Hezbollah – Intensity and Range Analysis of Attacks Against Israel (October 8, 2023, to July 1, 2024)

Since Hezbollah initiated conflict against Israel on the northern border on October 8, 2023, and until July 1, 2024, there have been 2,295 attacks against Israel in the north, with the vast majority implemented by Hezbollah:

 94.3% of the attacks against Israel were carried out within 0-5 km from the border.

3.1%  of the attacks were within 5-10 km from the border.

 1.9%of the attacks were within 10-20 km from the border.

 0.65%of the attacks were within 20-30 km from the border.

0.05% of the attacks were above 30 km from the border.

The military area attacked with the highest intensity is the Mount Dov region and its outposts, with a total of 265 attack incidents. Hezbollah executes daily attacks in this area.

Regarding civilian targets, the communities most frequently attacked were Metula with 49 incidents, Kiryat Shmona with 45 incidents, and Manara with 30 incidents.

It is important to note that we count the number of attack incidents – and not the number of munitions fired in each incident, which may explain why these numbers might appear lower than the perceived impact.

The data indicates that Hezbollah’s attacks against Israel are mostly limited to the area close to the border. When Hezbollah extends its attack range beyond 5 km, it usually occurs as part of its response within its ‘pain equation’ framework to IDF strikes in Lebanon. A good example from the past month is the elimination of the commander of the Nasser Unit on the southern front, Taleb Abdallah (Abu Taleb). This assassination was met with a series of retaliatory attacks by Hezbollah, which lasted three days, during which Hezbollah carried out several attacks beyond the 5 km range, including attacks on the Miron base, bases in the Golan Heights, and the Ami’ad area.

Additionally, the furthest attack from the border conducted by Hezbollah was against the Sky Dew missile defense aerostat site in the Tiberias area (on May 15, 2024). This too was in response to the elimination of senior Hezbollah member Hussain Ibrahim, head of intelligence on Hezbollah’s Southern Front.

In this manner, Hezbollah preserves the equation that the more painful the Israeli strike is to it, the more intense Hezbollah’s response will be deep within Israel and against higher-quality targets.

The geographic delineation of the campaign between Hezbollah and Israel is also evident in IDF strikes in Lebanon since the war began.[i] The main Israeli effort has been focused on destroying Hezbollah’s infrastructure in the villages along the border, primarily those located a few kilometers from the border fence.

Since the beginning of the war, there have been 20 rocket launch events from the Syrian area towards the Israeli Golan Heights. The area attacked with the highest intensity is the Keshat area on the Golan Heights, an area targeted by at least four rocket launch events from Syria. No organization has claimed responsibility for the attacks from Syria. We assess that it is highly likely that these are Palestinian organizations, possibly Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives. These operatives may have come from Damascus or even been sent from Lebanon to carry out the attacks

The information presented on the map is based on Hezbollah’s responsibility claims and additional data from open sources. It is possible that some information has not been published. Every attacked area is marked as a point on the map. The colors of the points (heat map) represent the number of attack events on each area. Additional information not shown on the map includes UAV interceptions – in many cases the interception location is unknown, making it difficult to mark them on the map. However, the map aims to present as broad a picture as possible of Hezbollah’s attacks against Israel on the northern border.

[i] https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/idf-press-releases-regarding-the-hamas-israel-war/march-24-pr/operational-summary-of-activities-in-the-northern-front-over-the-past-5-months/