Report Written by: Yaakov Lappin and Tal Beeri.
Executive Summary
Despite a flurry of international diplomatic activity intended to stabilize the situation on the Israel – Lebanon border and the Israel – Syria border, the basic requirements on Israel’s part for a safe and sustainable withdrawal of the IDF from forward positions in southern Lebanon and southern Syria do not exist for the time being, and it is doubtful whether they will exist in the near future.
In Lebanon, the basic identity of Hezbollah as a Shiite – religious – ideological – armed movement, makes its voluntary disarmament – an Israeli demand and a condition for withdrawal from southern Lebanon – impossible.
Likewise, the Lebanese army does not have the ability to fundamentally, systematically, and truly disarm Hezbollah, even if it and the new Lebanese government have the intentions to do so.
To date, the removal of Hezbollah’s military capabilities has been carried out mainly by a successful Israeli war effort in 2024, in the form of a maneuver, senior leadership assassinations, the beeper operation, and massive aerial attacks.
After the ceasefire agreement, on November 27, 2024, Israel continues to be the only significant factor that prevents Hezbollah from rebuilding its strength, through daily aerial attacks, and according to reports, periodic ground raids.
Hezbollah’s arsenal of weapons is the source of its power and its main value for its patrons in Iran; Giving up what remains of the firepower capabilities, or the intention to rebuild, would be an act of ‘ceasing to be’ for Hezbollah.
In Syria, the new Sunni regime under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa is driven by the main goal of re-establishing centralized state sovereignty over all parts of the country.
This goal directly conflicts with Israel’s supreme security demands for an expanded and demilitarized southern-Syrian buffer zone, which includes the territories south of Damascus.
This demand became absolute in light of the fact that al-Sharaa’s new national army is composed in large part of militias and among them, ‘former’ jihad operatives, who in March and July 2025 carried out a massacre of the Alawite minority in northwestern Syria and the Druze minority in al-Suwayda in southern Syria.
The presence of the IDF in five outposts in southern Lebanon, and in nine positions on the Syrian side of the 1974 separation of forces line is not a temporary bargaining chip, but a necessary and long-term security position, adopted in the face of a diplomatically unsolvable reality, since both Hezbollah and the al-Sharaa regime do not intend to fulfill the Israeli conditions for withdrawals from the two northern fronts.
Any diplomatic process that tries to ignore this fundamental conflict is doomed to failure.
This conclusion is given added weight in light of Israel’s new security doctrine, which emphasizes the objective of removing the enemy’s capabilities as a top priority, and rules out the approach of containment, restraint, or buying quiet by ignoring the building of strength of jihadist elements on Israel’s borders, as a direct lesson from the October 7 attack by Hamas.
One Response
Dear Yaakov and Tal,
I fully agree that all Israeli outposts in Lebanon and Syria are Israeli security requirements. All Hezbollah, Muslim Brotherhood, Isis and any other terrorist groups must be outlawed, disarmed and eliminated from both countries before any consideration of withdrawal is possible.
The enforcement of justice is a moral imperative. Israel is the ONLY force of justice in the Syria-Israel-Lebanon tri-state borders area that has taken on the role to prevent genocidal terrorism. As your reporting indicates, both the Lebanese and Syrian regimes are at best complicit with genocidal terrorists, and at worst are likely guilty of supporting and/or committing direct acts of genocidal terrorism. We cannot condone nor tolerate this evil to exist. We cannot stand in denial and delusion while genocidal evil regrows in Lebanon and Syria! Never Again!