As expected, the issue of the maritime border between Lebanon and Israel continues to be the main issue that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah communicates in his speeches.
Until June 2022, Nasrallah and other senior Hezbollah figures claimed that Hezbollah’s policy was not to intervene in the matter and that the decision regarding the maritime border was the sole responsibility of the Lebanese state. In his speech on June 09, 2022, following the positioning of the Karish gas rig on June 5, 2022, Nasrallah changed his approach and made it clear that this step was to be considered an attack on Lebanon. Nasrallah began to portray a new equation, stating that this act was a de facto occupation of Lebanese land and assets on Israel’s part. Nasrallah made it clear that this subject is in the Lebanese national interest, seeing that the income deriving from the gas field would go to the state, thus contributing to the Lebanese coffers, enabling it to get out of its financial plight. Therefore, all Lebanese must show national responsibility, fight for their rights and prevent it from the Zionist enemy. Nasrallah compared the maritime border issue to the “liberation” of south Lebanon from Israel.
Nasrallah stated that Hezbollah would serve as a “resistance” and “defender of Lebanon” and mentioned the triangular equation of the Lebanese army, the Lebanese people, and the Lebanese resistance. Nasrallah made it clear in this speech that the resistance and Lebanon do not want war but want Lebanon’s oil and gas to remain in Lebanese hands, and therefore they are not afraid of war, and the Israeli enemy must understand this. Nasrallah made it clear that Hezbollah was not a party to the negotiations and would not be part of them and that the resolution was in the hands of the president, the prime minister, and the head of the parliament.
https://video.moqawama.org/details.php?cid=1&linkid=2436
(Note: For more information, see our article presenting an overview of the Lebanese position in the negotiations vis-à-vis the Israeli position, what are the circumstances and what are the scenarios that could lead to a military escalation:
Since June and until now, it is evident that significant progress has been made in the negotiations between Israel and Lebanon. However, on June 29 and July 2, Israel intercepted altogether 4 UAVs launched by Hezbollah at the Karish gas rig as a hint of Hezbollah’s capability and as a threatening message to Israel’s infrastructure assets.
On July 13, Nasrallah gave his annual speech marking the anniversary of the outbreak of the Second Lebanon War in 2006. Nasrallah intensified and expanded the threat to Israel regarding maritime borders and gas resources. He began his speech with verses from the Quran, the tradition of Al-Hajj (22), from verses 39 to 40. These verses mean Allah will help Muslims fight those who do injustice to them. This quote may indicate his impending intentions…
In his speech, Nasrallah stressed the Israeli-American project intended to isolate Iran and the attempt to unite Arab countries against Iran. He linked this to President Biden’s recent visits to the Middle East, emphasizing Israel and Saudi Arabia. He also noted that Biden’s visit was against the backdrop of the gas and oil crisis, so Lebanon must protect its rights.
Nasrallah made it clear that the oil and gas issue was in Lebanon’s national interest to bail it out of economic collapse. He stated that the war in Ukraine is forcing Europe and the U.S. to look for alternative oil and gas resources. Hence it is an opportunity for Lebanon. He claimed that Lebanon’s window of opportunity is within a time frame of the next two months, i.e., by September, when Israel will already commence the production of gas, it would be too late.
According to Nasrallah, the Lebanese government is conducting the negotiations and is responsible for marking the borders with Israel. Hezbollah does not intervene, but by utilizing its military power, Hezbollah is helping to strengthen the Lebanese negotiation position with Israel.
Nasrallah called on the Lebanese government to exert the organization’s power and status for the benefit of the negotiations. Hence the UAVS were launched at the Karish field. Hezbollah will take any step it sees fit to support Lebanon in the negotiations, and launching the UAVs was only the beginning; Hezbollah will not sit idly by.
At the end of his speech, Nasrallah enhanced his messages and threatened that if Lebanon did not receive its rights and portion of the gas, Israel would also not receive its part and would be dragged into war. He made it clear that it is better to die as a martyr in a war than to die of starvation from the economic situation that Lebanon is facing because after war, there is a prospect but after an economic collapse, there is nothing.
Nasrallah used a phrase from his famous speech from the Second Lebanon War in 2006 regarding the range of Hezbollah’s missiles, saying that “Karish ma ba’ad Karish, u’ma ba’ad ba’ad Karish,” meaning that Hezbollah can attack and hit Karish gas field and any other Israeli assets in Israeli territory.
https://video.moqawama.org/details.php?cid=1&linkid=2437
How does the verse from the Quran with which Nasrallah opened his speech relate to this situation? It’s Nasrallah’s view that the Arab people, emphasizing Islamists, are disadvantaged and oppressed. The West, led by the United States and Israel, is trying to preserve this situation. Hezbollah as the defender of Lebanon, will receive the help of Allah and will be able to stand up to the oppressors.
Is there really a transition in Nasrallah’s approach and policy? From an approach that accepts all the Lebanese government decisions regarding the issue of gas and maritime borders to an approach saying that if Lebanon’s demands and rights are not accepted, Hezbollah will take the necessary steps to implement them.
In our assessment, the change in attitude and policy stems from Nasrallah’s desire to preserve and uphold Hezbollah’s interests and those of Iran. Nasrallah may have speculated that he might lose control if he does not take an offensive approach (both verbally and operationally) and does not take matters into his own hands. This is in addition to his desire to preserve his main narrative: to turn the issue into a symbol of resistance towards the continuity of the organization’s being the defender of Lebanon, attentive to its needs and interests.
“Going all the way” or “pushing the boundaries”? It is possible that Nasrallah is interested in “going all the way” and starting a war with Israel by September when the pretext is the maritime border and gas fields. On the other hand, Nasrallah may be pursuing a policy of “stretching the boundaries,” taking offensive actions that, in his view, Israel will contain and not respond to for its reasons (such as political instability and the pending elections).
What are the Iranian and Hezbollah interests behind the current policy, as expressed in Nasrallah’s last speech, perhaps even the waging of a war against Israel?
Hezbollah’s interests:
- Continuing to perpetuate that it is an organization that possesses weapons in contravention of the Ta’ef agreement and making it clear that the organization shall not be disarmed.
- An excuse for opposing the “Zionist occupation” and continuing the armed struggle against Israel. The “resistance” is the means of power that the Lebanese government should use as leverage over Israel.
- A message to the internal Lebanese arena: Hezbollah is the defender of Lebanon and its economic interests. Hezbollah cares for the Lebanese people, including all its 18 religions and communities.
- Due to the elections and the expected establishment of a new government in Lebanon, Hezbollah means to pressure the Lebanese government and the Lebanese state. Launching the UAVs toward the Karish gas rig also poses a threat to the Lebanese government, i.e., if the Lebanese government agrees to the American mediator’s proposals and surrenders to Israel’s demands, as far as Hezbollah is concerned, this constitutes a pretext for war. Hezbollah is driving the Lebanese government to harden its positions so that Hezbollah will not drag Lebanon into another war.
Iranian interests:
- A regional message: Conveying a message that Hezbollah is ready to start a war. The goal is to lash out at the normalization process between Israel and the Arab countries and the “regional defense alliance” formed under U.S. auspices. A war may lead to a freeze on this normalization process in light of the destruction of Lebanon and “Arab solidarity.”
- An international message in the nuclear context: an additional means of pressure vis-à-vis the U.S. in the context of the nuclear agreement. If the nuclear deal does not progress, the Middle East will “burn”…
- An international message in the context of the maritime arena: the balance in the Middle East will be violated. A threat to maritime lines and a threat to the ability to produce oil and gas that Europe is interested in as an alternative to Russian energy.
Is the headline “Accepting our rights or a war,” as published on July 14 in the Al-Akhbar newspaper (Hezbollah’s well-known media mouthpiece) the day after Nasrallah’s speech, really true? Do the Lebanese people and government think like Nasrallah?
Not sure at all. The economic, social, medical, and infrastructural implications and consequences on the Lebanese state deriving from a possible war are enormous, and even then, it is not certain that Lebanon will receive its demands but might reach the same results if they diverted to the diplomatic direction. As in 2006, there is a chance that Nasrallah will drag Lebanon into a war with Israel, in which only the Lebanese side will lose.
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Flash Point: Hezbollah Drone attacks on the Karish Gas field, a small piece of a larger game
By Stephen E Hughes
In June 2022, Israel began work at the Karish oil field through a vessel operated by London-based Energean. Energean Power, floating production storage and offloading vessel (FPSO), took up position fifty miles off Israel’s northern coast and is due to start production in September of this year.
On July 2, Hezbollah launched three unarmed drones toward the vessel, which Israel intercepted. A fourth one was intercepted over the Mediterranean Sea a week ago, with security sources estimating that the drones headed for Karish.
The dispute is focused on a potentially gas-rich, 330-square-mile area of the Mediterranean Sea off Israel and Lebanon. The revenues from future natural gas production there could reach billions of dollars.
Iran – Hezbollah axis is promoting itself in control of Lebanon and Karish Gas fields. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah warned that “no one” would be allowed to operate in maritime oil and gas fields if Lebanon was barred from its “rights” in extracting from areas off its own coast. He hinted at further attacks, saying his group has military capacities on land, in the air, and at sea and could simultaneously deploy a “large number” of weaponized drones. In addition, Nasrallah Blames Israel for Lebanon’s Economic Conditions: 2021 U.N. report seventy-eight percent of Lebanon’s population is now living in poverty, an urgent humanitarian crisis facing the country. Lebanon is in the throes of one of the world’s worst economic meltdowns, according to the World Bank, with the local lira losing 90% of its value since 2019.
Hezbollah created a convoluted state-within-a-state system using the country’s resources to support its Shiite base. The economy has collapsed, and the government has endured endemic corruption, mismanagement, and a banking scandal. The currency lost most of its value, and services from trash collection to electricity failed.
Iran’s Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah gave a date with next war with Israel, “ he declared that if Lebanon’s economic water rights are undermined, he would go to war”. He even set a deadline: September 2022. Nasrallah threatened “Karish and beyond Karish,” echoing a statement he made a few weeks before a month-long conflict with Israel in 2006 when he threatened “Haifa and beyond Haifa.” Several countries have intervened to secure a solution before September, especially the U.S. and France.
The Israel Defense Forces expects that some 1,500 rockets could be fired from Lebanon per day in a potential war. The assessments are being put to the test during an ongoing monthlong exercise dubbed “Chariots of Fire.”
It is estimated that Hezbollah has an approximate total of around 150,000 missiles/rockets in its arsenal: a. Tens of thousands of short-range missiles/rockets. b. Between hundreds and thousands of medium-range missiles. c. Dozens of long-range missiles. D. Some 2,000 drones.
Long established as the backbone of Iran’s IRGC drone program, Lebanese Hezbollah trains cadres from Yemen’s Houthis and other proxies while constructing drones at its facilities using parts smuggled in from Iran via Syria. Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, boasted of his organization’s ability in this area , saying that Hezbollah uses drones to transform its missiles into precision-guided weapons. Despite Nasrallah’s flaunting, however, Iran is behind most of the party’s drones.
According to a recent YouTube video, the “Abu Mahdi anti-ship cruise missile” can be seen briefly. “The latest Hezbollah video shows a peek of what is probably an Abu-Mahdi anti-ship cruise missile launcher,” claims the Twitter account that discovered this image. As a result, Iran has reportedly given Hezbollah weapons with a 1,000 km range.
Due to its range, it may potentially penetrate far into the Eastern Mediterranean, endangering a NATO naval support base in Souda Bay, Crete. This indicates that it is a strategic weapon that, in the event of a confrontation, might endanger a much larger area than Israel.
Surface-to-sea (Anti-ship) /cruise missiles. Hezbollah has Chinese C-802 anti-ship missiles that were used in 2006 on an Israeli ship. They have a top speed of Mach 0.9, a range of 120 kilometers (nearly 75 miles), and 165-kilogram warheads.
Hezbollah’s Naval Unit is relatively tiny, departmentalized, and elite. We estimate its workforce (which is unknown) at a few hundred operatives. Hezbollah’s Naval Unit likely possesses Russian “Yakhount” missiles (P-800 Oniks Supersonic Cruise Missile). This missile has a range of 300 kilometers and can reach a top speed of Mach 2.6..
Iran has managed to transfer Iranian-made Surface-to-sea /cruise missiles to Hezbollah. Hezbollah’s Naval Unit likely possesses “Noor” and “Netzer” missiles. The “Noor” is an Iranian anti-ship missile with a range of 120-220 kilometers and is considered an advanced version of the Chinese C-802 missile. The “Netzer” is a Pakistani missile that can travel at nearly the speed of sound and destroy targets that weigh up to 3000 tons.
Submarines. The unit likely has midget Iranian “Ghadir” submarines, which can be up to 29-meters long and can fit 10-18 commando operatives. The unit also uses “torpedo/kamikaze submarines”, midget submarines that can be launched, and either fire torpedoes or be used as a kamikaze weapon.
Yemen’s Houthi rebels, led by Iran, have deployed suicide bombers in small boats to blow up large Saudi vessels in their fight against a Saudi-led coalition.
Tehran has successfully undermined Lebanon’s ability to reach an Israeli agreement on a maritime border vital to Lebanon’s economy and its citizens, despite Israel’s intentions to advance negotiations to resolve the issue.
Lebanon is locked in U.S.-mediated talks with Israel to delineate a shared maritime border that would help determine which oil and gas resources belong to which country. It is worth noting Israel has not violated any Lebanese offshore borders.
U.S. energy envoy Amos Hochstein is mediating between the Israeli and Lebanese governments, which are technically in a state of war and have yet to make a breakthrough during years of stop-start diplomacy on this issue. Biden’s visit to Israel on July 13-14, Lapid told Amos Hochstein, the U.S. mediator in the Israel-Lebanon maritime border talks, that Israel would like to accelerate the pace of negotiations and reach an agreement with Lebanon as soon as possible. The negotiations are more complicated because Lebanon doesn’t officially recognize Israel.
Lebanese President Michel Aoun told a visiting U.S. delegation of think tank experts he does want to get a deal on the maritime border while keeping the situation on the border with Israel stable.
But will Washington help? Washington now has one of the anti-Israel governments in U.S. history. For example, in early 2022, The Biden administration abruptly withdrew American support for the Eastern Mediterranean (EastMed) pipeline, a project aimed at shipping natural gas from Israel to European markets. On many fronts, the Biden Administration has caved into Iranian demands for the sake of a new Iran deal. Tehran still stands to gain tens of billions of dollars, with or without a new Iran deal. The Biden administration rescinded former president Donald Trump’s restoration of U.N. sanctions on Iran.
Right before the Presidential elections, Biden released his list of fundraising bundlers. In an exclusive story, Front Page Magazine’s investigation revealed that they included Jamal Abdi, the executive director of NIAC Action. The National Iranian American Council (NIAC), often described as the Iran Lobby, claimed its members had run phone banks and donated $385,000 to Biden. In 2007, Joe Biden became one of only 22 senators to vote against designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization.
Biden has ended the Trump administration’s policies of strong support for Israel and vigorous opposition of Iran. John Kerry, who has a seat on Biden’s National Security Council, has passed U.S. intelligence information on Israeli defense activities to Tehran. Secretary of State, Tony Blinken is an opponent of designating the IRGC a terrorist group.
Current U.S. energy envoy Amos Hochstein is not hosting any talks between Israel and Lebanon and will not do so for a few weeks. Hochstein has his hands full with the U.S. energy crisis.
Regime’s IRGC-Quds Force: Threat From Proxy Naval Units
Nasrallah’s continual media onslaught is designed to obscure and delegitimize Israeli maritime borders with Lebanon, promoting the false premise Israel is stealing Lebanese natural gas. With this media blitz, any Hezbollah or other actors’ assaults on Israeli Karish Gas field production can be justified to the international community
Since early 2021, and more so since August 2021, when Ebrahim Raisi took office as the new president of the Iranian regime, Tehran has stepped up its maritime terrorist operations using its foreign mercenaries and proxy forces, especially the Houthis of Yemen.” The IRGC Quds Force have been conducting training sessions in Iran, offering specialized naval courses for mercenaries & proxy forces from Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and several countries in East Africa to give them the expertise to form naval units in their home countries and expand the regime’s terrorist activities across the region via its proxy forces.
These foreign forces are then organized in naval commando battalions, which are deployed in the Arabian Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea.
A new Quds Naval force is based at the Khamenei Academy of Naval Sciences and Technology in Ziba Kenar on the Caspian coast, which is overseen by Second Admiral Abdolreza Dabestani. But it is Brig Gen Hassan Ali Zamani Pajooh who oversees the unit’s main aim – to provide commando training to foreign forces, which is conducted through comprehensive six-month residential courses. That commando training is being supplemented by additional, maritime courses on Qeshm and Farah Islands in the Gulf – provided by the same IRGC Aba Abdullah naval commando brigade responsible for attacks on British oil tankers.
The IRGC’s use of proxies, such as the Houthis and Iraqi Shiite militia groups such as the Kata’ib Hezbollah, (Iranian-backed, Iraqi Shia paramilitary organization with ancillary operations in Syria) to launch drone strikes gives it a measure of plausible deniability.
Tehran’s regional geostrategy is to prevent the growth and economic viability of the Karish Gas field and future developments for Israel. Offshore natural gas discoveries in the Levant Basin can significantly alter energy supply dynamics in the eastern Mediterranean region. The unarmed drone attacks were tactically employed as an opening move to drive away investors and drive down stock value and force Israel to realize it would be spending hundreds of millions of dollars on security measures.
I believe the Iran – Hezbollah axis will not go into a full-blown attack on Israel; Tehran does not want to lose its billion-dollar military investment in Hezbollah, as a military response from Israel would be devastating. The Islamic Republic is avoiding repeating the 2006 war with Israel, especially with Beirut’s ongoing economic and political crises. Tehran risks Hezbollah drove out and Lebanon. Tehran’s geostrategic land-air corridor runs from Iran, Iraq, and Syria to Lebanon and the East Mediterranean. Lebanon is the strategic land-air corridor anchor point.
The Islamic Republic needs its financial resources for its growing nuclear weaponization endeavors and its continued military build-up of its MENA & international proxy forces.
IRGC is heavily investing several billion dollars in Iran’s armed forces, missiles, cruise missiles, drones, naval, and space projects. There are Iran’s high economic expenditures for fighting in Syria and backing the al Houthi of Yemen war against Saudi Arabia.
Al Houthi of Yemen ballistic-cruise missile and drone capabilities al Houthi are some of the deadliest in the Mid-East region, built with the hands of the IRGC (Two major IRGC-affiliated companies- Quds Aerospace Industries and Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industries (HESA)) and funding from Tehran.
Hezbollah’s drone attacks on the Karish gas field, which is located within Israeli territorial waters, was a message to the Lebanese government to maintain its resolve and demand that the maritime border between the two countries be moved south to include Karish and other potential gas reservoirs in Lebanese territory.
Hezbollah’s actions were intended to further not only Iranian ambitions but also the group’s own aspirations. Foreign businesses may be deterred from investing in the region if tensions surrounding the maritime boundary conflict rise, which is designed persuade Biden’s Washington to support Hezbollah more strongly,
I believe the Iran – Hezbollah axis will not go into a full-blown attack on Israel; Tehran does not want to lose its billion-dollar military investment in Hezbollah, as a military response from Israel would be devastating. The Islamic Republic is avoiding repeating the 2006 war with Israel, especially with Beirut’s ongoing economic and political crises. Tehran risks Hezbollah drove out and Lebanon. Tehran’s geostrategic land-air corridor runs from Iran, Iraq, and Syria to Lebanon and the East Mediterranean. Lebanon is the strategic land-air corridor anchor point.
The Islamic Republic needs its financial resources for its growing nuclear weaponization endeavors and its continued military build-up of its MENA & international proxy forces.
IRGC is heavily investing several billion dollars in Iran’s armed forces, missiles, cruise missiles, drones, naval, and space projects. There are Iran’s high economic expenditures for fighting in Syria and backing the al Houthi of Yemen war against Saudi Arabia.
Al Houthi of Yemen ballistic-cruise missile and drone capabilities al Houthi are some of the deadliest in the Mid-East region, built with the hands of the IRGC (Two major IRGC-affiliated companies- Quds Aerospace Industries and Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industries (HESA)) and funding from Tehran.
Hezbollah’s drone attacks on the Karish gas field, which is located within Israeli territorial waters, was a message to the Lebanese government to maintain its resolve and demand that the maritime border between the two countries be moved south to include Karish and other potential gas reservoirs in Lebanese territory.
Tehran’s -Hezbollah’s actions were intended to further not only Iranian ambitions but also the group’s own aspirations. Foreign businesses may be deterred from investing in the region if tensions surrounding the maritime boundary conflict rise, which is designed persuade Biden’s Washington to support Hezbollah more strongly.
The IRGC has been making changes to military warfare doctrine, to defensive/deterrent strategy by incorporating an offensive component through the use of hybrid warfare. The “forward defense” philosophy suggests to avoid internal conflict, Iran should engage its adversaries outside of its boundaries. According to the “forward defense” theory, a war between Iran and its enemies should be fought outside of Iranian territory. The hybrid nature of this doctrine and its offensive strategy are best illustrated by its use of proxies, drone and naval guerilla warfare, as well as cyber.
However, there are real threats to the Israeli Karish field gas production and its Leviathan gas fields. The Islamic Republic of Iran has spent billions to wipe Israel off the map; it will grasp any opportunity to cause suffering and economic damage to Israel. More than likely, assaults on the Leviathan gas field will come from Iranian proxy forces; this way, Tehran can maintain deniability. We must consider the Islamic Republic’s buildup and expanding proxy and mercenary naval forces to this emerging asymmetrical warfare threat.