On October 1, at 21:31, a Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Ghalbun (“The Triumph” / “Victors”) Telegram channel posted a new video, which was actually edited from a number of well-known videos that had already been published. This Telegram channel is very active and has about 12.5 thousand followers. During the video, two headlines written in Arabic and Hebrew can be discerned: “This is how the response will be” (in Hebrew it was mistakenly written in reversal of letters) and “One Arena” (in Hebrew it was mistakenly written “One Courtyard”). This is, of course, referring to the narrative of “unification of the arenas.”
At the end of the video, a verse from the Quran (Tradition of Al-Hajj, 22, verses 39-40) is written, which Nasrallah used in his July 2022 speech. Through this verse, Nasrallah actually provides a religious justification (in addition to the ideological justification) to go to war: “God help the Muslims who are fighting against those who have wronged them…”
After Nasrallah’s speech, from July 2022 until now, a variety of offensive activities against Israel were carried out, including the launch of UAVs, an IED in Megiddo Junction, the firing of rockets towards the Galilee, and the fire of two anti-tank missiles near the village of Ghajar. In addition, other provocations were carried out, including the reinforcement of Hezbollah positions (“green without borders”) along the fence, the placement of tents beyond the blue line in the vicinity of Kfar Shuba, crossing the blue line, skirmishes with IDF soldiers, damage to the border fence, and other actions.
As we have noted and analyzed in a number of publications, Hezbollah is interested in dragging Israel into the conflict. In July 2023, Nasrallah spoke and raised the level of threats around the issue of Ghajar, the Shebaa Farms and the hills of Kfar Shuba.
On October 2, Nasrallah once again addressed the dispute over the land border with Israel. Nasrallah reiterated the three main issues in this context: the points occupied by the enemy that Lebanon wants to liberate, northern Ghajar and the Shebaa Farms and the mountains of Kfar Shuba. Nasrallah added that the issue of mediation was the responsibility of the Lebanese state and that the focus would be on northern Ghajar. In any case, Nasrallah stressed that “we will not compromise on our water and land rights, and any step that leads to the liberation of the land will be in cooperation between the state and the resistance.” In other words, Hezbollah has the last word…
Although the current video (from October 01) is part of Hezbollah’s propaganda war, apparently it was not published at random timing and the messages that emerge from it do not appear in a “vacuum.”
The relative “quiet” may be misleading. Very misleading. It is possible that Hezbollah is interested in cultivating and exploiting the “atmosphere of mediation” under the responsibility of the Lebanese state as a diversion, while at the same time continuing to try to carry out operations against Israel and continue to “push the envelope,” which could drag Israel into a confrontation it considers desirable.
When Hezbollah realized (and, in our opinion, was surprised) that its actions over the past year would not lead to a confrontation with Israel, it may have decided to pursue a slightly different strategy: while Israel, in our opinion, is interested in focusing on mediation efforts, Hezbollah will keep building up its forces near the border and prepare for an inevitable confrontation later. All of this while assuming that Israel will continue to “turn a blind eye” to the buildup since it is interested in the success of the negotiations within the framework of mediation.
The statements of Wafiq Safa, who is in head of Hezbollah’s coordination and liaison unit, in an interview with Iran’s Tasnim News Agency (September 26), show Israel’s determination to succeed in the negotiations: “The Israelis were angry about the tents (tents Hezbollah had erected in the vicinity of Kfar Shuba, crossing the blue line) and approached UNIFIL. The Israelis stated they would come at 8 a.m. to remove them, but then moved it to 10 a.m., then 12 p.m., and finally 3 p.m. Finally, the Israelis stated that they would leave the tent evacuation to discussions…”
According to Safa’s remarks, Hezbollah understood exactly what Israel wanted. Hezbollah, for one, knew exactly how to exploit this.
