those eliminated)
- 24.6% of those eliminated, a total of 34, belonged the Radwan unit, including acting unit commanders Wassam al-Tawil (January 2024) and Ahmad Mahmoud Wahbi (September 2024).
- 23.2%, a total of 32 of the geographic units (Southern Front), with an emphasis on the Nasser unit, including unit commander Haj Abu Taleb and Aziz unit commander Ahmad Naama Nasser. The emphasis in the Radwan unit and in the geographical units was placed on eliminating commanders of sectors (equivalent to brigade commanders) and commanders in professional formations (rockets/anti-tanks, etc.).
- 31, or 22.5%, commanders of various ranks killed in the ground maneuvers in southern Lebanon.
- Five senior operatives from the air unit, including the unit commander, were eliminated.
- Three others are from Hezbollah’s air defense system.
- Two senior operatives and the commander of Hezbollah’s weapons transfer unit from Syria to Lebanon (Unit 4400).
- An operative in the engineering unit and a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council.
- 3.6% of those killed, a total of 5, constituted knowledge centers in the fields of research/development/production of weapons and combat support technology.
- 8%, 11 senior operatives from the rocket missile array, including the unit commander and the unit commander in southern Lebanon.
Prominent airstrikes in Lebanon
(October 14) The IDF eliminated Muhammad Kamel Na’im, commander of Hezbollah’s Radwan unit’s anti-tank system. This terrorist was responsible for planning and executing many terror attacks, including anti-tank fire at the Israeli home front.
(October 15) In the Nabatiyeh area, the IDF eliminated terrorist Khader al-Abd Bhaja, in charge of Hezbollah’s northern Litani sector.
(October 16) The IDF eliminated Jalal Mustafa Hariri, commander of Hezbollah’s Qana sector. Along with Hariri, the artillery chief and the anti-tank commander of the Hezbollah terrorist organization in the area were also eliminated.
In addition, the IDF attacked Hezbollah strategic weapons stored in an underground warehouse in the Dahiya, Beirut. Prior to the attack, many steps were taken to reduce the chances of civilian casualties, including advance warnings to the population in the area.
(October 17) Hussein Muhammad Awacha, commander of a battalion in Hezbollah’s Bint Jabal area, was eliminated. Awacha was responsible for promoting rocket launches from several villages in the Bint Jabal area to Israeli territory.
(October 18) Hezbollah commander Muhammad Hussein Ramal was eliminated. Muhammad directed many terror attacks against the State of Israel and IDF forces on the ground.
(October 19) Nasser Abd al-Aziz Rashid, deputy commander of Hezbollah’s Bint Jbeil sector, was eliminated. Rashid promoted and carried out terrorist attacks from the Bint Jbeil area against the citizens of the State of Israel.
In addition, al-Haj Abbas Salameh, a senior figure in Hezbollah’s Southern Front headquarters, was eliminated. Salameh led the fighting in the Bint Jbeil sector and took part in launching many terrorist attacks towards the State of Israel. In the past, Salameh served in many positions on Hezbollah’s southern front. Also eliminated were the terrorists Reza Abbas Awacha, who served as a senior communications expert in the Hezbollah terrorist organization, and terrorist Ahmed Ali Hussein, who was in charge of a team that dealt with Hezbollah’s strategic weapons buildup. Hossein also underwent in-depth training in Iran.
(October 19) A targeted airstrike attacked several weapons depots and the headquarters of Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters in the Dahiya, Beirut. Prior to the attack, many steps were taken to reduce the chances of civilian casualties, including advance warnings to the population in the area.
(October 20) IDF targeted airstrikes dozens of facilities and sites used by the Hezbollah terrorist organization to finance its terrorist activities against the State of Israel. The strikes were conducted in the areas of Beirut, southern Lebanon, and deep within Lebanese territory. Prior to the attacks, numerous alerts and warnings were issued to residents to evacuate areas that would be targeted, aiming to reduce the risk of harm to civilians.
Hezbollah – General:
Care for the Shiite population and civilian and military rehabilitation efforts:
(October 15) Hezbollah members of the Lebanese parliament, Amin Shari, Ali Fayyad, and Ibrahim al-Moussawi, toured several displaced persons shelters in central Beirut, where they were briefed on their conditions, listened to their demands and needs, and were briefed on the progress of securing all forms of support.
Hezbollah’s arsenal was severely damaged, but Hezbollah still has an arsenal that enables it to continue launching missiles, rockets and UAVs towards Israeli territory over time. Some use large barrages of dozens of munitions simultaneously.
Hezbollah’s rehabilitation in terms of its arsenal depends on the Iranian arms corridor (which includes the CERS infrastructure in Syria) and on Hezbollah’s production and self-assembly capability on Lebanese soil. The production and assembly capacity are not absolute and is limited. The weapons arsenal mentioned under this capability is also smuggled to Hezbollah through the Iranian corridor.
Recommendations:
- Attacking sites and workshops for the manufacture and assembly of weapons throughout Lebanon, including in the Dahiya, should remain a priority.
- CERS sites in Syria must be attacked laterally and their development and production capabilities must be destroyed.
- A continuous policy of blocking the corridor along all its routes (land, air, and sea) and damaging the entry gates into Syria and Lebanon must continue.
- The effort to eliminate knowledge centers and force buildup must continue both in the Quds Force (emphasis on Unit 340, which is responsible for research and development of the proxies’ independent production capabilities) and Hezbollah (emphasis on the Weapons Manufacturing Administration and Unit 4400).
Since the ground maneuver in southern Lebanon, many photos and videos have been published showing the quantities and types of weapons seized. The maneuver, in addition to the airstrikes, also deprives Hezbollah of a large quantity of weapons. From the large quantity of the spoils, it is possible to examine the types of weapons in Hezbollah’s possession: personal weapons, machine guns, sniper rifles, grenade machine guns, mines, IEDs, anti-tank weapons, and more. The records show that much of the equipment and weapons are in a mint condition, from recent years and from a variety of sources:
-106mm artillery shells originating in Spain
– A variety of Russian-made weapons, such as Kornet 9M133 missiles, and related systems, manufactured in 2015-2020, Igla-S anti-aircraft systems whose production began only in 2015, RPG parts with a production date of 2018-2021.
– The Thar-Allah system manufactured in Iran. The system, which arrived at Hezbollah in 2015, was designed to fire two anti-tank missiles within a short period of time in order to overcome the Trophy system. The system is capable of firing Kornet missiles as well as Dhalaviya missiles (the Iranian imitation of Kornet)
– American Mk-19 grenade machine gun and M-40 gun
Another interesting documentation, illustrating the cooperation between Russia, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah, can be seen on the wooden crate containing weapons. The inscription on the crate, written in Russian, indicates that the shipment was destined for the Syrian Ministry of Defense.
(October 15) Naim Qassem, Nasrallah’s deputy speech:
In his speech, Qassem tried to justify Hezbollah’s war against Israel, claiming that Lebanon cannot be separated from Palestine or the region from Palestine: “Lebanon falls within the Israeli expansionist project.” He claimed that Israel poses a real threat to the region and the world, and with the total support of the United States, “we are facing the danger of a new Middle East in the Israeli-American way.” Qassem tried to fend off the attacks of Hezbollah’s opponents in Lebanon against Iran, saying that the Iranians support the Palestinians, and the goal is to liberate Palestine. Support for Palestine is a source of pride for Iran, which makes every effort to strengthen and empower the Palestinians.
Qassem justified Hamas’ October 7 attacks, saying that “our support for the Palestinians is support for justice, because the Palestinians are the rightful owners.”
Qassem admits that the damage to Hezbollah’s leadership, especially Nasrallah, was significant and severe. Since the September 17 pager attack, Hezbollah has transitioned into a new phase of addressing the war in Lebanon, no longer solely providing support. According to him, Hezbollah’s mission is to pursue the IDF and conduct attacks against it wherever it advances. Since last week, Hezbollah has devised a new strategy known as the equation of pain for the enemy, with the aim of causing harm to Israel. This is reflected in rocket and missile fire deep into Israel, as far as Tel Aviv, which also caused disruptions at Ben Gurion Airport. Qassem justified firing at civilian areas since Israel has already attacked all of Lebanon and they are on the defensive.
(Alma note: Naim Qassem “forgot” that in reality they were the ones who began the attacks against Israel on October 8, 2023, and have carried out dozens of attacks daily since then.)
Qassem addressed the Israeli home front in order to exert indirect pressure, saying that the solution is a ceasefire. Only through it will the residents return to their homes in the north of Israel. However, as the war continues, the number of evacuated communities will increase, and hundreds of thousands of civilians, even more than two million (referring to the Tel Aviv area, Gush Dan), will be in danger.
Hezbollah’s Use of UNIFIL as Human Shields
As of September 2, 2024, UNIFIL comprises 50 countries and includes 10,058 staff (headquarters, soldiers and administration). China has 418 representatives in UNIFIL. They are located in the western sector and mainly man UNIFIL Post No. 5-10, located between Mansouri and Zibqin. On October 17, Hezbollah operatives fired rockets at Israel about 150 meters from their outpost and again used UNIFIL facilities as human shields. A large and well-known Hezbollah military zone is located in Wadi Zibqin, about 800 meters southeast. One can guess that the Chinese never toured there in order to fulfill the Mandate of 1701.
Lebanon – General:
(October 16) Eight tons of medicines were donated by Brazilian pharmaceutical companies. This is the second phase of aid from Brazil allocated to Lebanese public hospitals.
In addition, a plane carrying humanitarian aid from Jordan arrived at Rafic Hariri International Airport in Beirut and another plane carrying medical aid from France.
(October 19) According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, since October 8, 2023, there have been 2448 deaths and 11470 wounded in Lebanon. It is unclear to what extent these figures are authentic, and there is no separation between Hezbollah operatives and civilians in the number of fatalities.
The Syrian arena:
Syria -General:
(October 15) The Syrian Army announced that it had intercepted nine UAVs and drones of various types launched by opposition organizations.
During the past week, it was reported that Russia requested pro-Iranian militias to evacuate their command post near the Deir ez-Zor military airport and several other locations in the city. This came just a few days after reports indicated that Assad, with Russian support, took action to limit the activities of militias associated with Iran and Hezbollah in order to avoid an Israeli attack. There is no confirmation of these reports.
Shiite Axis – General
(October 17) An attack on the American base in the CONCO gas field in Syria was reported.
In anticipation of the next phase of the direct confrontation between Iran and Israel, a former senior US military commander proposed a significant redeployment of the largest American bases in the region, with an emphasis on bases in the Persian Gulf. This is in order to reduce their vulnerability to the Islamic Republic’s firepower capabilities. Read the article: The Iranian threat to U.S. bases in the Middle East – should they be considered?
During the past week (October 14-20), the Islamic resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for 14 attacks against Israel. Six incidents were reported in which aerial targets on route to Israeli territory were intercepted.
From November 2023 to October 21, 2024, the Islamic resistance in Iraq claimed 221 strikes against Israel.
Yemen – Houthi-land:
(October 16) US forces launched a targeted attack against five fortified underground weapons storage sites in Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen. The airstrikes were carried out by B2 strategic bombers, which arrived on a direct flight from the United States.
(October 18) The Houthis claimed responsibility for launching suicide UAVs at the “MEGALOPOLIS” container ship.
Since October 2023, there have been 216 Houthi attacks against Israel, the United States and other targets.
