From October 8, 2023, when Hezbollah started the war against Israel on the northern border, until October 1, 2024, when the Israeli ground maneuver in Lebanon began, Hezbollah carried out 3,235 attacks against Israel on the northern border, accounting for the absolute majority of these attacks.
87% of the attacks against Israel were carried out within 0-5 kilometers from the border. This compares with the previous report we published on July 1, 2024, when the percentage of attacks with a range of 0-5 km was 94.3%. In recent months, Hezbollah has increased Hezbollah’s fire into areas further than 5 km from the border, areas that are not evacuated, and some areas deep inside Israel.
5% of the attacks occurred in regions located 5 to 10 kilometers from the border.
4% of the attacks occurred in regions located 10 to 20 kilometers from the border.
2.7% of the attacks occurred in regions situated 20-40 km from the border.
0.77% of the attacks occurred in regions situated over 50 kilometers away from the border.
Har Dov emerged as the military zone with the highest frequency of attacks, recording a total of at least 448 incidents.
The civilian areas that experienced the highest frequency of attacks were Kiryat Shmona, with 69 incidents, followed by Metula with 67 incidents, and Manara with 61 incidents.
The number of attacks does not include the number of munitions fired in each attack.
The increase in rocket fire into non-evacuated regions and the extension of Hezbollah’s range of fire has been persistent since the start of the war. The July 2024 summary report highlighted Hezbollah’s ongoing escalation of rocket fire into non-evacuated regions, while the factor influencing Hezbollah’s policy was the eliminations of senior figures and attacks in depth and quality in Lebanon. This corresponded with Hezbollah’s heightened frequency of attacks in reaction to the IDF as the conflict persisted.
However, it is evident that the significant upward trend in rocket launched to non-evacuated areas occurred in September 2024, when Hezbollah carried out 160 attacks into these areas, an increase of 355%.
Since the beginning of September till September 17, 2024, Hezbollah had carried out 33 attacks targeting non-evacuated areas. From September 17 to September 30, Hezbollah carried out 127 attacks on non-evacuated areas. September 17, 2024, the day of the pager attack, attributed to Israel, is a turning point in the conduct and policy vis-à-vis Hezbollah, and accordingly, we see the change in Hezbollah’s attacks against Israel.
September 17, 2024 signifies the conclusion of Israel’s “active defense” strategy and the shift to an aggressive approach. On September 19, 2024, the IDF initiated Operation “Northern Arrows,” targeting Hezbollah rocket launchers and weapons depots across Lebanon, as well as executing targeted eliminations of prominent Hezbollah military leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah and the heads of the military wing and the Radwan unit. On October 1, 2024, a demarcated ground operation by IDF soldiers commenced in southern Lebanon.
The data presented on the map is based on Hezbollah’s claims of responsibility and other information from open sources. There may be missing unpublished information. Each area attacked is indicated as a point on the map. The colors of the dots (“heat map”) represent the number of attack incidents on each area. Additional information that does not appear on the map is the interceptions of unmanned ariel vehicles, which in many cases the interception location is unknown, and therefore we were unable to indicate them on the map. However, the purpose of the map is to present as broad a picture as possible of Hezbollah’s attacks against Israel on the northern border.
