Over the past few days, the rebels in northern Syria have launched a large-scale offensive against the Assad regime’s forces. The offensive, dubbed “deterrence of the aggression,” began on Wednesday (November 27) when the rebel forces began moving towards Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria, in parallel with a secondary effort from the direction of Idlib towards the town of Saraqib and the M5 road (connecting Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and Damascus). The withdrawal of the Syrian regime forces and the Iranian militias resulted in the rebels seizing control of Aleppo and its surrounding areas by Friday night, cutting it off from the M5 highway, and initiating a southward movement towards Hama.
On Friday and Saturday (November 29 and 30), the rebels took control of additional areas east and south of the city of Aleppo and extended their control south along the M5 road to the outskirts of Hama. Parallel to the main effort in the Aleppo-Hama sector, other rebel groups, supported by Turkey, announced the launch of another military operation against Assad’s forces, called Fajr al-Tahrir (Dawn of Liberation). The forces participating in this operation are moving south from the Al-Bab area towards the M4 road (which connects Aleppo with the Deir ez-Zor area), east of Aleppo. Their advancement effectively cut off parts of the Kurdish-controlled territory in eastern Syria.
During the fighting, the rebels took over dozens of villages and towns, as well as several important sites and bases in the Aleppo area, among them those operating within the framework of the CERS Institute, whose activities we reviewed in a special report. The first is Institute 340, located in western Aleppo, and the second is a complex of sites near al-Safira, about 25 kilometers southeast of the city. These sites have been targeted several times in the past in attacks attributed to Israel.
In addition, the rebels from the various factions seized Aleppo’s international airport, the Al-Nirab, Kuweires and Abu Al-Duhur military airports, as well as many military bases, and large amounts of military equipment, including tanks and armored vehicles, planes and helicopters, ammunition depots, artillery cannons, etc.
As of Sunday morning (December 1), the city of Aleppo had fallen almost entirely into the hands of the rebels (except for parts of its northern neighborhoods), and it seems that their forces are expanding the areas under their control to the east, north, and south of the city and the M5 highway. In fact, the rebel forces managed to take control of the provinces of Idlib and Aleppo and moved the front line to the Hama area, cutting off the main road between Damascus and Aleppo. So far, several hundred deaths have been reported among the rebels and the Assad regime, including Russian, Iranian, and other soldiers.
However, the deployment of Syrian army forces, Iranian militias, and significant air support from Russia appears to have halted the rebels’ advance towards Hama in the northern suburbs of Hama. It appears that Russian air support has expanded, and in addition to stopping the advancing rebel forces, the Russian Air Force is also attacking the areas of Aleppo and Idlib.
Alongside these events, reports also surfaced of demonstrations and clashes (some involving gunfire) between regime forces and local residents in the Deraa area in southern Syria. In addition, various reports on social media claim that Russia has ousted Sergei Kissel, the commander of Russian forces in Syria.
The rebel forces’ successful offensive in northern Syria presents the Assad regime, Iran, and the entire Shiite axis with a real dilemma. For Assad, this is the loss of a large territory, including the second most important city in Syria, military bases, and other assets and sites. The loss of Aleppo and its surrounding area is a significant blow to Iran and the Shiite axis, as it serves as a strategic geographic anchor for the entrenchment of the Shiite axis in Syria and for the weapons corridor from Iran, home to numerous ammunition depots, storage sites, and weapons production sites in CERS. This situation is also troublesome for Russia, which seeks to preserve the Assad regime.
Given the aforementioned circumstances, the Assad regime, Iran, and Russia will need to make decisions about their actions, particularly considering their unique circumstances and the limitations each of them encounters.
As mentioned, the rebel attack is being carried out in several military efforts and includes dozens of different rebel organizations. These include various complex organizations and coalitions.
On the rebel side, there are, as mentioned, two main military operations that are currently underway:
Operation “deterrence of aggression” (Reda al-Adwan), led by the Fatah al-Mobin joint operations room, is taking place around Aleppo-Idlib-Hama. The coalition leading the operations is the HTS. The other operation, dubbed “Dawn of Liberation” (Fajr al-Hurriya), is led by Turkish-backed rebels, led by the SNA.
Fatah al-Mubin emblem
HTS (Hiat Tahrir al-Sham) is a coalition of rebel organizations formed in 2017 and is an umbrella organization for dozens of militias. The number of combatants operating within its framework is estimated at several tens of thousands. This coalition controls the entire Idlib region and is operating as a local government.
The leader of the coalition is Abu Muhammad al-Julani, who began his career during the Syrian civil war as the leader of Jabhat al-Nusra, which operated as al-Qaeda’s branch in the country. In 2016, Julani broke away from al-Qaeda and changed the organization’s name to Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. A year later, in 2017, the organization merged with several other rebel organizations under the name HTS. The organizations operating under the HTS are mainly Salafist Islamist Sunnis.
SNA (Syrian National Army) – A coalition of organizations emerged in northern Syria Around 2017, stemming from the moderate forces under the FSA (Free Syrian Army). These organizations are funded, trained, and armed by Turkey. Some of these forces are pro-Turkish. Turkey has also sent fighters from these groups for missions in Libya and elsewhere. Most of the organizations operating in this framework are considered more moderate (compared to the other Islamist forces).
In addition to these rebel forces and regime forces, the Aleppo area also contains Kurdish forces, led by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This is a US backed Kurdish lead coalition of organizations that also includes Arabs, and other minorities. Established in 2015, the SDF has provided assistance to the United States and coalition forces in their war against ISIS.
The Kurdish forces, primarily located in northeastern and eastern Syria, are hostile toward both the Assad regime and Turkey, and the current situation presents them with a significant challenge.
