Lebanese Arena
Special and comprehensive report on the Lebanese army written by the Alma Center.
The enforcement of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah is based on one central anchor – the Lebanese army. A special report, written by us on the Lebanese army, attempts to answer several key questions:
- How do demographic changes in Lebanon affect the army today, and what are the future implications (dangers) for the army?
- Who are the commanders who harm the army’s ability to operate effectively and enforce international agreements, with an emphasis on agreements with Israel and what can be done in this context?
- How did the performance of these commanders affect the functioning of the Lebanese army units at the beginning of the expiry of the original test period of the ceasefire (January 26, 2025) and how will it affect future performance?
- Why is the assumption that the Lebanese army can serve as a counterweight to Hezbollah fundamentally flawed?
- Should economic and military aid to the Lebanese army continue?
Some of the answers to the questions cast doubt on the ability of the Lebanese army to serve as an effective counterbalance, constituting food for thought. They are also the basis for policy recommendations. A comprehensive and in-depth picture of the Lebanese army can be found in our report’s appendices that include details of its structure, its missions, its units, and more.
A full version of the report in Hebrew and English is available at the following link:
IDF Activity in Lebanon:
Attack on Hezbollah Operatives
On February 25th, the IDF reported that it targeted several Hezbollah operatives who were identified at a facility in the Bekaa region used for the production and storage of strategic weapons belonging to the terrorist organization.
Elimination of a Senior Operative in Unit 4400 – Hezbollah’s Strengthening Unit
Hezbollah’s Unit 4400 continues to operate on the Lebanese-Syrian border. In an attack on a vehicle carried out on February 26th in the Lebanese village of Al-Qasr, north of Al-Hermel in the Beqaa (see aerial photo of the location of the attack), the unit’s operative, Mahran Ali Nasser al-Din, was killed. He was a central figure in the arms transfer operation and a liaison to smugglers in the area. In the village of Al-Qasr, there is an organized border crossing and several unofficial crossings (marked in red in the aerial photo of the village). After the fall of the Assad regime and the rise of the new regime in Syria, the Iranian weapons corridor that passed from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon was cut off for the time being. Despite this, in the Homs area and west of it (an area considered a central geographical anchor of the corridor), we estimate that there are still weapons that Hezbollah has not yet managed to transfer to Lebanon before the fall of the Assad regime. The area between the Syrian town of Al-Qusayr, west towards the Lebanese border, towards the village of Al-Qasr, is a central and known route for arms transfers. Hezbollah, through Unit 4400, is trying, in our estimation, to extract the weapons remaining in this area and transfer them to Lebanon.
Also, Hezbollah is trying to establish procurement routes for weapons remaining in Syria that Hezbollah is interested in. An additional elimination of a Hezbollah operative engaged in such procurement will be detailed later.
The Iranians and Hezbollah have not yet given up on using the corridor and will try to operate it in a new version.
Attack on Hezbollah Observation Post
On February 27th, the IDF attacked a Hezbollah observation post in the Aynata area of southern Lebanon after unusual activity was detected there.
Elimination of Muhammad Mahdi Ali Shahin
On February 28th, the IDF eliminated Muhammad Mahdi Ali Shahin, a Hezbollah operative who was engaged in concentrating terrorist deals for the procurement of weapons on the Syrian-Lebanese border. Shahin is a central activist in the geographical unit responsible for the Beqaa region in Hezbollah – the Haider Unit, which has recently been engaged in transferring weapons from Syria to Lebanon.
As part of his role, Shahin received responsibility for carrying out terrorist deals for the procurement of weapons for Hezbollah and for mediating between the arrival of shipments and their distribution to the various units, in order to continue the process of Hezbollah’s rearmament. In this context, Shahin worked with various merchants or smugglers who are on the Syrian-Lebanese border and cooperate with the terrorist organization Hezbollah.
Lebanon General:
Attempt to Smuggle a Large Sum of Money to Hezbollah
The Lebanese Ministry of Finance reported on February 28th that the Passenger and Duty-Free Department of the Lebanese Customs Directorate detained a passenger who arrived from Turkey at Beirut International Airport with a sum of money in US currency amounting to two and a half million dollars. The funds were confiscated, and the person carrying them was investigated. According to estimates, this is Iranian money that was supposed to reach Hezbollah in Lebanon through Turkey. The funds were confiscated by judicial order because they were not declared in advance, and their intended use was not specified. (For further reading on the topic of “Turkish smuggling routes,” see the article by Dr. Yossi Mansharof, published by us in January 2025.)
Hezbollah is trying to receive money from Iran through Turkey after the closure of land routes through Syria and the ban on direct flights from Iran.
The question arises: If one suitcase with money was caught, then how many such suitcases were not caught and reached Hezbollah?
Lebanese Prime Minister on a Tour of the South
On Friday, February 28th, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam arrived in southern Lebanon by military helicopter, accompanied by the interim army commander, Hassan Odeh, and a group of ministers, on a tour that included the army bases in Tyre, Marjayoun, and Al-Khiam. The Prime Minister praised the Lebanese army and its role in maintaining Lebanon and the south’s sovereignty and stability and pledged to strengthen it. He also expressed appreciation for UNIFIL’s role in southern Lebanon, while condemning the attacks on this force.
In the video at the following link, it appears that Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, during his tour of one of the towns in southern Lebanon, encountered a local resident who demanded that Salam thank the resistance and claims that if it weren’t for Hezbollah and the martyrs, Salam would not have been able to set foot on the soil of the south, meaning that Hezbollah protected the area from Israel.
The Army Helps the Children of the South
The Lebanese army announced on February 26th that “as part of the military efforts to support citizens in the southern regions, the Civil-Military Cooperation Department in the army, in coordination with the South Litani sector, distributed 1,238 school book-bags to students in the Tyre, Marjayoun, and Bint Jbeil districts.”
The Beginning of the Month of Ramadan amidst ongoing war
The Muslim world began observing the holy month of Ramadan on March 1st. During this month, Muslims around the world fast from sunrise to sunset, which is considered a means of spiritual purification, strengthening faith, and learning self-control. Ramadan ends with the Eid al-Fitr holiday, which is a holiday that marks the end of the fast and includes special prayers, festive meals, and giving charity to the needy.
In Lebanon and Syria, preparations for the month of Ramadan focus on ensuring public safety, especially in light of the regional tension and recent security events, with the aim of maintaining stability during the period and increasing security around central prayer sites and public events, to prevent attempts to harm public peace during the holiday.
At the same time, the Muslim community in Lebanon and Syria is preparing for the month of Ramadan through religious, social, and community activities, including special prayers, joint Iftar meals (breaking the fast meals), and giving charity to the needy, in accordance with the holiday tradition.
In addition to the security aspect on the part of the authorities, in Lebanon and Syria, they are dealing with significant economic challenges, especially in light of the rise in food and commodity prices. The complex economic situation in the two countries, which is influenced, among other things, by political instability and international sanctions, is leading to a continuous rise in the cost of living.
During Ramadan, the demand for basic food products such as sugar, flour, and oil increases, which sometimes leads to further price increases. In countries with vulnerable economies, such as Lebanon and Syria, these increases are particularly felt and burden the population.
However, it can be seen that the new Syrian and Lebanese governments are taking steps to reduce food prices during the month of Ramadan, including price controls and increased supervision of suppliers and retailers. In addition, they cooperate with international and local aid organizations to ensure a regular supply of basic products at subsidized prices, with the aim of easing the economic burden on citizens during this period.
Furthermore, governments and local organizations try to provide assistance to the needy by distributing food and organizing community Iftar meals, but limited resources make it difficult to meet all needs.
Hezbollah General:
Power Struggles Between Senior Hezbollah Officials Who Survived elimination attempts
Muhammad Haydar and Haytham Ali Tabatabai are currently at the top of Hezbollah’s military echelon. It is possible that in light of their different professional backgrounds, there is personal and professional tension between them. Tabatabai was a “natural candidate” for elimination before and during the war, and there is no doubt that he should be a candidate for elimination in the future as well. His survival in recent years raises several question marks.
Read more in the attached article.
Mass Funeral for Those Killed from the Villages Near the Border, Aytroun and Ayta al-Shaab
Hezbollah held a large funeral on February 28th for 95 “martyrs,” most of whom were from the villages of Aytroun and Ayta al-Shaab, who were killed during the last war.
40 Years Since the Establishment of the Imam al-Mahdi Scouts
The “Imam al-Mahdi” Scouts marked the 40th anniversary of its establishment on February 28th at an event held in the “Al-Muda” hall in the city of Al-Hermel, north of Baalbek in the Beqaa. During the event, there were recitations from the Quran, scout songs, and the anthem.
The Hezbollah Scout Movement was founded in 1985 and has over 40,000 trainees in dozens of branches throughout Lebanon. The activity in the movement is relevant from the age of 8 until high school. As part of the training, especially in adolescence, the trainees receive religion lessons and lessons to strengthen Shiite ideology. The youth in it are actually ripe for recruiting new activists to the ranks of Hezbollah. After the age of 16-17, many trainees join the organization’s military activity directly.
Assistance in honor of the month of Ramadan
Hezbollah’s “Wataawano” (“Help”) association, in cooperation with the Ministry of Social Work, distributed 10,000 food parcels on February 27th, in anticipation of the month of Ramadan, which began on March 1st. In addition to this, the association also provides additional assistance, such as operating kitchens providing meat, poultry, and vegetables, and assisting needy families.
The activity also included assistance to farmers in the Ramia village area in southern Lebanon, with a plan to return citizens to the border areas and provide them with ready-made houses, agricultural equipment, and seeds. The association also provides medical assistance, medicines, and infant formula, and carries out projects to renovate houses in the border areas.
The association donated 15 portable structures under the name “Good Deeds Project” to residents in the southern village of Ramia and another 10 portable structures that will be distributed to different villages on the border.
The name of the project in Arabic is “Al-Waja Al-Hasan,” which literally translates to “good/beautiful deeds” but also refers to Nasrallah’s name Hassan.
Condolence Visit of the Representative of Imam Khamenei in Lebanon
On March 1st Sheikh Muhammad Hassan Akhtari, the representative of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, visited the homes of the families of senior Hezbollah officials who were eliminated: Hassan Nasrallah, Hashem Safieddine, Fuad Shakar (Hezbollah’s Chief of Staff), Ali Karki (commander of the southern front), Ibrahim Aqil (commander of the operations division), Hussein al-Zima (intelligence commander), Suhail Hasini (commander of the logistics unit), and Muhammad Afif (head of the propaganda unit).
The delegation, which included other senior clerics, arrived in Beirut on Sunday, February 23rd, 2025, as representatives of the Iranian Supreme Leader, Khamenei, to participate in the funeral of Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine.
Hezbollah Completed 91% of the Compensation Files
According to Lebanese sources close to Hezbollah, as of March 1st, the organization, through the “Jihad al-Bina” institution, has completed scanning 292,000 housing and commercial units that were damaged in southern Lebanon. Out of this figure, 265,000 units were transferred to the compensation payment stage, which is 91% of all claims. In addition, 324 million dollars were allocated as assistance for the housing of families who lost their homes completely.
The geographical division indicates that north of the Litani River suffered damage to some of the buildings, with 2,000 units remaining under surveillance, while south of the Litani River, 2,695 units were completely destroyed.
The activity also includes scanning 26 villages on the border, and the expectation is to start paying compensation soon.
Palestinians in Lebanon
The Women of the Islamic Jihad in the Ein al-Hilweh Refugee Camp Event
The women of the Islamic Jihad movement held a religious celebration on February 28th in honor of the month of Ramadan at the Beit al-Maqdis center in the Ein al-Hilweh refugee camp in Sidon – southern Lebanon.
Syrian Arena
IDF Activity in Syria:
Entry of IDF Forces into the Town of al-Rafid
According to local reports, the IDF entered the town of al-Rafid in the south of Quneitra District in Syria on February 28th, carried out population mapping, and questioned residents about their economic and employment situation. The day before, forces also entered Tal Mashahra and withdrew after two hours. Due to the neglect of the area by the Syrian regime, poverty, and lack of basic services, some residents began to compare the Assad regime to the Israeli presence, which raises internal debates about receiving aid from Israel and even the possibility of working there.
Syria General:
The Battle of the Checkpoints in Jaramana that Almost Caused Israeli Intervention
Violent clashes erupted in Jaramana on March 1st, between the new Syrian regime forces and the local Druze, in what began as a localized confrontation and escalated into a battle that claimed casualties on both sides. At the same time, Israel issued a public warning to the Syrian regime, which raises the question – are we witnessing a strategic change in the balance of power in the region?
Read more in the attached article.
Thousands of Syrian Refugees Return to Their Country from Jordan
The Jordanian government announced on February 27th that since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, 42,675 Syrian refugees have left Jordan through the Jaber crossing back to Syria. According to the Jordanian Interior Ministry, 7,117 of them left the refugee camps, while 35,558 returned from different areas of the country. The authorities emphasized that all those returning did so of their own free will.
Jordan has “hosted” over 1.3 million Syrian refugees since 2011. According to UN data, about 680,000 of them are officially registered as refugees. The announcement comes against the backdrop of King Abdullah II’s meeting with the new Syrian President, Ahmed al-Shara, in which he stressed the need to create safe conditions for the return of refugees. It should be noted that Jordan closed the Jaber crossing in December 2024 due to tensions in southern Syria, but since the new regime gained control, Jordan has approved new restrictions on the crossing, including granting permission for the entry of Jordanian and Syrian investors.
Ahmed al-Shara’s Visit to Jordan
On February 26th, 2025, Syrian President Ahmed al-Shara met with King Abdullah II of Jordan in Amman. The meeting dealt with strengthening bilateral relations, economic, security, and political cooperation, as well as the situation of Syrian refugees in Jordan. The parties stressed the need for a political solution to the Syrian crisis, which will ensure Syria’s unity and sovereignty. They also discussed the fight against terrorism, smuggling, and drug trafficking along the shared border and agreed on strengthening security cooperation for regional stability.
National Dialogue Conference
The Syrian National Dialogue Conference opened on February 25th at the People’s Palace in Damascus, as part of the new government’s efforts to shape the political transition period after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. The conference is organized by the administration headed by President Ahmed al-Shara, and it includes participants from a wide range of audiences, including representatives from political parties, businesspeople, civil activists, religious figures, and academics.
According to the organizing committee’s announcement, during the past month, preliminary meetings were held with thousands of citizens throughout Syria to ensure that the issues raised for discussion reflect the true needs of the people. The purpose of the conference is to lay the foundations for a new government, formulate a future constitution, examine economic and institutional reforms, and find solutions that will ensure the country’s unity. Alongside this, discussions are held on political freedoms, justice, and the rehabilitation of the Syrian economy. Despite the extensive participation, there are political elements, mainly from the opposition outside Syria, who criticized the composition of the conference, claiming that it does not represent all sectors of Syrian society.
Ahmed al-Shara stressed in his speech at the conference the importance of preserving Syria’s unity and the need for the state to have exclusive control over weapons.
Syrian Foreign Minister, Assad al-Shibani, used the platform to attack international sanctions and claimed that they were intended to “pressure the will of the Syrian people.”
The new government aims to establish a transitional government next month, which will be, according to the Foreign Minister, “as representative as possible of the Syrian people and respects its diversity.”
Negotiations Between Syria and Russia
After the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and his escape to Moscow, on March 2nd, Russia and Syria began negotiations on the future of their relations. The new Syrian President, Ahmed al-Shara, seeks to change the agreements signed during the Assad era, while maintaining a Russian presence under improved conditions that will include diplomatic assistance and financial compensation. Syria demands the cancellation of debts and the return of funds that were allegedly deposited in Russia, alongside the renewal of fuel, weapons, and wheat supplies.
The UN is Assisting Northern Syria with Over 200 Tons of Food Supplies
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported on March 1st that 31 aid trucks crossed into Syria through the Bab al-Hawa border crossing from Turkey, bringing the total number since the beginning of the year to 506 trucks. The UN is also assisting in clearing rubble in the Idlib area and creating hundreds of temporary jobs.
Syria – Palestinians:
Prohibition of Palestinian Military Infrastructure on Syrian Soil
The new administration in Damascus declared on March 1st that it prohibits Palestinian organizations from establishing military infrastructure on Syrian soil but allows them to maintain only civilian infrastructure.
According to Palestinian sources quoted in the Al-Araby Al-Jadeed newspaper, there are currently no headquarters of Palestinian organizations in Syria, except for the PLO and Fatah. The rest of the activities are those of charities, aid, and social organizations.
It was also reported that there is no military presence of Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Syria, and that their activities are limited to the political, media, and social fields only. The current government even closed the offices that were used by Palestinian organizations in the past.
Houthi Arena
Houthi Threat to Israel if it Returns to Fighting in the Gaza Strip
The leader of the Houthis in Yemen, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, threatened in a statement published on March 1st that the resumption of fighting in the Gaza Strip would lead to “the entire Zionist entity, first and foremost, Tel Aviv, being under fire.” He stressed his movement’s commitment to supporting the Palestinians and warned of serious consequences for Israel if the fighting continues.
