The Northern Arena and the Shiite Axis – Weekly Review of Events and Key Data (June 10-June 16)

Since October 8, 2023, 29 senior Hezbollah operatives have been eliminated. 37.9% of them, 11 in total, belonged to the geographic units (southern front), with an emphasis on the Nasser unit, including the unit’s commander, Haj Abu Taleb. Approximately 34.5% of the Radwan unit, which amounts to 10 individuals, including the unit’s acting leader, Wassam al-Tawil, were eliminated as well. The primary focus of the Radwan unit and geographical units was on removing sector leaders (similar to brigade commanders) and commanders in specialized arrays (such as rockets/anti-tanks, etc.). Furthermore, two high-ranking operatives from the air unit and two individuals from Hezbollah’s air defense system were eliminated. Out of the total number of people killed, 4 individuals, which is equivalent to 13.8%, were experts in the areas of research, development, manufacture of weapons, and combat support technologies.

elimination attempts are critical and necessary. Regardless of the eliminations, Hezbollah has operational and command continuity. This endeavor cannot be the primary focus, but rather a concurrent and supplementary effort to the main focus, which is to cause significant harm to Hezbollah’s tactical fire.

The Lebanese arena:

War data:

In Israel, the government evacuated 43 communities located up to five kilometers from the Lebanese border. A total of about 61,000 citizens. To them were added several thousand more who decided to evacuate independently.

It should be noted that some of the Israeli communities have not been fully evacuated, and there is a civilian presence there (agriculture and industry).

The Israeli government has extended the evacuation period until the summer of 2024 (July/August 2024).

Hezbollah has caused the death of 8 Israeli civilians and one agricultural worker with foreign citizenship so far. A total of 9 civilians were killed.

In recent weeks, Hezbollah has focused on, among other things, firing into wooded regions and taking advantage of the dry weather that has caused fires. According to the Nature and Parks Authority, 45,000 dunams of forests have burned in northern Israel in the last two weeks alone, increasing the total to 60,000 dunams since the beginning of the year. So far, the Upper Galilee and the Golan Heights have sustained the most damage: around 30,000 dunams were burned in the Upper Galilee and approximately 22,000 dunams in the Golan Heights.

During the past week, 96 attacks were carried out on the northern border, of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 77 attacks against Israel, using high-trajectory fire (including Grad and Falaq rockets), anti-tank missiles, suicide UAVs, and anti-aircraft missiles.

There has been no claim of responsibility for 14 incidents, including 13 UAV infiltrations and one incident involving two launches at the community of Yaara.

The Islamic resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for 6 attacks on the northern border.In the northern arena, there have been 2,133 attacks since the war started, with Hezbollah being responsible for the vast majority of them.

Prominent launching and shooting incidents against Israel:

(June 10) Hezbollah fired a surface-to-air missile at an Israeli Hermes 900 UAV that fell in Lebanese territory (we shall publish a separate article analyzing the incident and the implications).

(June 10-11) the communities of Shtula, Ibn Menachem, Netua, Metula, Misgav Am, Kfar Blum and Gesher HaZiv were attacked with anti-tank missiles and high-trajectory fire (including Grad rockets). In most of the airstrikes, Hezbollah claimed that they were responses to IDF attacks in Lebanon.

The Shavuot festival in the community of Kafr Blum was halted due to rocket alarms, following an intense barrage of rocket fire launched by Hezbollah.

(June 11) Hezbollah responded to the IDF strike on Baalbek with several attacks against Israel, one of which involved the launch of around 50 Grad rockets toward the Golan Heights.

(June 12) In response to the elimination of the commander of the Nasser unit on the southern front (equivalent to a division commander), Taleb Sami Abdallah (Hajj Abu Taleb), and three other senior staff members in the village of Jouaiyya, Hezbollah carried out nine attacks against Israel in retaliation to the elimination of the senior official: launching over 200 Grad launches at the areas of Sasa, Safed, Meron, Amiad, Shomera and Bar’am; Two incidents involving the launching of heavy Burkan rockets into the area of Zar’it, and the launching of suicide UAVs toward the Hermon area.

(June 13) Hezbollah carried out a combined attack using about 40 Grad rockets and UAVs against eight military targets. Later in the day, Hezbollah carried out another UAV attack against military bases. In reality, many rockets fell in civilian areas. The two airstrikes, according to Hezbollah, were part of the continued response to the elimination of Haj Abu Taleb, commander of the Nasser unit.

Hezbollah rocket fire caused fires close to the city of Katzrin.

(June 14) Hezbollah launched about 35 dozen Grad and Falaq rockets at the cities of Kiryat Shmona and Kafr Szold in retaliation for the IDF attack in southern Lebanon, specifically in light of the IDF attack on the village of Janata.

Fires following rocket launches toward Kibbutz Kfar Szold.

(June 15) Hezbollah launched anti-tank missiles at the Meron base and several suicide UAVs at a military base in Western Galilee, claiming it was part of the continued response to the killing of Hajj Abu Taleb, commander of the Nasser unit. Hezbollah published a video of the attack, filmed by a surveillance UAV.

Hezbollah casualties:

Over the past week, a statement was released reporting 8 Hezbollah military operatives killed.

As of October 8, 2023, a total of 343 Hezbollah operatives had been killed. Most of the operatives killed live south of the Litani River (228 operatives killed, constituting 66% of all the operatives killed). Many Hezbollah operatives and their families live in southern Lebanon, near the border with Israel. They operate in southern Lebanon as part of Hezbollah’s geographic units (Nasser/Aziz) and Hezbollah’s designated units (Radwan unit), while assimilating into the civilian population (human shield tactics).

In addition, this week a Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorist, from the Lebanon wing, named Muhammad Zuheir Khalil Galbut was killed.

According to reports in Lebanon, since the beginning of the war, 48 operatives of other organizations in Lebanon have been killed, including Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Amal movement, and the Muslim Brotherhood (Al-Fajr).

Prominent airstrikes in Lebanon

(June 11) In response to Hezbollah’s downing of the Israeli Hermes 900 UAV, the IDF attacked a compound belonging to Unit 4400 in Baalbek, which is in charge of Hezbollah’s logistical buildup and serves to transport weapons to and from Lebanon. The area attacked is close to the border with Syria, Hush al-Sayyid Ali, northeast of the city of Al-Hermel in the Bekaa Valley. This area is part of the major route for the transfer of weapons through the Iranian corridor. According to released videos, it appears that several trucks were struck in the compound.

Unit 4400 works in cooperation with Unit 190 of the Revolutionary Guards, which is responsible for transporting weapons through the corridor. The weapons reach this area through the corridor routes that pass through Syria through the city of Homs and from there to the town of Qusayr near Hush al-Sayyid Ali. There are 2 main vehicle crossings at Hawsh Al-Sayyid Ali and another 8 optional ones (see map).

Documentation from the scene of the attack in the Al-Hermel area.

On the night of June 11, the commander of the Nasser unit of the southern front (equivalent to a division commander), Taleb Sami Abdullah (also known as “Haj Abu Taleb”) was eliminated along with three other senior staff members of the Nasser unit. They were eliminated in the unit’s headquarters in the village of Jouaiyya in southern Lebanon. Hajj Abu Taleb has served as commander of the Nasser unit since 2016, and is considered a veteran of Hezbollah (the Muqdamin). The Nasser unit is one of three geographical units operating under Hezbollah’s southern front under the command of Ali Karki. For further information, see our article “Hezbollah Southern Front / Nasser Unit – Assassination of Unit Commander and Other Senior Officials – Details and Significance.

Hezbollah – General:

(June 12) Thousands attended Taleb Sami Abdallah’s funeral ceremonies, commander of the Nasser unit on the southern front.

(June 13) Gibran Bassil, leader of the Free Patriotic Movement party, held a meeting (reconciliation?) with Muhammad Raad, head of the Hezbollah faction in parliament. The meeting was attended by senior Hezbollah official and head of Hezbollah’s liaison and coordination unit, Wafiq Safa, and a member of the powerful Lebanese bloc, MP Cesar Abi Khalil.

Lebanon – general:

(June 14) During his visit to the United States, Lebanese Army Commander Joseph Aoun met with the Chairman of the US Senate Armed Services Committee, Senator Jack Reed, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Charles Brown Jr., and the US Task Force on Lebanon (ATFL). The meetings dealt with the general situation in Lebanon and the region and ways to assist the army at this anomalous stage.

The Syrian arena:

Syria – General:

(June 12) The Syrian regime’s security authorities announced that they had foiled a shipment of about 700,000 Captagon pills in the rural area of Damascus destined for Iraq.

(June 14) An ambush by ISIS forces in the Albukamal area attacked a convoy of Syrian Army trucks. Three Syrian soldiers were killed.

The Shiite Axis – General

The most recent attack on American bases in Iraq and Syria by Shiite militias, officially reported by US Central Command, took place on February 20. According to various reports, the attacks on the American bases stopped due to direct Iranian instructions to the Shiite militias, against the background of secret agreements between Iran and the United States.

Since then, according to several local indications, the Shiite militias have carried out several attacks against American bases in northeastern Syria. Although we believe that there were indeed airstrikes, the US Central Command has not confirmed them publicly as it did before February 20.

(June 12) For the second time since the beginning of the war, the Islamic resistance in Iraq and Houthi forces claim responsibility for two joint operations attacking targets. The first, was in Haifa launching UAVs. The second is in Ashdod firing missiles. No further indications of attacks were reported.

Yemen – Houthi-land:

During the past week, coalition forces managed to strike 8 radar arrays, 3 explosive boats, 3 UAVs, 2 cruise missiles ready for launch, 2 cruise missile launchers, and 2 patrol boats. 

(June 12) Houthi forces attacked the Greek-owned ship “TUTOR” in the Red Sea using a booby-trapped unmanned surface vehicle (USV). The ship, hoisting the Liberian flag and transporting coal to India, sustained heavy damage and began to sink.Since October 2023, there have been 177 Houthi strikes against Israel, the United States, and other targets.

Picture of Alma Research

Alma Research

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