The Northern Arena and the Shiite Axis – Weekly Review of Events and Key Data (20 -26 Jan.)

The Lebanese Arena

On January 26, the Lebanese started attempting to re-enter areas and villages in southern Lebanon that were off-limits near the Israeli border. This was a planned, initiated, organized, move by Hezbollah (see details below).

The ceasefire has been extended until February 18, 2025.

IDF Activity in Lebanon:

January 22 – The forces of the 810th Mountain Brigade, under the command of the 210th Division, carried out a raid in the dense terrain of the Lebanese Har Dov to remove threats and clear the area of enemy weapons and infrastructure. The forces located numerous weapons, anti-tank launchers, rocket launchers, machine guns, scopes, and missiles aimed at Israeli territory.

The IDF is still conducting operations in southern Lebanon in accordance with the agreements between Israel and Lebanon while maintaining the terms of the ceasefire. The IDF continues to monitor Hezbollah’s attempts to return to southern Lebanon from its deployment in south Lebanon. It will act to remove any threat to the State of Israel and IDF forces.

January 23 – The IDF is operating to remove the threats in Hezbollah’s terror zones.

The forces of the 300th Brigade’s combat team, under the command of the 146th Division, acted to remove Hezbollah’s threats in the village of Ita a-Sha’ab in southern Lebanon, which were used by Hezbollah to arm itself and prepare for many terrorist activities, and from there, hundreds of rockets and anti-tank missiles were launched at Israeli territory. Searches in the area found many weapons, including rocket launchers, crates of weapons, missiles and launchers, IEDs, RPG launchers, Kalashnikov assault rifles, hundreds of rockets and mortars, grenades, Kornet missiles, and sniper weapons. All the means were located inside buildings that served as residential buildings—in courtyards, kindergartens, and basements. In addition, more than 30 Hezbollah warehouses were located. All of the finds were confiscated or destroyed. See the video of IDF activity and weapons that was found: https://youtu.be/mw4F8vCU-HM

January 24 – IDF soldiers located and destroyed subterrain routes, and a large quantity of weapons that were located.

During an operation by paratroopers and the 769th Brigade combat team under the command of the 91st Division in the Saluki area last week, several significant Hezbollah subterranean routes were located that were supposed to serve as accommodation compounds. The routes were investigated and destroyed in collaboration with the brigade’s engineering forces and the Yahalom unit.
In the operation, a cache of weapons was found inside a mosque. A vehicle carrying
weapons, hundreds of mortar shells, IEDs, rockets, weapons, and other Hezbollah military
equipment.

January 26 – IDF forces fired deterrent fire to remove a threat in southern Lebanon.

IDF forces operating in southern Lebanon fired warning shots. to distance and remove threats at several locations where suspects were identified approaching them after Hezbollah encouraged civilians to return to their villages in southern Lebanon, contrary to IDF and Lebanese army orders.

Several suspects were arrested in the area while operating near IDF forces posing a substantial threat, some of whom were interrogated in the field.

The IDF is deployed in the area of southern Lebanon and continues to act in accordance with the understandings between Israel and Lebanon and to monitor Hezbollah’s attempts to return to southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s Reconstruction Project

January 22 – The “Vata’unu” organization launched the “Gates of Heaven” campaign to accompany the return of the displaced to their border villages.

The “Vata’unu” association organized the launch ceremony of the volunteer activities program for the month of Ramadan, which will begin on February 28, under the title “The Gates of Heaven Campaign”. The launch event was sponsored by the Iranian cultural advisor in Lebanon, Kamil Bakirzadeh, and in the presence of a group of social activists, supporters and volunteers.

January 23 – “Hezbollah paid $400 million to 140,000 injured in 55 days.”

According to the newspaper Al-Akhbar, the total amount paid by Hezbollah so far in shelter allowances, rehabilitation compensation, and others amounted to about $400 million to about 140,000 people who were injured; these sums were transferred to those eligible for them within 55 days. Each case received an average payment of about $2,860. The sums paid amount to a maximum of $14,000, depending on the extent of the damage to the buildings and housing, and this sum does not include the construction of new buildings that were destroyed.

According to a report published by the Jihad Construction Association, the total number of housing units surveyed by January 20, 2025, reached 268,317 in 448 villages and towns, by an engineering team of 466 engineers, in addition to 149 employees who signed electronically. In the southern suburbs, the number of housing units inspected by the engineering teams reached 86,900, and in the area south of the Litani River, the number of housing units inspected reached 77,232. In the area north of the Litani River, the number was 70,158; in the Bekaa Valley, 33,811; and in Jbeil, 216.”

January 22 – Assassination of Muhammad Khalil Hammadi

On January 22 Hezbollah announced that Sheikh Muhammad Khalil Hammadi, in charge of the western Bekaa Valley, had been shot dead as he left his home in the town of Mashara in the western Bekaa.

The incident caused a great deal of reverberation in Lebanon. It was claimed that the assassination was carried out after continuous surveillance by the assassination team, whose members used long weapons. So far, their identities are unknown and the reason for his assassination is unclear.

Khalil Hammadi personally supervised and controlled the compensation money paid by Hezbollah for the war victims in the western Bekaa Valley. In our assessment, there is a direct connection between his involvement and responsibility in financial matters and his assassination.

In a recent article published by the Al-Aad TV channel, Hammadi can be seen explaining that they have completed distributing more than 4,000 checks for compensation for 95 percent of the victims, totaling more than $3 million, in accordance with the field tests and surveys carried out by the team of engineers from the Western Bekaa Valley, who are under Hammadi’s responsibility.

In light of the circumstances and the assassination that took place close to the completion of the compensation payments, we see a direct connection between the two issues, as it is evident that in recent times there is growing frustration and bitterness among Hezbollah supporters due to the delay in paying compensation for the damages caused in the last war or the failure to pay compensation or those whose compensation is not sufficient to rebuild the houses.

In addition, many complained about Hezbollah’s aid mechanism: in many areas, the victims were asked to repair the damage with their own money and submit the receipts to Hezbollah in order to receive reimbursements. This method caused anger among the Shiite base, which claimed that they had spent all their money during the war paying for rent or finding shelter elsewhere after they left their homes in areas where there was intense fighting, such as the Bekaa Valley, where Khalil Hammadi was killed, and therefore they had no money left to pay for the renovations and repairs after returning to their destroyed homes.

Above: An engineering team on behalf of the Construction Jihad in the field, the activity is entitled “Promise and Fulfillment”.

Lebanon – General:

January 25 – The Lebanese Army announced that it has completed its deployment in various areas of the southern Litani and is expanding its deployment in the central sector.

The Lebanese army announced the completion of the deployment of its units in the area south of the Litani after the withdrawal of Israeli forces from these areas.

The Lebanese Army Command issued a statement saying: “Military units were deployed in the towns of Al-Quazah, Dabel, Hanin, Beit Leif and Bint Jbeil in the central sector in the south of the Litani after the withdrawal of the Israeli enemy, in coordination with the five-member committee to supervise the ceasefire agreement.”

It was also reported that “the military command continues to coordinate closely with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) regarding the situation in the aforementioned area, within the framework of Resolution 1701.”

The day before, on January 24, the Lebanese army made additional deployment in two new communities in the southern Tyre district, following the withdrawal of the Israeli army.

The Lebanese army stated that its military units “are deployed today in the towns of Shihin and al-Jabin in the Tyre province after the withdrawal of the Israeli enemy from them.” He explained that this arrangement was made in coordination with the five-member committee overseeing the monitoring and implementation of the ceasefire agreement and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

Above: Debris removal activity begins in the village of Al-Jabin in the Tyre district after the deployment of Lebanese army forces.

Above: Demolition activity begins in the village of Shihin in the Tyre district after the deployment of Lebanese army forces.

January 26 (the day of the end of the original ceasefire) – Hezbollah returns to southern Lebanon

Since the morning, the Shiite base has been trying to return to a number of villages and areas in southern Lebanon that have been banned from entering.

Hezbollah urged and encouraged the activity and the Shiite base to return to the same places.

This was not a spontaneous event, but an organized one: advance announcements of organization, setting gathering times, gathering points, entry routes, and the like. It is possible that Hezbollah paid money in advance to some of the participants.

In our assessment, there was a physical presence of Hezbollah operatives on the ground.

The Lebanese army was unable to carry out its mission in preventing the events and the arrival of the Shiite base (in some cases it seems that it could not and did not want to do so).

Hezbollah is interested in friction and creating events in which the Lebanese will be injured. This is classic fuel for Hezbollah’s propaganda campaign: “Lebanese citizens want to return to their land and must be protected…” As far as Hezbollah is concerned, this reinforces the excuse why it should be there, because the Lebanese army cannot protect the “civilians” alone… The equation of “the people-army-resistance” (a central narrative in Hezbollah’s propaganda campaign) is more relevant than ever, and Hezbollah and its base are helping the army deploy.

The pictures of the events with the Shiite base waving Hezbollah flags / Nasrallah’s pictures are a platform to reinforce the “picture of victory” that Hezbollah so desperately wants to present to internal public opinion in Lebanon.

In addition, the events constituted a potential platform for terrorist activity against IDF forces (planned/occasional).

The Lebanese Ministry of Health’s Public Health Emergency Center issued a statement in the evening saying that 22 people were killed and 124 wounded during the day.

The following are the reactions of senior Lebanese officials:

President Joseph Aoun: This is a day of victory for Lebanon and the Lebanese, a victory for the right, sovereignty and national unity. As I share this great joy, I call on you to exercise restraint and trust in the Lebanese Armed Forces, who are eager to defend our sovereignty and security and to ensure your safe return to your homes.

Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are non-negotiable, and I am working on this issue at the highest levels to ensure your rights and dignity. The Lebanese Armed Forces are always with you, wherever you are, and will remain committed to protecting you and keeping you safe.

Together we will remain stronger, united under the Lebanese flag.

Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri: Congratulations and appreciation to the people of the villages on the southern border, and your actions today have confirmed that the indicators of nationalism and belonging to Lebanon are you. “The blood and injuries of the defenseless South Lebanese are a clear and urgent call to the international community and the countries sponsoring the ceasefire agreement to act immediately and urgently to compel Israel to immediately withdraw from Lebanese territory.”

Interim Prime Minister Najib Mikati: “Congratulations to our people who stand firm in the south, and especially to those who decided to return today and bravely confronted the fire of aggression. The nationalism of the people of the south has become an example that must be followed, and we call on the countries that supported the ceasefire understandings to bear their responsibility to deter aggression and force the Israeli enemy to withdraw from the territories it occupies.”

Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam called on President Joseph Aoun to monitor developments in the south. “I share with President Aoun his full confidence in the role of the army in defending Lebanon’s sovereignty and in ensuring the safe return of our people in the south.”

UNIFIL’s Special Coordinator, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, and UNIFIL’s Head of Mission and Commander-in-Chief, General Aroldo Lázaro, in a joint statement: “The conditions are not conducive to the safe return of civilians to their villages along the Blue Line, the deadlines set in the ceasefire agreement have not been met, the last chapter of the conflict is carried out through the commitment of the parties and the implementation of Resolution 1701.

January 26 – List of villages in southern Lebanon where residents have entered.

East:
Kafr Hamam – Kafr Shuba – Halta – Al-Khayyam – Ein Arab – Al-Wazani – Deir Sarian – Al-Quneitra – Al-Tayyiba – Adsit Al-Qusayr – Bani Hayyan – Talusa – Muhaibib – Einta – Bint Jbeil – Maroun a-Ras – Yaron – Jabab Al-Arab – Ayta a-Shaab – Ramiya – Beit Leef.

West:
Shihin – Al-Zlotiya – um a-Tut – Al-Bustan – Maruhin – Al-Jubein – Yarin – a-Duhaira – Shema – Al-Bayatza – Tir Harfa – Alma a-Sha’ab – A-Naqoura.

The villages where the Israeli army is still present:
Kafr Kila – Adissa – Rab Talatin – Merkava – Hula – Miss Al-Jabal – Bleida – Ithrun.

Palestinians:

January 21 – Mass marches in the Palestinian camps in Lebanon “to renew the pledge to resist”

The Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon held mass marches to rejoice “in the victory over the enemy that has not been able to achieve its goals in the Gaza Strip… This is despite the logistical and political support of the United States and the global alliance of evil forces…”

Hezbollah and Amal flags were waved in the parades and various weapons were displayed.

The Syrian Arena

IDF Activity in Syria

The IDF continues to operate in the buffer zone in order to remove any threat to the State of Israel and the residents of the north.

Syria General

January 24 – The first Syrian-Lebanese security meeting to establish a joint mechanism for controlling the border.

Syrian Chief of Staff Ali al-Naasan (pictured left) and the head of the Lebanese Army’s Ministry of Cooperation and Coordination, Michel Boutros, held a meeting to discuss the mechanism for controlling the border between the two countries.

The meeting took place at a sensitive time, against the background of the increase in smuggling activities on the Syrian-Lebanese border, especially in light of the recent seizure of large quantities of weapons and materials by the Lebanese security forces that were smuggled through the illegal border crossings.

Security sources confirmed that the Lebanese army is taking strict measures to control the border and combat the smuggling of people from Syria to Lebanon. The sources added that smuggling operations have increased significantly since the fall of the regime, as a result of the deterioration of security and economic stability in the border areas.

The sources noted that hundreds of Syrians cross into Lebanon every day through the northern areas near Homs, mainly from Quasir in the direction of Hush al-Sayyid Ali, al-Qasr and Harmel, where smuggling operations are carried out openly and in broad daylight.

January 25 – First direct attack against an American patrol force in the Syrian city of Hasakah.

According to local sources, for the first time, a direct attack was carried out on an American patrol in the Syrian city of Al-Hasakah, causing injuries among the soldiers. The sources noted that a convoy that included an American force was struck by an explosive device east of the city of Al-Hasakah. The attack resulted in a rapid response and intensive activity by American helicopters.

The incident is the first of its kind on American patrols in the city of Al-Hasakah and the surrounding area, an area where a number of American bases are located due to its strategic location.

January 26 – The Syrian government recruited 1,200 new soldiers in Deir ez-Zor.

The recruitment office of the new Syrian government in Deir ez-Zor recruited about 1,200 new recruits between the ages of 18 and 22 in order to send them to various courses in order to strengthen the manpower in the security and administrative institutions. Registration conditions include not being married and good health. In addition, the Syrian Interior Ministry announced the possibility of recruiting to the police through the police academy in Damascus.

Above: Syrian army new recruits to the in Deir ez-Zor.

January 26 – Arab tribes in Suwayda announce their support for the new government and their willingness to surrender their weapons.

A group of tribes in the As-Suwayda province in southern Syria, called the Southern Tribes Corporation, announced its support for the new Syrian government and their willingness to surrender their weapons.

In a video statement released on January 25, the corporation pledged to support internal peace and work in cooperation with the new administration to strengthen Syria’s national unity, stressing the importance of investing all efforts to achieve the country’s freedom and unity, and opposing division and sectarianism and attempts to divide Syria.

The corporation stated: “We, the members of the Suwayda tribes, will commit to standing as a wall against anyone who tries to destabilize or conspire against the unity of the state.”

January 26 – A shipment of weapons is seized in the Damascus countryside on its way to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The Syrian security forces seized a shipment of weapons in the suburbs of Damascus that they claimed was on its way to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Syrian Interior Ministry announced that the General Directorate of Border Security had managed to seize the shipment, which included Kalashnikovs and RPG launchers. Another shipment was seized on January 17 in the province of Tartus after continuous surveillance. The weapons and missiles were confiscated before they entered Lebanese territory.

Yemen – Houthi-Land:

In accordance with the ceasefire between Israel and the Gaza Strip, the Houthis ceased their offensive activity against Israel and against ships in the Red Sea.

January 22 – The crew of the hijacked ship Galaxy Leader is released.

The Houthis announced the release of the crew of the American ship, Galaxy Leader, who were held by them since November 2023, noting that this comes within the framework of the ceasefire in Gaza.

January 20 – The Houthis announce the “date for the lifting of the maritime embargo on ships connected to Israel.”

The Humanitarian Coordinator in Sana’a, Yemen, said that the Houthi organization in Yemen would limit its attacks on commercial vessels, striking vessels only linked to Israel, until all phases of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip were fully implemented.

The center, which is affiliated with the organization, which is responsible for communications between the Houthis and commercial cargo ship operators, said it had been decided to end the “sanctions” on vessels owned by individuals or entities from the United States or Britain or those flying the flag of one of the countries.

An email to the Shipping Authority dated January 19 stated: “We confirm that in the event of any aggression against the Republic of Yemen by the United States or the United Kingdom, sanctions will be reimposed on the aggressor.”

“We will notify you immediately of such measures if they are implemented.” According to them, the attack on vessels connected to Israel will cease “with the full implementation of all stages of the agreement between Israel and Hamas.”

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Alma Research

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