Will Hezbollah exploit the current events (January 26) to influence its proxy in the Lebanese Army (Shia commanders and soldiers) to open fire against IDF forces?
According to a statement from the Lebanese Army, a soldier was killed and two were injured as a result of IDF gunfire due to the current events in southern Lebanon.
In August 2010, a force from the Lebanese Army’s 11th Infantry Brigade carried out a planned and initiated sniper attack on an IDF force that was on the Israeli side near the Lebanese village of Adaysseh in southern Lebanon. Two IDF officers were killed. The Lebanese Army falsely claimed at the time that the IDF force had crossed the Blue Line. The IDF responded with counter-fire, and the Lebanese Army suffered casualties.
This incident served Hezbollah’s narrative well. The then-leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, referred to the incident and described the Lebanese Army’s actions as heroic. Nasrallah claimed that the event “baptized with blood” the model of the army-people-resistance equation and that Hezbollah forces operate in full coordination with the Lebanese Army…
From Nasrallah’s statements, it could be inferred that Hezbollah was somehow involved in the decision to carry out the shooting.
It is possible that in light of the injury to Lebanese Army soldiers and the harm to Shia who entered restricted villages, Hezbollah might act to encourage a physical response from Lebanese Army soldiers (who would essentially act as a proxy) against the IDF, which would lead to further escalation.
For Hezbollah, this is an ideal situation at the moment for the following reasons: active military resistance to the presence of IDF forces in Lebanese territory, Hezbollah does not “pull the trigger” so it is not exposed to retaliation, it serves the narrative of the equation optimally, and international pressure would accelerate Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanese territory.
