Who is behind the shooting in Turnejeh, southern Syria, on January 31? Analysis and Implications

On the evening of January 31, a shooting incident occurred near the village of Turnejeh in the Quneitra District (about one kilometer northeast of Jubata al-Khashab). According to the IDF Spokesperson, the shooting was identified by the forces, who responded with fire. It was also reported that there were no casualties among IDF soldiers.

Shortly after the incident, local sources reported that IDF forces entered the village of Turnejeh and arrested two local residents: Kanaan Bakr and Ali Hussein Bakr. Kanaan Bakr is known to be involved in drug smuggling associated with the security apparatus of the Assad regime and Hezbollah. We have previously indicated that Hezbollah and Unit 840 of the Iranian Quds Force enlisted individuals from Shiite families in the Quneitra District for several objectives, including narcotics trafficking and the establishment of terrorist infrastructure, among others.

Several hours post-shooting, an organization identified as the “Islamic Resistance Front in Syria” issued a statement that implied its culpability for the attack, although not explicitly. The statement also said that the gunfire resulted in casualties to IDF soldiers (which is false) and that the assailants successfully escaped the scene.

The language, terminology, and symbols in the claim of responsibility (as well as in additional statements on behalf of the organization) circumstantially strengthen the assessment we made several weeks ago, according to which there is a connection to a Shiite background, Hezbollah, or Iran.

In the statement that referred to the shooting at IDF forces, it was written that the attack was carried out “with appropriate weapons” (الاسلحة المناسبة). This is an expression also known from Hezbollah’s claims of responsibility since October 2023.

In addition, in other posters published on channels related to the organization, the expression “Sahib al-Zaman” (صاحب الزمان) “Master of Time” appeared, which is known as one of the nicknames of the hidden Imam in Shia (the Mahdi), and another poster appeared showing a hand with Qassem Soleimani’s ring, holding a rifle with a red ribbon (a well-known Shi’ite motif identified with Hussein and with revenge).

At the same time, another organization called the “Syrian Popular Resistance” (al-Muqawama a-Sha’abiya a-Suriya) also claimed responsibility for the shooting.

It published a statement claiming that one of the organizations associated with it carried out the operation. The statement said that it was an improvised operation carried out by a decision of field personnel and that heavy machine guns were used. As part of the statement, the organization directly addressed Israel and hinted that it would also begin to act against IDF forces.

The available information suggests that the organization, which was officially established in December 2024, opposes Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, Ahmed al-Shara, and the new regime, and that it has ties to Hezbollah and Iran. In recent weeks, the organization has claimed responsibility for several actions against members of the new regime in several areas in Syria. (We will address this organization in a separate article).

Are we at a point in time where there is a turning point and an escalation in relation to the Israeli presence in the buffer zone in southern Syria?

While in the first weeks after the fall of the Assad regime, almost no voices were heard in Syria opposing IDF actions in the Golan Heights (and those who did address the issue were very moderate in their statements), it seems that in recent weeks there has been a certain change in trend, which is expressed in several aspects.

First, in several villages in the Daraa Governorate, there were demonstrations and incidents of stone-throwing at IDF forces. Second, senior officials in the Syrian regime and local leaders, who until now have been relatively restrained, are now explicitly demanding Israel’s withdrawal back to the border line and calling for international involvement in the matter.

To this can also be added the fact that the attitude towards the IDF in the Syrian media, which was initially relatively neutral, has changed and the IDF is now described as the “occupation army.” Another significant change is the number of threats directed at Israel by various organizations, the most prominent of which were mentioned above.

It is important to note that the Quneitra District lacks significant rebel organizations exerting strong territorial control, in contrast to the Deraa and Suwayda Districts. In addition, the new regime has not yet appointed a permanent governor to the Quneitra District. These circumstances may leave a kind of leadership and governmental vacuum, and there is a fear that it will be filled by hostile elements that will establish themselves in the Golan Heights. Iran and Hezbollah have a great interest in this happening.

The parallel claims of responsibility may have several reasons. First, it is possible that it is a genuine attempt by one of the organizations to take responsibility for the event, while the other organization sought to exploit the event for its own benefit also taking responsibility. Another possibility is that this actually indicates a possible connection between the two organizations.

Another possibility to consider is that this was not a direct attempt to target IDF soldiers but rather an unrelated shooting incident in the area that is not part of terrorist activity (hunting, internal conflicts, criminal event, etc.). Such events are not rare in this area.

At this stage, it remains challenging to ascertain whether the aforementioned organizations possess the operational ability to execute terrorist activities against IDF forces, or if it is merely a part of an information warfare initiative conducted remotely. In any case, the characteristics lead us to a Shiite connection.

Sources

https://t.me/almkaomasy/100

https://t.me/syria_mukawama/4918

https://t.me/syria_mukawama/5710

https://alkhanadeq.org.lb/post/8244

https://t.me/syria_mukawama/4918

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=961825582709540&set=a.567464845478951&locale=ar_AR

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-31-2024

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Popular_Resistance

https://t.me/DAARA_8899/101

https://www.syria.tv/

Picture of Boaz Shapira

Boaz Shapira

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