The Destruction of the Syrian Army’s Weapons and the Israeli Presence in the Buffer Zone

Necessary Actions to Thwart a Clear and Immediate Threat to Israel

On December 08, 2024, Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapsed in Syria, after 54 years in which the Assad family ruled the country. On November 27, the rebel organizations in the Idlib enclave, in northwestern Syria, launched a surprise attack, backed by Turkey, and within ten days took over the main cities in Syria: Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and the capital city of Damascus.

At the same time, rebel forces in southern Syria took control of the area bordering Israel and expelled the regime forces from the major cities in the provinces of Deraa and Quneitra: Sweida, Deraa, Madinat al-Baath, and Khan Arnabah.

The Kurdish forces took control of additional areas in eastern Syria, with an emphasis on the geographical strip along the Euphrates River, near the border with Iraq, around Al-Bukamal, Al Mayadeen, and Deir ez-Zor.

The Alawite area in northwestern Syria, on the coastal strip between Tartus and Latakia (a strip with a large Russian military presence), fell to the rebels without a fight.

The various rebel organizations, led by an organization with a jihadist background – Hayat Tahrir al-Sham – which has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States – currently control Syrian territory together with the Kurds.

With its hundreds of thousands of soldiers and officers deployed throughout the country, the large Syrian army barely resisted or engaged in combat. Its forces withdrew as the rebels advanced, stripping off their uniforms. Many returned to their homes, while others tried to flee to neighboring countries, with an emphasis on Iraq and Lebanon.

Although the Syrian army collapsed, all its sites, bases, equipment, and weapons remain untouched and abandoned. In fact, as of December 08, anyone could “take home” anything from basic military equipment to advanced conventional weapons, strategic capabilities, and even unconventional weapons, such as chemical weapons.

This is the scenario that Israel feared, and it has in fact become a clear and immediate danger.

When regimes fall apart, as we have seen, for example, in Iraq (Saddam Hussein) and Libya (Muammar Gaddafi), many elements set their eyes on the spoils and pounce on them. In the Syrian case, we are dealing with a lot of Russian and Iranian weapons and equipment, such as ships, tanks, armored personnel carriers, planes, helicopters, air defense systems, missiles of various types (surface-to-surface, surface-to-air, land-to-sea, cruise, sea-to-sea), intelligence systems and sites (eavesdropping/electronic warfare/observations), and, of course, sites for the development and manufacture of weapons (the CERS Center), where chemical weapons are also most likely to be found.

There is a realistic and dangerous possibility that a war of all- against -everyone could break out in Syria, forming a NO MAN’S LAND, with the motivation to seize the aforementioned weapons and use them against Israel. History indicates that these weapons could potentially target Israel. The Syrian situation is unstable, and it’s hard to predict what will happen. Therefore, it is critical to thwart in advance any potential that could develop immediately and turn into a surprise attack against Israel by rebel groups, some of which hold an extremist Islamist ideology.

In the Middle East, “there is no such thing as there is no such thing”, immediate interests take precedence over all other considerations. It is also possible that Hezbollah, backed by Iran, could maintain certain ties with various rebel groups, allowing them to transfer some of the remaining weapons to it in exchange for large sums of money. Remember that the collapse of the Syrian regime also led to the collapse of the Iranian arms corridor to Hezbollah. This has cut off Hezbollah’s lifeline for military reconstruction and buildup.

The Iranians and Hezbollah will make every effort to find alternatives, adapt, and adjust to the new reality, and we anticipate that this issue will be of great concern to us in the future.

In order to thwart the clear and immediate danger described above, which is reflected in the large number of weapons left behind by the Syrian army, Israel launched one of the largest attack operations in the history of the IDF, with the participation of the Air Force and the Navy, with the aim of destroying these weapons. As of December 8, the IDF has carried out large-scale attacks throughout Syria in order to damage and destroy all the types of weapons and equipment described above that could pose some kind of threat to Israel in the near and distant future. The operation has carried out more than 300 attacks so far.

In addition, Israel is operating within the buffer zone located in Syrian territory near Israel’s border.  Israel learned this lesson on October 7, 2023. Israel understands that its ability to predict the intentions of a radical Islamic enemy is extremely limited, if not impossible. The concept of deterrence does not exist in the lexicon of extremist ideology, and intelligence alerts do not always exist. Given this, Israel’s margin for error is minimal in this situation. Therefore, a mistake in assessing intentions could result in the loss of many Israeli citizens’ lives. Israel cannot allow another such possibility.

Furthermore, it should be remembered that the separation of forces agreement, which created the buffer zone and was signed with Syria after the Yom Kippur War in 1974, effectively collapsed. It collapsed because the Syrian army no longer exists, and there is no one to sustain it on the Syrian side. Therefore, Israel is exercising its right to self-defense and creating a security zone that provides a response to the lessons learned from October 7, as stated above.