By: Tal Be’eri and Dana Polak
Our evaluation indicates that, at present, the IDF’s operations have effectively diminished the risk of ground infiltration by the Radwan unit in its intended form. Furthermore, we believe that the likelihood of executing an infiltration plan on a more restricted scale is equally minimal (involving “merely a few” dozen to hundreds of operatives inside a confined geographical area).
We assess that the above two outlines no longer constitute a clear and present danger.
At the same time, it is important to acknowledge the potential for limited infiltration by small teams of individual operatives across the entire sector. This option will always persist.
Since the onset of the war, the IDF has concentrated on undermining the capabilities and infrastructure of the Radwan unit, resulting in the elimination of 31 senior members, including acting unit commander Wassam al-Tawil and his successors. Those eliminated included high-ranking individuals in both field and staff roles: nine regional commanders (equivalent to brigade commanders), senior commanders and operatives, as well as top officials within the unit’s headquarters and the missile and rocket array.
On September 20, 2024, in a precision airstrike on the Dahiyeh in Beirut, the IDF eliminated Ibrahim Aqil, the head of operations of Hezbollah, to whom the Radwan force is subject. The attack occurred as Aqil was engaged in a conference with leaders of the Radwan unit. Fifteen key leaders inside Radwan’s command structure were eliminated in this strike.
The primary objective of the Radwan force is to attack Israel and conquer the Galilee. Within the organizational structure, one can observe the commanders responsible for the designated attack zones, who were tasked with orchestrating the incursion into Galilee via six distinct regions: the coastline area, Qana, Bint Jbeil, Hajir, al-Khiam, and Har Dov.
Throughout the previous year and during the ongoing ground maneuver, as of this writing, the IDF has effectively diminished the capabilities and competency of the Radwan force. With the move to eliminate senior members of the unit and the inflicting of harsh damage to many underground infrastructures, weapons depots, and equipment, the unit’s preparedness infrastructure for an eruptive ground penetration activity against Israel was damaged and thwarted.
