Article by: Roy Cahanovich
This week, senior diplomats reported to the Bloomberg news agency that IAEA inspectors found uranium enriched to the level of 84% in the nuclear facilities in Iran.
The dramatic jump in Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity to 84% should worry and encourage the decision-makers in Israel and the free world to take action before it is too late.
A brief historical review of the “Iranian threat” reveals that since ancient times Iran has seen itself as a “great civilization” and significant in the region (in Persian: Tamadoon-ye Buzorg). Iran’s self-perception has stayed the same for about 3500 years. Iran tirelessly strives to obtain nuclear weapons whose primary purpose, according to its government leaders, is to “deter the Great Satan from attacking it”. According to this concept, the “great Satan” is the United States.
Iran is a country with a rich culture, extensive literature, and an ancient language, alongside which there is an excellent academy in various teaching and research fields. This academy is a hotbed for the young educated generation who mostly turn to the West while continuously calling for separation of the state from the rule of the clergy. This generation contributed and turned Iran into a key country in the Middle East in many ways, including in the technological-nuclear context.
Iran, which considers itself a regional power, has been striving for regional hegemony and global influence for years. For this purpose, it directs many resources to the nuclear program’s development (which began in 1956 under Pahlavi’s rule). This country has an area 80 times larger than Israel and a relatively young population of 80 million people. Thanks to oil and gas fields, Iran is also a “super-energy” power (thanks to oil and gas fields). To this, it should be added that the heads of state, including the supreme leader, the president, or other Revolutionary Guards senior officials, are very knowledgeable in global diplomacy as well as in the intricacies of politics and the power games on the chess board between the countries of the world; An element that gives them a significant advantage. This Iranian leadership, which monitors North Korea, India, and Pakistan, as well as the behavior of Western countries in the war between Russia and Ukraine – concludes that the West lacks ambition, ability, or desire to act against it.
Since May 2018, when Trump’s administration withdrew from the nuclear agreement, Iran has continued to defy the IAEA and the West and do whatever it wants in its nuclear facilities.
A breakthrough in the nuclear field will be a real jackpot for the regime’s representatives and the supreme leader (who is solely responsible for this plan), since they are only one brave (from their point of view) and critical decision away from realizing their vision. Although we are not sure, the latest headlines are accurate. In my opinion, no Iranian “mistake” or “error” here resulted in enrichment to a military threshold level, as other researchers and colleagues may suggest. Iran has been conducting itself for years in a goal-oriented manner and according to a precise script.
Iran’s main gap, even after they reach military-level enrichment, i.e., over 90%, is the issue of mounting the enriched uranium on the missile. This knowledge can be acquired from China, North Korea, or even Russia; the Iranians strive to achieve this. The return for the UAVs Russia received from Iran may be in this area.
Here it is important to say that the decision-makers in the free world, need to determine a strategy for dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue. Iran is not only a center for gathering military intelligence but primarily a country with historical and cultural wealth that must be considered when making decisions. Adopting an approach according to which Iran is a complex of one whole will bring benefits in understanding its ambitions and dealing correctly with it. Currently, there are no discussions surrounding a new nuclear agreement, and therefore the military option is on the table more than before.
Such an attack on Iran will require preparation and real-time intelligence gathering. And above all, a deep, thorough understanding of what is happening inside a country that has an ancient heritage as a regional empire since the reign of Cyrus and Ashwarosh and therefore represents a serious challenge to the world’s nations in general and the region in particular.
In this context, it is essential to emphasize that the Iranian threat does not refer only to Israel. And in light of the progressive level of enrichment and Iran’s cooperation with Russia on the issue of Ukraine, it is clear that the military option should not be exclusively Israeli.
2 Responses
• IAEA 60 percent suffices to create a relatively compact nuclear explosive; further enrichment to 80 or 90 percent is not needed”. A common fallacy is Iran would require 90 percent HEU, more commonly called weapon-grade uranium, to build nuclear explosives. Although Iran’s nuclear weapons designs have focused on 90 percent HEU and likely prefer that enrichment, modifying them for 60 percent HEU would be straightforward and well within Iran’s capabilities. 60 percent suffices to create a relatively compact nuclear explosive; further enrichment to 80 or 90 percent is not needed. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 41.7 kg of 60 percent enriched uranium (uranium mass) is a significant quantity, which the IAEA defines as the “approximate amount of nuclear material for which the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive. Will any news service report the truth ? SEE INSTITUTE FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ONLINE REPORT “Entering Dangerous, Uncharted Waters: Iran’s 60 Percent Highly Enriched Uranium By David Albright and Sarah Burkhard April 11, 2022”
• Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency 2023, United Nations’ top nuclear official, Iran has enough highly enriched uranium to build “several” nuclear weapons if it chooses,
Amad Plan Revival
Iran could revive and complete the Amad Plan, creating an industrial-scale nuclear weapons production complex able to serially produce nuclear warheads for ballistic missiles and perhaps cruise missiles. The Amad Plan was well structured, with hundreds of well-defined tasks, each with a schedule, along with careful tracking of progress and shortcomings of each task. By late 2003, and the halt of the Amad Plan, most tasks associated with nuclear weaponization were completed or well on their way to completion, the organizational hierarchy was set, needed physical infrastructure mapped out, and large-scale facilities designed or under construction.
• Iran threatens the world with a program ready to produce nuclear weapons “on-demand.” Its readiness program poses a difficult challenge to the international community and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
• Due to its past, large-scale nuclear weapons program, called the Amad Plan, Iran has a readiness program with less need for secret nuclear weapon development activities. Iran has advanced its nuclear weapons readiness under civilian nuclear and military non-nuclear cover projects. Using a civilian cover, Iran has in recent years successfully produced highly enriched uranium (HEU) and near HEU metal.
There is no military solution from the outside. If Iran really wants a bomb no one can stop them. That ship has sailed. It the supreme leader wants a bomb they will have a bomb. Good thing he doesn’t at this point but know one knows what could happen after he passes. The only thing stopping them are themselves. Israel can’t do it alone because the punishment Iran would inflict on them even without nukes would be as bad as if they had nukes. No good option for the US, Israel, or anyone else. The world will have no choice but to live with a nuclear Iran. The best and only option is to negotiate with Iran. The US and Israel or an intermediate needs to sit down and have a real discussion. No one can force Iran. It has not and will not work. Every time the US and Israel try to force Iran they only become more determined. It you want Iran to go nuclear then attack. If not – sit down and negotiate. Everyone will have to comprise. Iran is not irrational they can and will listen to reason. The problem here is that Iran is as strong willed as Israel and compromise on both sides will have to occur. Iran did show good will with the nuclear negations. What has Israel done?