Main points:
The overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria (December 08, 2024):
The rebel forces, which include four main umbrella organizations, completed their surprise offensive, which began on November 27, with the capture of the Syrian capital, Damascus, on December 8. The Assad regime in Syria has fallen.
Each umbrella organization encompasses numerous sub-organizations (often with other organizations under them), representing a diverse range of ideologies, thereby highlighting the intricacy and vulnerability of the alliances in Syria. Power struggles will continue to accompany the dynamic situation in Syria even after the regime’s fall. read our article – The main rebel organizations in Syria – December 2024.
Following the demise of the Assad regime in Syria, we mostly have questions about the day after. The major ones are:
- The euphoria and shattered reality – After the celebrations of the regime’s fall, will there be a power struggle between the various rebel factions, pitting “all” against “everyone,” and will Syria become a no man’s land?
- Will Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) show its true face (Al-Qaeda/Al-Nusra Front) and work to establish a Sharia regime in Syria? Or will it work to establish a moderate and inclusive government?
- What will be the impact on ISIS’s infrastructure in Syria? Will the organization undergo strengthening and consolidation?
- What will be the impact on the Captagon industry? Will it be dismantled? Will it obtain new ownership?
- What is the extent of Turkish and Qatari influence in bolstering the Muslim Brotherhood’s axis in Syria, and what are the potential implications and risks for Jordan in this context?
- Will Syria succeed in uniting, or will it form central cantonal areas?
- What will become of the “Alawite region” in northwest Syria, where the destruction of regime symbols has also begun?
- Will the Russians physically abandon Syria? Will they leave their bases in Russian autonomy in Hmeimim and Tartus?
- What will the new Iranian corridor (land/air/sea) look like? What does it mean for Hezbollah’s lifeline in the context of reconstruction and buildup? Will the Iranians attempt to acquire rebel groups with financial aid, or will they seek to utilize them against Israel? (In the Middle East, there is no such thing; there is no such thing…)
- Will terrorism from the Syrian border against Israel resurface (in the near or distant future) in a “new format”? Considering Turkish President Erdogan’s extremist statements regarding Israel, will the rebels serve as a military proxy in the hands of the Turks against Israel?
- Will Iran dash into its nuclear program as “compensation” for the significant damage to the strategic concept of the unification of the arenas?
Answers? We’re not sure we have it at the moment…
Israel must balance the short-term benefits of disrupting and even thwarting the influence and entrenchment of the Iranian-led Shiite axis in Syria with the long-term risks of empowering Sunni extremists, access to sensitive and even unconventional weapons, and regional instability. Extremism, whether Sunni or Shiite, poses a clear and immediate threat. A strategy that deals with both variants of this threat is crucial. The rebels, including Sunni jihadists, succeeded in their attack, taking control of both Damascus and southern Syria and toppling the Assad regime. The potential benefits for Israel from the emergence of stronger versions of al-Qaeda and Jabhat al-Nusra on the Syrian border in the Golan Heights remain unclear. See our article “The renewal of the Syrian civil war—The enemy of my enemy is not my friend,” which was written a short time ago, before it became clear that the Assad regime had fallen.
The IDF’s actions on December 7 appear to be a response to the risks. The IDF is working to temporarily take control of the buffer zone on the border with Syria and has also begun a large-scale offensive to destroy advanced strategic heavy weapons left behind by the collapsed Syrian army.
Hezbollah Violations of the ceasefire:
Hezbollah continues to violate the cease-fire agreements, accusing Israel of violations. During the past week, there were 42 violations of the ceasefire by Hezbollah, including direct firing of two munitions at Har Dov. Since the beginning of the ceasefire on November 27, we are aware of 79 violations of the ceasefire agreements by Hezbollah.
IDF activity in Lebanon:
As part of the ceasefire, the IDF enforces the agreements, prevents Lebanese residents from entering the areas where it is still operating and act against terror activity by Hezbollah. The IDF continues to deploy its forces in southern Lebanon, conducting defensive operations in Israeli communities near the fence and eliminating threats to Israel. Since the ceasefire took effect in Lebanon, the IDF has eliminated 25 Hezbollah terrorists who violated it.
Over the past week, the IDF continued to locate and destroy Hezbollah terrorist targets and eliminate terrorists. The IDF successfully located and destroyed hundreds of weapons, including mortars, anti-tank missiles, vehicles equipped with rocket and missile launchers, mortars, dozens of rockets, boxes of ammunition, and Kalashnikov rifles. Additionally, the soldiers destroyed underground shafts, some of which led directly to Hezbollah’s underground infrastructure.
During one of the searches, the soldiers discovered and destroyed warehouses in civilian areas that contained ready-to-use weapons. The warehouses contained hundreds of anti-tank rockets, mortars, grenades, and a vehicle carrying rocket launchers.
The Lebanese arena:
War data:
In the fighting against Hezbollah in the northern arena, 45 Israeli civilians and 79 IDF soldiers were killed, a total of 124 people.
See the summary of war data – the northern arena.
In Israel, the government evacuated 43 communities located up to five kilometers from the Lebanese border. A total of about 68,000 citizens. To them were added several thousand more who decided to evacuate independently. It should be noted that some of the Israeli communities have not been fully evacuated and there is a civilian presence there (agriculture and industry).
The residents have not yet received an official order to return to their homes. There appears to be a growing trend among residents to return home independently. At this stage, we are uncertain about the extent of the return trend. According to a government decision, the evacuation period, as of this writing, is until December 31, 2024.
According to data from the Ministry of Defense’s “Northern Horizon” Administration, since the beginning of the war, 2,874 structures have been damaged in northern communities: 1,669 are residential buildings, 213 are public buildings, 104 are infrastructures, and about 150 are agricultural structures. 841 of them sustained moderate to heavy damage and will require reconstruction. The city of Kiryat Shmona suffered the heaviest damage – 382 structures, 73 of which were moderate to heavy damage. Other communities that suffered heavy damage are Shlomi, Nahariya, Manara and Metula.
According to estimates by the Israeli Ministry of Finance, the direct damage to property on the northern border amounts to 1.5 billion shekels. The Israeli Ministry of Finance also estimated that the indirect damage in the Israeli communities along the Lebanese border would amount to approximately 3.5–4 billion shekels.
Hezbollah – General:
(December 5) Naim Qassem’s speech:
Qassem continues to glorify Hezbollah’s “victory” in the war. According to him, the victory had three factors: the steadfastness of the fighters, the death of the Martyrs, headed by Nasrallah, and the restoration of Hezbollah’s command and control structure, which helped manage the campaign effectively.
Qassem explained that Hezbollah agreed to the ceasefire as part of the mechanism for implementing Resolution 1701, which stipulates Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanese territory and the prevention of the presence of militants south of the Litani. (*Note: Naim Qassem forgets to mention that Hezbollah did not implement its part in 2006, and even now, since the ceasefire went into effect Hezbollah has committed dozens of violations of terrorist activity in southern Lebanon.)
He claimed that Israel had committed more than 60 violations of the agreement, and that the Lebanese state should be responsible for this monitoring. “Hezbollah is giving the Lebanese state an opportunity to turn the agreement into a success,” he said, stressing that “the resistance will not allow Israel to interfere in its internal affairs or in the relationship between Hezbollah and the Lebanese army.”
Qassem stressed that “Hezbollah is committed to defending the right of the Lebanese and Palestinians to liberate their land, which is a source of strength for the resistance.” He also noted that “the party will work to assess the crises experienced by the resistance and draw lessons in order to develop its performance in various areas, and Hezbollah is strong in the strength of its sovereign project, which wants to build a state of justice in cooperation with all parties.”
As in every speech, he noted the importance of supporting the displaced persons, whom he called a “national treasure,” and emphasized their steadfastness and support for Hezbollah. Hezbollah is now obligated to provide them with the support they need to alleviate their suffering and ensure their dignity. On behalf of the displaced persons, Qassem thanked those who helped them at the governmental and civilian levels, and thanked Iran and Iraq for their financial support. According to him, during the month of November, an allowance of between $300 and $400 began to be paid to each displaced family. In addition, Hezbollah, with the support of Iran, will provide financial support to owners of destroyed homes:
- $8,000 compensation for furniture.
- $6,000 a year in rent for residents of Beirut and Dahieh.
- $4,000 a year in rent for residents outside Beirut and Dahieh.
- As for the details regarding the partially destroyed or damaged structures, Hezbollah will publish all the details through a website and under the supervision of special committees.
Naim Qassem stressed that most of these funds are provided by Iran and praised Iran’s significant role in supporting the displaced in Lebanon.
Qassem also referred to the role of the Lebanese government in post-war reconstruction. According to him, the government must cope with the removal of rubble, deal with the infrastructure and develop a comprehensive plan for the rehabilitation of the houses. Qassem said that Hezbollah would cooperate with the government in reconstruction. In addition, he called on Arab countries and other countries to contribute to the reconstruction of Lebanon, which would help speed up the reconstruction process.
Referring to the rebel offensive in Syria, Qassem accused Israel and the United States of sponsoring the infidel groups in Syria, which serve as tools in their hands. “We are facing a dangerous Israeli expansion project, and I call on you to support the resistance against Israel,” he said, stressing that “takfiri groups want to move Syria from a place of resistance to a place that serves the Israeli enemy.”
Civilian Activity – Reconstruction of Lebanon
In recent weeks, Hezbollah has begun to resume its civilian activity among the Shiite population in Lebanon, especially in areas considered its strongholds. Despite the severe blows it has suffered, people perceive these moves as an attempt to convey a message of stability, strength, and presence. Hezbollah wants to earn back its supporters’ trust and leadership.
Hezbollah announced that it will establish a mechanism specific to each region to carry out the compensation payments to the residents of Lebanon. Hezbollah will establish and supervise centers to carry out the payment process. Hezbollah will make payments for furniture and lodging, as well as for home restoration and renovation allowances.
As preparation for the beginning of the reconstruction, over the past week Hezbollah has published several announcements about the reconstruction activities it will carry out in the Bekaa, Nabatieh, and Tyre.
Hezbollah’s leadership in the Bekaa Valley has officially announced that they have carried out several rehabilitation activities so far, which include surveying and repairing damaged houses, as well as restoring them and returning them to their owners. Within this framework, Hezbollah’s leadership activated 114 teams of engineers and field supervisors, focusing each area based on its geographical division. Each damaged house will receive financial compensation in the amount of $12,000 once the survey process is complete. Al-Qard’s bank branches will directly process the payment. This announcement also suggests that Al-Qard Al-Hassan is resuming operations following the IDF’s attack on its branches and sites last month.
Hezbollah’s leadership announced the beginning of the survey in the city of Nabatiyeh and the village of Joz. The announcement states that teams of engineers and experts will initiate a mapping process to repair the damaged houses, assessing the damage in all the neighborhoods. Following the completion of the mapping, the Hezbollah bank “Kard al-Hassan” will transfer financial compensation to the owners of the damaged houses through networks. We will allocate temporary housing solutions in designated places for the significantly affected residents, following local guidelines. The announcement also emphasized the importance of citizens’ cooperation and patience considering the extensive scope of the damage, calling on citizens to follow the procedures through the Division’s officials in the designated places within the Division.
In a similar announcement to the residents of Tyre, Hezbollah leadership announced the launch of the working committees on dealing with the consequences of the war. These committees will begin working on mapping the damages and financial compensation on December 6, 2024.
Hezbollah displayed another facet of its civilian activity last week by organizing multiple funerals for its operatives who lost their lives during the fighting and were unable to get proper funeral rituals. Funerals for Hezbollah operatives serve as a primary venue for uniting and boosting support for the group among Shi’ites by highlighting shaheed sacrifice and promoting ideology and unity themes.
Lebanon – General:
(December 3) Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Mojtaba Amani visited the site where Nasrallah had been eliminated.
(December 3) The Italian Division of UNIFIL donated foodstuffs, blankets, medicines, and hygiene products to those in charge of the emergency unit in Tyre, the Jabal Amel Hospital and representatives of the Bint Jbeil municipality on behalf of the Italian Ministry of Defense and other humanitarian aid organizations.
(December 5) It was reported that the ceasefire monitoring committee in southern Lebanon is expected to convene for its first meeting in the coming days at UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura. The French representative of the five-member monitoring committee, General Guillaume Ponchin, accompanied by French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu, is expected to arrive in Lebanon, thus completing the convening of the ceasefire monitoring committee with the appointment of the commander of the southern Litani sector, General Edgar Lawandos.
The Lebanese Army:
(December 4) According to reports in Lebanon, the Lebanese army has returned to its bases in the Shebaa region in the south of the country, for the first time since it withdrew from them in October 2024.
It was also reported that the Lebanese army chose the commander of the southern Litani sector, Edgar Lawandos (with the rank of brigadier general), as Lebanon’s representative on the supervisory committee for the implementation of the ceasefire agreement with Israel. The Ceasefire Monitoring Committee is expected to convene for the first time in the coming days at the UNIFIL base in Naqoura in southern Lebanon.
The Syrian Arena:
(December 3) In an attack on a vehicle in the Aqraba area of the Damascus region, on the road leading to the international airport, Salman Nimr Jama’ah, who oversaw Hezbollah’s file in the Syrian army, was killed. Jama’ah held a series of senior positions in Hezbollah. In his last position, Jamaa served as a liaison between Hezbollah and the Syrian army and was a key factor in the transfer of Hezbollah weapons from Syria to Lebanon. See the location of the attack bellow:
As part of the rebel attacks on the Syrian regime’s sites, the CERS Center 4000 Institute in Masyaf was attacked by a suicide UAV. The rebel takeover of the CERS Center sites increases the potential danger posed by these sites. See our article – Rebel attack against Seres’ 4000 institute in Masyaf.
In May 2024, we published a position paper regarding the CERS Center, in which we recommended that a large-scale attack be carried out on all the sites of the CERS Center in Syria and that they be destroyed. Our recommendation at the time, of course, related to the strategic damage to Iran’s efforts in Syria and the damage to Iran’s weapons development and production efforts and to the Iranian arms corridor to Hezbollah and the various militias. Another reason is that the CERS Center is a platform for the knowledge, production, and preservation of significant unconventional capability (with an emphasis on chemical capability). As of this writing, our recommendation has received a circumstantial update in light of the fact that the CERS sites have fallen under the control of the rebel organizations.
(December 6) The IDF attacked Hezbollah’s weapons smuggling routes from Syria to Lebanon. A prominent attack was carried out at the Al-Ararida crossing. The crossing is located between the village of Aricha in the Akkar province in northern Lebanon and the Syrian province of Tartus. Hezbollah began rapid operations to try to transfer weapons from Syria to Lebanon at the last minute, before the rebels took full control of the area. This crossing location is optimal for the transfer of weapons, military equipment, and Iranian oil from northwestern Syria.
(December 7) The IDF deploys in the buffer zone on the Syrian-Israeli border:
Since May 31, 1974, Israel and Syria have maintained a separation of forces agreement signed at the end of the Yom Kippur War, which broke out on October 6, 1973. The agreement, which is overseen by the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) (an armed force established based on UN Security Council Resolution 350), is intended to maintain calm on the border, and defines a buffer zone that is intended to be a demilitarized zone, with no military presence, with the exception of UN forces serving as international observers. The buffer zone is between the Alpha Line (the border between the countries) and the Bravo Line.
During the civil war of the previous decade, the agreement was challenged from time to time. Today, considering the collapse of the Syrian regime and the takeover of the rebels, it is once again being severely challenged. In light of the events, the IDF deployed and temporarily took control of the buffer zone (including the Syrian Mount Hermon) in order to preserve and protect the Israeli border.
(December 7) It should be noted that we were familiar with the deployment of 12 Russian outposts in the Syrian Golan Heights, near the border with Israel. As the rebels advanced and took control of southern Syria as well, the Russians evacuated their outposts in the area.
(December 8) The IDF began operating throughout Syria, targeting heavy strategic weapons, such as surface-to-surface missiles, air defense systems, surface-to-air missiles, cruise missiles, long-range rockets, and anti-ship missiles. The Syrian army’s collapsed intelligence and army buildings were also targeted by the IDF.
The Shiite Axis – General
(December 3) In response to the attack by the American forces in the Euphrates area, several weapons systems were attacked in the vicinity of the American military base, including three trucks loaded with rocket launchers, a T-64 tank, an APC and mortars. On the same day, an SDF attack against pro-Iranian militias in the Deir ez-Zor province was reported with American backing.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq:
During the past week (December 2-8), the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for four attacks in cooperation with the Houthi forces in Yemen. It was reported that a UAV and two missiles were intercepted from Yemen.
Since 02 November 2023, when the Islamic resistance in Iraq began carrying out attacks against Israel, until December 8, 2024, they assumed responsibility for 320 attacks against Israel. 97 of them actually reached Israeli territory (intercepted or fell in open areas).
Yemen – Houthi-Land:
(December 3) The Houthis claimed responsibility for 3 attacks, combined with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, in which three targets in Israel were attacked by UAVs. On December 2, it was reported that the IDF had intercepted a UAV in the Red Sea area, and there were no other indications.
On December 8-7 two missiles were reported to have been launched from Yemen and intercepted before they crossed into Israeli territory.
Since October 2023, there have been 235 Houthi attacks against Israel, the United States, and other targets.
One Response
Hi israel-alma.org administrator, Thanks for the well-researched and well-written post!