By: Boaz Shapira
The Syrian Civil War (2011-2018) and the crimes committed by the Assad regime against its citizens led many countries worldwide, including Arab nations, to impose sanctions on Syria and sever their ties with it. These sanctions were added to a series of Western sanctions imposed on Syria during the 1980s and 1990s due to the regime’s support for terrorist organizations and its involvement in Lebanon. As a result, Syria has become politically and economically isolated, facing significant challenges in rebuilding its economy, infrastructure, and state systems. One of the sectors most severely affected by the sanctions was the energy sector.
Since 2011, sanctions have banned the sale and purchase of gas and oil (and related products) from Syria, prohibited the sale of parts, equipment, and know-how used in the energy industry, and prohibited investments in these fields in Syria, as well as building of new power plants and investment in companies engaged in the development and production of gas and oil). In addition, sanctions were imposed on companies and individuals related to these fields in Syria. The American “Caesar Act” (2020), which expanded the circle of sanctions, further strengthened these sanctions.
As a result, international companies halted their operations in Syria, causing a significant decline in the production and export of oil and gas from the country, as well as difficulties in importing oil, fuel and related products. The sanctions also posed challenges in maintaining, rehabilitating, and developing the energy sector, which had already suffered significant damage during the war.
For example, Syria’s oil production, which stood at about 400,000 barrels per day before the war, has deteriorated over the past decade and currently stands at only about 20,000 barrels per day. Additionally, the output of the two operating refineries in the country, which previously stood at about 230,000 barrels per day, is now at about 70,000 barrels per day, while the Syrian economy consumes about 160,000 barrels per day. Alongside the sanctions, one can add the fact that after the defeat of ISIS, the Kurds (with American backing) took control of areas in eastern Syria with oil and gas wells, and the Assad regime was forced to buy crude oil from them at sums estimated at about estimated at about $1.2 billion a year (about 80,000 barrels per day).
All of these factors created a crisis in Syria’s energy market and led it to turn to Iran for help. Iran, which quickly took advantage of the situation, started supplying Syria with 50,000–70,000 barrels of crude oil per day, in addition to fuels and other oil-based products. Furthermore, Syria imported an estimated 120,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Iraq. The cooperation between Iran and Syria was also expressed in agreements to build a new refinery in the Homs area, capable of producing approximately 140,000 barrels per day, and in the renovation of the refinery in Banias.
The overthrow of the Assad regime and the subsequent expulsion of Iran and its proxies from Syria resulted in a complete halt of oil supplies from Iran and Iraq to Syria, reigniting an energy crisis. This situation was further exacerbated as Kurdish forces also ceased their oil deliveries to the newly established government. As a result, the activity of the refineries in Banias and Homs has been reduced, and there has been a significant shortage of fuel in the country, which further harms the economy and the energy sector, making it difficult to create stability in Syria.
Since the fall of the Assad regime, al-Sharaa (al-Julani) has consciously chosen to turn to the West and the Gulf states to help stabilize and rebuild Syria. Al-Sharaa and the ministers of the transitional government particularly stressed the importance of lifting the sanctions on Syria in order to begin the country’ reconstruction efforts. The lifting of the sanctions will allow, in the first stage, the import of oil and fuel from various countries and then the beginning of the rehabilitation of the energy and economic infrastructures.
The aforementioned countries positively received this request, demonstrating their understanding of the opportunity to create significant change in Syria and the region by adopting the new regime and distancing it from the influence of Russia and Iran. As part of this change, we can see the reopening of foreign embassies in Damascus, the arrival of delegations from Arab and Western countries, and the willingness to provide extensive assistance for the reconstruction of the country.
It is important to note that the attempts to bring Syria closer to the West and the moderate Sunni states are not a product of recent developments, and that they began back in the days of Assad, as part of the attempt to distance him from Iran. As part of this, Syria was reinstated into the Arab League, Assad visited Saudi Arabia, and several countries even reopened their embassies in Damascus. However, these efforts have been reinforced in light of recent developments.
In this context, recent reports highlighted that a delegation from Turkey is set to travel to Syria in the coming days to assess the state of the electricity system and energy sector in the country, with the aim of evaluating how they can be rehabilitated. Turkey has also expressed its willingness to assist in supplying oil and fuels to Syria. In addition, there are several reports that Saudi Arabia will supply oil to Syria instead of Iran, and that a Saudi oil tanker is already making its way to the port of Banias. It seems that Qatar is also interested in helping Syria in the field of energy.
Ursula von der Leyen (President of the European Commission) and other senior officials were quoted in recent interviews stating that the lifting of sanctions and an increase in aid to Syria should be considered gradually, depending on the actions of the new government and its willingness to implement reforms and sever ties with Iran and Russia.
If the new Syrian government succeeds in stabilizing the country and avoiding significant internal friction, it seems that Syria’s reconstruction will take many years and will require enormous external economic investments. Various countries will use these investments to increase their influence in Syria and the region, and it is essential to pay attention to this and the opportunities they present.
Although Turkey is currently the country with the greatest influence on what is happening in Syria, it seems that it will find it difficult to bear the costs and scope of reconstruction alone. Another country expected to join the reconstruction efforts is Qatar, which has already signaled its intention to inject large sums of money into Syria. This aid, of course, also comes with political influence. One of the main concerns in this context is the creation of a Qatari-Turkish axis, which would increase the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood’s ideology in the region. This could lead to radicalization, threaten Israel’s border in the Golan Heights, and perhaps even undermine stability in Jordan in the future. In light of Erdogan’s recent statements towards Israel and Turkey’s ambitions, as well as Qatar’s known activities supporting terrorist organizations, this represents a significant threat that may materialize in the near future.
The increased economic (and consequently political) influence of countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, as well as of the EU and the US, might reduce Turkey’s political influence and perhaps mitigate concerns about the new regime’s potential shift towards Islamism. In addition, it will help push back Iranian attempts to regain a foothold in Syria, make it difficult to rehabilitate Hezbollah, and contribute to the stability of the region.
However, it is crucial to remain realistic about the nature of the emerging new regime in Syria.
It is important to remember it has deep roots in Islamist-jihadist terrorist organizations, some of which have operated in Iraq and Syria for over a decade. These organizations and individuals, some of whom sought to impose Sharia regimes in the territories under their control, are fundamentally opposed to Western values and will not rush to present positive views regarding Israel.
