Main points:
IDF Activity in Syria
Social media footage shows residents of the village Jubata Al Khashab, north of Quneitra, handing over many weapons to IDF forces. In addition to the reports of cooperation between Syrian civilians and the IDF, there were also reports this week of a demonstration in one of the villages in the southern Syrian Golan against the presence of IDF forces on the ground.
Israel’s new neighbors in southern Syria:
Declared on December 6, 2024, the Southern Operations Room (SOR) is a coalition of several rebel organizations operating in southern Syria. The coalition includes Druze and Sunni organizations from Suwayda, Daraa, and Quneitra, and it is its forces that have taken control of southern Syria, including the border area with Israel in the Golan Heights. Who are Israel’s new neighbors? Read about the rebel factions in southern Syria – the Southern Operations Alliance (SOR)
Hezbollah Violations of the ceasefire:
Hezbollah continues to violate the cease-fire agreements, accusing Israel of breaches. During the past week, Hezbollah violated the ceasefire 6 times.
Since the beginning of the ceasefire on November 27, we are aware of 99 violations of the ceasefire agreements by Hezbollah.
The decrease in the number of violations stems mainly from the lack of reports regarding them. In our assessment, there are other violations that are not reported.
IDF activity in Lebanon:
IDF forces continue to operate in accordance with the terms of the ceasefire, to remove threats, and to enforce Hezbollah’s violations in Lebanon. During the past week, weapons depots, mobile launchers of high-weight rockets (Burkan), dozens of mortar shells, anti-tank missiles, rockets, IEDs, artillery cannons, rocket launchers, and other military equipment were identified. A tens-of-meters-long underground route leading to Hezbollah’s headquarters was located, where weapons, observation systems, and military equipment were located. Several weapons depots were located near the headquarters, along with another warehouse set up in the mosque, containing hundreds of IEDs, rifles, grenades, and other military equipment. In addition, a combat complex was located with eight weapons depots above and below ground, connected by underground infrastructure. Communications and electricity, anti-tank missiles, IEDs, and computers were found in the compound.
The Lebanese arena:
The transition to conflicts, some of which are asymmetrical, is a change that has been forced upon Israel. Drones and small UAVs have become the lone soldier’s air force. Even in the absence of a navy, naval capabilities have proven to be achievable. A return to a hybrid world that combines symmetrical threats, mainly from Iran, with asymmetrical threats from its proxies and other terrorist organizations, will dictate an appropriate organization in Israel and in the Western armies. Attached is an article on the subject by Brig. Gen. (res.) Shahar Shochat—VP Strategy at Rafael—and Yair Ramati—Chairman of RSL and former Chairman of the Homa Administration. See the article—Warfare in an Age of Paradoxes (published on December 17, 2024).
Hezbollah – General:
Hezbollah (under Iranian auspices) will do everything possible to adapt and adjust to the new reality in which the Iranian corridor has collapsed for the time being in Syrian territory. Hezbollah has the ability to smuggle weapons directly to Lebanon via air and sea, a method that has been less frequent in the past. They can also “intermediate stop” in another country to detach their involvement. There is also a possibility that in the future, the Iranians and Hezbollah may attempt to revitalize the corridor routes through Syria itself. Financial cooperation with local elements such as rebel factions and Shiite Syrians, as well as government officials, could achieve this. In this case- money and economic interests come first before ideology.
(December 18) Hezbollah is working to assist Syrian refugees who arrived in the Bekaa Valley following the collapse of the regime in Syria, but not out of humanitarian motives or genuine concern for their well-being. Instead, this effort is aimed at advancing its interests. From an operational perspective, Hezbollah is likely seeking to exploit these refugees for its purposes in Syria, particularly given its diminished direct access to the country. As part of this strategy, Hezbollah may work to recruit Syrian refugees and facilitate their return to Syria, where they could operate in its service on Syrian soil.
(December 19) A meeting between Zayed Daher, head of Hezbollah’s Sidon sector, and a delegation of senior Hamas figures headed by Hamas representative in Lebanon Ahmed Abd al-Hadi (see in below photo).
Civilian Activity – Reconstruction of Lebanon
The Jihad al-Bina organization, operating under the social unit of Hezbollah’s Executive Council, is responsible for the reconstruction campaign, which includes construction and infrastructure rehabilitation. “Meamar for Engineering & Development SARL” has been selected as the main contractor for the restoration. According to our assessment, Hezbollah’s proxy civilian engineering companies will join the restoration campaign. They also work under the instructions of Hezbollah’s assets unit. Read more in the article: Hezbollah-Jihad Construction: Infrastructure Rehabilitation through the Maamar Engineering and Development Company (published on December 18, 2024).
Hezbollah persists in its civilian endeavors, concentrating on the restoration of the war’s damage. The picture shows the Reconstruction Campaign in the Jebal Amil area, where teams of engineers, construction contractors, and other professionals operate. The service caters to the renovation of residential buildings, commercial centers, and public offices.
Human shield
This month it was revealed that Hezbollah used a warehouse inside the Lebanese University in Beirut this month to conceal weapons and military equipment. The warehouse is in a residential area, in the student dormitory building.
Upon examination of the warehouse, it became evident that Hezbollah had used the Lebanese University’s Beirut warehouse to store military equipment and weapons during the war with Israel.
Reports indicate that the warehouse manager visited the warehouse a few days ago, discovered the removal and replacement of the locks, and promptly notified the management. Upon examination, the contents revealed the presence of military equipment, electronic and office equipment, and approximately five locked metal boxes, all of which remained unopened. Numbers and the inscription “Radwan” adorned the crates.
The university notified the certified judicial authorities and sealed the warehouse. Military Intelligence arrived to investigate the circumstances of the incident and summoned the building’s guard to find out more details.
As the investigation advanced, the Lebanese security services verified that Hezbollah owned the boxes, identified them by the specific numbers and the phrase “Radwan” attached to them. Opening the boxes revealed the presence of military weapons, along with parts from Kornet anti-tank missiles and rockets.
It turned out that a senior Hezbollah official, accompanied by several young men, concealed the boxes in the warehouse and strategically positioned a variety of military equipment, such as night binoculars, army uniforms, and military bags, next to them.
The university’s official statement said: “As part of the process of examining all the university buildings for clarification and determining the damage caused by the war, it was found that there was a change in the locks in one of the rented warehouses intended for storing supplies and equipment.”
In the presence of the university’s lawyer, the warehouse owner, and the warehouse secretary, the university immediately examined the warehouse’s contents and discovered military clothes, suitcases, and locked boxes. As a result, the judge decided to close the warehouse to complete the investigations and take the necessary legal steps.
Hezbollah, of course, denied any connection to the case: “Hezbollah has nothing to do with the equipment confiscated by the security services from one of the warehouses of the Lebanese university,” noting that “the case with all its details is in the hands of the Lebanese judicial system and the Lebanese security services that worked and are working to investigate it.”
A widespread campaign of criticism of the Lebanese state and the university’s presidency spread on social media, with calls to take responsibility and reveal the full facts, while others mentioned the issue of the explosion at the port of Beirut in 2020. Many demanded the resignation of the university’s president, Bassam Badran, accusing the Lebanese state of lax supervision of its educational facilities and calling for the implementation of international resolutions concerning the control of illegal weapons.
A social media circulated audio recording reveals a southern Lebanon civilian’s intention to sue Hezbollah for allegedly storing weapons in civilian homes, thereby putting them at risk. The recording, whose sources and credibility are difficult to verify, features a southern Lebanon resident lamenting a theft in his home by Hezbollah operatives. The spokesman threatens to file a complaint against Hezbollah, which will include Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem, the head of the southern sector, and other senior officials, not only for the theft but also for bringing disaster to Lebanon as a whole. ” We should hold responsible and imprison anyone who rented a place to store missiles, thereby exposing us to danger, and make them pay compensation to those who were damaged.” We should imprison and interrogate anyone who placed a rocket between the houses, exposing us to danger.
We reiterate that at this stage we are unable to verify the authenticity of this recording.
Lebanon – General:
(December 18) The Ceasefire Committee met at the UN headquarters in Naqoura with the participation of representatives of the United States, France, Israel and Lebanon.
(December 18) Evacuation of rubble began in some neighborhoods in the Dahieh after government approval was obtained. It was also reported that the Lebanese Civil Defense is still working to locate the bodies of several missing persons who were with Nasrallah during the attack in which he was eliminated (September 27).
(December 21) The Lebanese army took over two known military compounds of Palestinian organizations in the Bekaa Valley, near the border with Syria. One of the compounds is that of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) terrorist organization – the General Leadership. It is considered the main command center of the front, and since the beginning of the events in Syria it has operated under the command of Hezbollah, which paved an asphalt road connecting the area to Syria.
The Syrian Arena:
The territory of southern Syria is divided into three provinces: Quneitra (in the west), Daraa (in the center) and Suwayda (in the east). The main religions are Sunni Muslims and Druze. The majority of the population is Sunni. The main city in the Quneitra district is Khan Arnabah. In the Daraa Province, the main city is Daraa, and in the Suwayda Province, the main city is Suwayda. Most of the border with Israel is in the Quneitra Province, apart from one of border triangle (Israel, Syria, and Jordan) located in the Daraa Province.
Over the past week, numerous diplomatic delegations from around the world have arrived to meet with Syria’s new leader, Al-Julani. Qatar has resumed its embassy operations in Damascus for the first time since 2011, and delegations from the UN, the United States, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom have met with Al-Julani. Following the meeting with the American delegation, it was announced that the U.S. had removed the $10 million bounty previously placed on Al-Julani’s head. It appears there are indications that Western nations are considering normalizing relations with the new regime in Syria before its character and policies have been firmly established.
(December 17) A delegation from the Druze community met in Damascus with Ahmed al-Shara (Abu Muhammad al-Julani), the new leader of Syria. Al-Julani also met with Walid Jumblatt, the leader of the Druze in Lebanon. Jumblatt expressed support for the Syrian rebels. Al-Julani emphasized that the Syrian regime’s intervention in Lebanon’s affairs had been negative in recent decades. He added: “Our battle saved the region from a major regional war and perhaps a world war. Syria now stands equidistant from all parties in Lebanon and will not serve as a case of negative interference as it has in the past.” Regarding the next phase, Al-Julani stated: “Syria has entered a new stage of state-building and moving away from vengeance. We respect its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and Lebanon’s security.”
Following the meeting, Jumblatt told the press that the Shebaa Farms are Syrian territory. This is not the first time Jumblatt has made such a statement; it has also been a source of friction between him and Hezbollah. It is worth noting that the Shebaa Farms dispute is a focal point in the Hezbollah-Israel conflict, with Hezbollah claiming the area as occupied Lebanese territory to justify its military actions, while Israel regards it as Syrian land.
During the past week, Al-Julani made several important appointments in Syria:
- Maher al-Shara (Al-Julani’s brother) was appointed Minister of Health for the new Syrian government, after serving as Minister of Health for the Salvation Government in Idlib.
- Hassan Zufan, the former leader of Ahrar al-Sham, has been appointed governor of Latakia.
- The current leader of Ahrar Al-Sham, Amir Al-Sheikh, has been appointed governor of Rif Damascus.
- Azzam Gharib (Abu al-‘Az Saraqeb), a senior member of Ahrar al-Sham, was appointed governor of the city of Aleppo.
- Ahmed Issa Al-Sheikh, commander of the rebel organization Suqour Al-Sham Brigades (Falcons of the Levant) (an organization closely related to Ahrar Al-Sham), has been appointed governor of Idlib Province.
- Ahmad al-Shami was appointed governor of Tartus.
- As’ad Hassan al-Shibani, one of the founders of the rebel salvation government in Idlib, has been appointed foreign minister.
- Marhaf Abu Qasra, head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s military wing, has been appointed Minister of Defense.
About Israel’s activities in Syria, Al-Julani stated in an interview with the BBC this week that Israel’s motive for intervening in Syria was the presence of pro-Iranian militias and Hezbollah. However, he claimed that these justifications are now outdated, as they have successfully expelled these forces from Syria. Therefore, according to him, there is no justification for the presence of Israeli forces in Syria.
He further added that he intends to exert international pressure on Israel to withdraw from Syria, citing the 1974 agreement between Syria and Israel at the United Nations regarding the buffer zone and the presence of international forces. According to him, they have already sent letters to the UN expressing their willingness to allow UN forces into the buffer zone and reaffirming their commitment to the 1974 agreement.
(December 18) The name of the mosque named after Khomeini (the first leader of the Iranian revolution) in the suburb of Sayyida al-Zanab in Damascus was changed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to the mosque of Sayyida Aisha (the third and beloved wife of the Prophet Muhammad).
(December 18) For the first time since the fall of Assad, Damascus airport reopened for domestic flights only. In addition, the Jaber border crossing between Syria and Jordan was opened and commercial trucks began to enter Syria.
(December 17-19) The US Central Command carried out airstrikes against ISIS camps and operatives in Syria. 12 ISIS terrorists were killed. In another American attack, in the Deir ez-Zor province, ISIS leader Abu Yusuf Hala and two other ISIS operatives were killed.
(Dec. 20) The main and largest refinery in Banias ceased operations due to the non-arrival of oil shipments from Iran, which accounted for about 90 percent of the oil that reached the country. Following this, it was reported that Saudi Arabia would immediately begin supplying oil to Syria.
The Shiite Axis – General
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq:
During the past week (December 16-22), Houthi forces in Yemen claimed responsibility for attacking a “vital target in southern Israel” with UAVs. It was reported that a UAV launched from Iraq was intercepted.
From November 2, 2023, when the Islamic Resistance in Iraq began to carry out attacks against Israel, until December 22, 2024, responsibility was claimed for 322 attacks against Israel. 99 of them actually reached Israeli territory (intercepted or fell in open areas).
It has been reported by senior militia officials that the attacks against Israel have been suspended due to an agreement between the militias and Iraq’s Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani.
Yemen – Houthi-Land:
(December 16) A US attack on the headquarters of the Houthi Ministry of Defense in the center of Sana’a, a facility that served as a center for coordinating Houthi attacks.
(December 16-22) The Houthis carried out eight attacks, seven of which targeted Israel using UAVs and ballistic missiles, and one aimed at the American aircraft carrier USS Truman during a U.S. strikes on the Houthis. In one of the attacks against Israel, the Houthis launched a ballistic missile. Although the IDF intercepted the missile, its warhead detached and struck a school in the city of Ramat Gan, causing significant damage. In another attack, the Houthis launched a ballistic missile that the IDF failed to intercept, resulting in a strike on Tel Aviv-Yafo that left 16 civilians injured.
On December 19, 2024, Israel carried out a third direct attack against the Houthi’s on Yemeni soil. The attack focused on the infrastructure at the seaports in Hudaydah, Ras Issa and a-Salif, and on energy infrastructure in Sana’a (a power plant and fuel tanks). In total, five attack zones.
Houthi attacks against Israel and ships in the Red Sea region began on October 19, 2023. Since then, the Houthis have fired more than 200 surface-to-surface (ballistic) missiles and another 170 UAVs.
As of December 21, 2024, the Houthis had carried out 65 direct attacks against Israeli territory using UAVs and missiles (gray column). During the same period, the Houthis carried out 238 attacks against ships in the Red Sea region using missiles, UAVs, and explosive boats (Blue Column).
From November 2023 to May 2024, there was a downward trend in direct attacks against Israel, with no direct attacks in May. Furthermore, since July 2024, there has been a noticeable decrease in the frequency of Houthi attacks targeting ships in this region.
On July 20, 2024, Israel launched its first direct attack against the Houthis. For about a month and a half after the attack, the Houthis did not carry out direct attacks against Israel.
Following the second direct Israeli attack on the Houthi Land on September 29 and the commencement of ground maneuvers in Lebanon on October 1, the number of direct Houthi attacks against Israel significantly increased. The upward trend peaked in December 2024, with 16 attacks against Israel to date. This is the month with the largest number of direct attacks against Israel since October 2023.
(December 21) U.S. forces conducted an airstrike targeting a missile depot and a command-and-control facility in Sana’a, Yemen. Concurrently, the Houthis claimed they attacked the American aircraft carrier USS Truman and several destroyers using 8 cruise missiles and 17 UAVs. The assault reportedly coincided with the onset of the U.S. operation.
The Houthis also claimed to have downed an F-18 aircraft, forcing most fighter jets to leave Yemeni airspace to defend the carrier. The U.S. military stated that a fighter jet was damaged by “crossfire” during the operation, and both pilots were rescued alive.
Every Friday for the past year, hundreds of thousands of people have gathered in Sana’a (the Houthis reported that 2 million civilians participated), calling for support for the war against Israel and support for Gaza. Weekly demonstrations in Sana’a reflect the strength and perseverance of popular support for Houthi attacks.
Since October 2023, there have been 303 Houthi attacks against Israel, the United States, and other targets.
